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Forest Green Rovers FC
Mark Creasey
 
Marine FC
Derek Purvis
 
 
League Round 3
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC                     MARINE FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Kieran Singh            6    2    8     Gk Joe Cameron             9    0    9
Df Ellis Fisher            6    2    8     Df Tyler Reynolds          9    0    9
Df Michael Barker          4    0    4     Df Harrison Rowbotham      8    0    8
Df Mateo Hernández         3    2    5     Df Gordon Shaw             6    0    6
Df Theo Cole               3    2    5     Df Tihamér Pap             4    2    6
Mf Alfie Milner            4    0    4     Mf Harry Sinclair         10    0   10
Mf William Pedersen        3    2    5     Mf Giles Hanny             7    0    7
Mf Conor Farrell           3    2    5     Mf Bailey Hills            6    1    7
Fw Alf Abrahamsen         13    1   14     Fw Tony Murray             9    0    9
Fw Andrew Williamson       5    2    7     Fw Lucas Le gal            5    0    5
Fw Andrew Young            4    2    6     Fw Reuben Dowson           4    0    4

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
       8  0 22 14 27        ROSTER TOTALS       9  0 29 24 18    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  3  3  3    
       0  0  0  0  7       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
       8  0 22 14 34         T O T A L S        9  0 32 27 21    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Kieran Singh: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 66.01 (no red card)

Df Ellis Fisher: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.1 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.7 (no second yellow)

Df Michael Barker: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.35 (no red card)

Df Mateo Hernández: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 79.03 (no red card)

Df Theo Cole: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 94.91 (no red card)

Mf Alfie Milner: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.91 (no red card)

Mf William Pedersen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.8 (no red card)

Mf Conor Farrell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.1 (no red card)

Fw Alf Abrahamsen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.67 (no red card)

Fw Andrew Williamson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.5 (no red card)

Fw Andrew Young: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 82.9 (no red card)

*******  MARINE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 9
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Joe Cameron: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.68 (no red card)

Df Tyler Reynolds: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 1.34 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 42.08 (no second yellow)

Df Harrison Rowbotham: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 94.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 75.66 (no red card)

Df Gordon Shaw: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 81.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 55.58 (no red card)

Df Tihamér Pap: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 84.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 30.58 (no red card)

Mf Harry Sinclair: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 39.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 60.88 (no red card)

Mf Giles Hanny: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 29.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 88.38 (no red card)

Mf Bailey Hills: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 46.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 32.78 (no red card)

Fw Tony Murray: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 9.57 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 92.4 (no second yellow)

Fw Lucas Le gal: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 8.19 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 19.82 (no second yellow)

Fw Reuben Dowson: Chance of booking = 18.0% | Random number = 47.83 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.0% | Random number = 63.64 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Forest Green Rovers FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Marine FC Team Hardness = 9
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 9.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 4.62%
Gk Kieran Singh: Chance of injury = 4.62% | Random number = 42.79 (no injury) 
Df Ellis Fisher: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 44.87 (no injury) 
Df Michael Barker: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 3.1 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 2
      Michael Barker loses 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Michael Barker new match skill level =  2
      Michael Barker new match total level =  2
Df Mateo Hernández: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 75.0 (no injury) 
Df Theo Cole: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 45.7 (no injury) 
Mf Alfie Milner: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 94.04 (no injury) 
Mf William Pedersen: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 33.43 (no injury) 
Mf Conor Farrell: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 23.47 (no injury) 
Fw Alf Abrahamsen: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 37.68 (no injury) 
Fw Andrew Williamson: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 78.13 (no injury) 
Fw Andrew Young: Chance of injury = 9.25% | Random number = 94.07 (no injury) 

*******  MARINE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Marine FC Team Hardness = 9
   - Forest Green Rovers FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.37%
Gk Joe Cameron: Chance of injury = 2.37% | Random number = 67.96 (no injury) 
Df Tyler Reynolds: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 47.2 (no injury) 
Df Harrison Rowbotham: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 45.46 (no injury) 
Df Gordon Shaw: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 57.51 (no injury) 
Df Tihamér Pap: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 11.53 (no injury) 
Mf Harry Sinclair: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 16.7 (no injury) 
Mf Giles Hanny: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 10.49 (no injury) 
Mf Bailey Hills: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 3.7 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Bailey Hills is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Fw Tony Murray: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 33.25 (no injury) 
Fw Lucas Le gal: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 37.96 (no injury) 
Fw Reuben Dowson: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 48.42 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  MARINE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 9; (9 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Alf Abrahamsen SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Joe Cameron SL 9

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 47 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 34 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 36 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 33 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 58 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 77 (no penalty kick)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 23 (no penalty kick)
8: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 27 (no penalty kick)
9: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 41 (no penalty kick)

*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Harry Sinclair SL 10
   - Defending Gk: Kieran Singh SL 6

     intRndPk = 44
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 44 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Forest Green Rovers FC   8   0  20  14  34
  Marine FC                9   0  32  27  21

Forest Green Rovers FC Fw Attacks = 2 (34 - 32); result rounded up
Forest Green Rovers FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((14 - 27) / 2;  rounded up)
Forest Green Rovers FC Df Attacks = 0 ((20 - 21) / 5;  rounded up)
Forest Green Rovers FC Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Fw Andrew Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Marine FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Fw Alf Abrahamsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Marine FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 60.25% | Random number = 52.99 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  MARINE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Marine FC                9   0  32  27  21
  Forest Green Rovers FC   8   0  20  14  34

Marine FC Fw Attacks = 1 (21 - 20); result rounded up
Marine FC Mf Attacks = 7 ((27 - 14) / 2) ; result rounded up
Marine FC Df Attacks = 0 ((32 - 34) / 5;  rounded up)
Marine FC Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Mf Harry Sinclair
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Bailey Hills
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Mf Harry Sinclair
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Harry Sinclair
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 39.71 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Mf Harry Sinclair
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 83.53 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
6: Attack for Mf Harry Sinclair
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 30.73 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Bailey Hills
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 38.0 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Lucas Le gal
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 69.95 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC 0  -  MARINE FC 2
 
Match Notes
got home bonus so need give it a go
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 02/08 - 10:01 PM
gave it a go...
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 02/17 - 3:01 PM
apologies to the home fans
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 02/17 - 3:01 PM
 
 
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