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MSWL UNITEDMSWL U2TMVL
Thursday, March 28th, 2024 - 01:38:57 PM (gmt)
 
ball MSWL UNITED ② Season 37 // Landing
 
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AFC Wimbledon
Dave Dohm
 
Welling United FC
Eduard Habermann
 
 
League Round 13
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

AFC WIMBLEDON                              WELLING UNITED FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Kenzie Ross            18    2   20     Gk Euan Fleming           16    2   18
Sw Riley O'Brien          14    2   16     Df Douglas Pereira        13    2   15
Df Harry Johnson          13    2   15     Df Louie Ince             14    2   16
Df Lee Robertson          12    2   14     Df Benjamin Charlton      14    1   15
Fw Oscar Hall             15    2   17     Df Morgan Barmby          17    2   19
Mf Aarron Shepherd        12    2   14     Df Ian Jackson             8    2   10
Mf Archie Blair           12    1   13     Mf Eoghan Carroll         16    2   18
Fw Paul Ellis             15    2   17     Mf Nicholas Clark         12    2   14
Fw Bradley McCarthy       15    2   17     Mf Josè Guerrero           8    2   10
Fw Josh MacDonald         13    2   15     Fw Greg Scott              9    2   11
Fw Isaac Howells           9    2   11     Fw Lorenzo Santana         9    2   11

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      20 16 29 27 77        ROSTER TOTALS      18  0 75 42 22    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  2  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       2  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      23 16 29 29 84         T O T A L S       19  0 75 42 22    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Kenzie Ross: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 46.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 86.96 (no red card)

Sw Riley O'Brien: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 46.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 88.84 (no red card)

Df Harry Johnson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 81.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 57.38 (no red card)

Df Lee Robertson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 38.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 35.79 (no red card)

Fw Oscar Hall: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 56.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 28.3 (no red card)

Mf Aarron Shepherd: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 46.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 7.82 (no red card)

Mf Archie Blair: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 35.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 50.77 (no red card)

Fw Paul Ellis: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 30.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 29.45 (no red card)

Fw Bradley McCarthy: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 88.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 35.51 (no red card)

Fw Josh MacDonald: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 12.61 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 82.74 (no red card)

Fw Isaac Howells: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 21.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 35.22 (no red card)

*******  WELLING UNITED FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Euan Fleming: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 43.27 (no red card)

Df Douglas Pereira: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 74.27 (no red card)

Df Louie Ince: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 3.92 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 11.3 (no second yellow)

Df Benjamin Charlton: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 16.05 (no red card)

Df Morgan Barmby: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 23.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 83.5 (no red card)

Df Ian Jackson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 57.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 29.07 (no red card)

Mf Eoghan Carroll: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 30.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 99.64 (no red card)

Mf Nicholas Clark: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 22.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 95.31 (no red card)

Mf Josè Guerrero: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 13.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 44.47 (no red card)

Fw Greg Scott: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 50.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 76.5 (no red card)

Fw Lorenzo Santana: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 99.92 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - Welling United FC Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Kenzie Ross: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 3.82 (no injury) 
Sw Riley O'Brien: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 65.51 (no injury) 
Df Harry Johnson: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 23.22 (no injury) 
Df Lee Robertson: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 95.0 (no injury) 
Fw Oscar Hall: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 65.19 (no injury) 
Mf Aarron Shepherd: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 48.65 (no injury) 
Mf Archie Blair: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 15.89 (no injury) 
Fw Paul Ellis: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 73.05 (no injury) 
Fw Bradley McCarthy: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 80.56 (no injury) 
Fw Josh MacDonald: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 11.96 (no injury) 
Fw Isaac Howells: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 58.38 (no injury) 

*******  WELLING UNITED FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Welling United FC Team Hardness = 1
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Euan Fleming: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 38.08 (no injury) 
Df Douglas Pereira: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 13.87 (no injury) 
Df Louie Ince: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 61.92 (no injury) 
Df Benjamin Charlton: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 7.93 (no injury) 
Df Morgan Barmby: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 75.55 (no injury) 
Df Ian Jackson: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 37.41 (no injury) 
Mf Eoghan Carroll: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 37.38 (no injury) 
Mf Nicholas Clark: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 47.25 (no injury) 
Mf Josè Guerrero: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 66.64 (no injury) 
Fw Greg Scott: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 56.45 (no injury) 
Fw Lorenzo Santana: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 12.54 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  WELLING UNITED FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Oscar Hall SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Euan Fleming SL 16

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 100 (no penalty kick)

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Morgan Barmby SL 17
   - Defending Gk: Kenzie Ross SL 18

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 93 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  AFC Wimbledon            23  16  29  29  84
  Welling United FC        19   0  75  42  22

Welling United FC is using Offside Trap!
AFC Wimbledon Fw Attacks = 5 (84 - 75) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Mf Attacks = 0 ((29 - 42) / 2;  rounded up)
AFC Wimbledon Df Attacks = 3 ((29 - 22) / 3); result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Df Harry Johnson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 63.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Lee Robertson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 67.3 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Harry Johnson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Fw Bradley McCarthy
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Fw Paul Ellis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 18.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Isaac Howells
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 84.64 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Fw Bradley McCarthy
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 17.06 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Josh MacDonald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Welling United FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 35.78 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  WELLING UNITED FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Welling United FC        19   0  75  42  22
  AFC Wimbledon            23  16  29  29  84

Welling United FC Fw Attacks = 0 (22 - 29)
Welling United FC Mf Attacks = 7 ((42 - 29) / 2) ; result rounded up
Welling United FC Df Attacks = 0 ((75 - 84) / 5;  rounded up)
Welling United FC Total Attacks = 7

1: Attack for Mf Nicholas Clark
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Nicholas Clark
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Nicholas Clark
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Eoghan Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Eoghan Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Eoghan Carroll
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 91.75% | Random number = 83.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Nicholas Clark
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
AFC WIMBLEDON 1  -  WELLING UNITED FC 0
 
Match Notes
How many marbles is this match for?!?
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 03/11 - 8:17 PM
Not as many as I wish it was.....Welling has to much of a cushion for the title.
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 03/11 - 10:05 PM
Welling could very well clinch the title here…..not good
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 03/16 - 12:20 AM
There's no such thing as home advantage when you play Welling. They haven't lost an away match in the league this season.
Jason (Kingstonian FC) 03/16 - 3:09 PM
@Dave: So much for your "fears" - and the cushion
Eduard (Welling United FC) 03/17 - 9:40 AM
If you only score 1 goal in 4 matches: make it count
Eduard (Welling United FC) 03/17 - 9:41 AM
Yes…..lack of goals is concerning for WIM
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 03/17 - 1:51 PM
 
 
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