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Pitcher's At Bat...
Posted by Allan Sellers on Wednesday, May. 4th, 2011 at 3:10 PM

 

I received a question on how pitchers will hit, especially if they have low numbers of total plate appearances (TPAs).

We've set the bar at a minimum of 40 TPAs for a non-pitcher to be considered for the draft.  I'm thinking we might do the same here.  If a pitcher has 40+ TPAs we use his numbers for hitting.  If he has less we use a "default" value with perhaps some variability for each game.

I'd like to get some thoughts on this and also some possible approaches (like what averages to use).

I don't think we ever addressed this properly in the original simulator so now's a good time to develop a plan.

Readers Comments

I see two options...

1) If  TPA < 40, then use the lowest numbers for pitchers >= 40 TPA

2) If TPA < 40, then use the average numbers for pitchers >= 40 TPA, with a percentage penalty (I suggest 25%)

Rob Peterson on Wednesday, May. 4th, 2011 at 5:48 PM
 

I was going to suggest the same plan as Rob's number 2 plan.  25% penalty from the mean is a good idea too.

James Tucker on Wednesday, May. 4th, 2011 at 10:19 PM
 

Here's an approach Kevin developed using these assumptions:
- averaged out real stats for pitchers with between 25 & 50 TPA,
- picked numbers for the purpose of creating stats that left the overall averages pretty similar to the real life averages. 

Pitcher Hitting Type

 

TPA

AB

H

1b

2b

3b

HR

BB

SO

SB

CS

OBP

SLG

AVG

Left-hander

vs LHP

14

13

1

1

0

0

0

0

5

0

0

0.077

0.077

0.077

 

vs RHP

26

24

4

3

1

0

0

2

7

0

0

0.231

0.208

0.167

 

Total

40

37

5

4

1

0

0

2

12

0

0

0.179

0.162

0.135

                

Right-hander

vs LHP

13

11

2

2

0

0

0

1

4

0

0

0.250

0.182

0.182

 

vs RHP

27

25

3

3

0

0

0

1

7

0

0

0.154

0.120

0.120

 

Total

40

36

5

5

0

0

0

2

11

0

0

0.184

0.139

0.139

                
                
 
 
Allan Sellers on Thursday, May. 26th, 2011 at 11:39 AM
 

I've got no complaints with Kevin's suggestion. It's simple and straightforward.

Rob Peterson on Thursday, May. 26th, 2011 at 5:07 PM
 

Fine with Kevin's plan, to the degree I get it.

Or just give all pitchers a .100 BA, .120 OBA, and .075 SLG--if at all reasonable,

--jay

Jay Wilkins on Friday, May. 27th, 2011 at 4:56 PM
 

My suggestion is more complicated (surprise).. if the pitcher did indeed bat .400 in 20 AB then that's what he does.  Am I dare suggesting he bat .400 for 110 ABs?  Nope.  I'm thinking that he is what he is until he reaches his TPA, after the TPA he becomes a shell of himself, so to speak, and bats a drastically reduced version of his ability.  I'm going to look up some pitchers right now but basically I bring up this idea to retain some individuality amongst the pitchers, especially for those who can't pitch all that well... yes, I'm looking at you Rick Ankiel!

Rob Baptiste on Saturday, Jun. 4th, 2011 at 1:42 PM
 

I haven't worked out the math yet but I'm think 

<+TPA: AVG * 1

> TPA: RLA + (0.01 * AVG * TPA)

So if a LHB pitcher batted a 1.000 vs. a RHP due to going 1-1 in a game his very next AB would be calculated as:

.231 + (0.01 * 1.000 * 1) = .241

I'm doing this real time so if my formula backfires here, you'll all see it when I do.

Raul Valdes (LHB) 4 for 8 (12 PA) vs. RHP

PA #13: .231 + (0.01 * .500 * 8) = .271 (hmmm, that might be too high even if he's a .500 hitter)

Maybe the factor is .5% (0.005) but this is just a suggestion and I don't expect it to be implemented anyway.

Checking the greatest "gain" factor now...

.231 + (0.005 * 1.000 * 40) = .431 (that's high but man going 40 for 40 means this guy might be a .400+ hitter)

Well, if you don't want every P to be an automatic (or at least totally "predicatable") out there is my suggestion, the .5% not 1%.

Raul Valdes incidentally becomes a .251 hitter, perhaps not so unreasonable

 

Rob Baptiste on Saturday, Jun. 4th, 2011 at 2:05 PM