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Gameplay

Last updated on Sunday, June 2nd, 2013

We are enhancing the simulator that we had used prior to last season. Its a homegrown application.

With the new game, rather than using "real life" stats from a real player's previous season we are using "skills" at various key areas of the game to determine how a player performs. Those skills will grow and decline over time as a player gets more seasoning and starts to lose skill with aging.

This page will be further built out as details are worked through.

The intention will be to continue to integrate the various player skills into the formulas over time. Initially the game will be punitive to teams playing fielders OOP. In future seasons there may be the possibility to "qualify" a player at another position by playing them at that position for a certain number of Major league games. Likewise I'd like to swap higher error rates for higher hitting rates when players are playing OOP or are poor fielders to reflect "range". Some bad fielders in reality don't make errors because they simply don't have the range to get to a ball, thus those should be hits (season 2+ changes). For season 1 there will also be injuries. They will be "end of game injuries" and won't impact the game as played. In the future they may be in-game injuries as well.

I'll be adding sacrifice bunting and stolen bases to this.



Walk

To determine if a batter gets a walk, the batter's On Base and Pitcher's Control skills are referenced.

OnBase - Hitters Table

OnBase SL OnBase Percentage
0 0.040
1 0.040
2 0.040
3 0.047
4 0.054
5 0.061
6 0.068
7 0.075
8 0.082
9 0.089
10 0.096
11 0.103
12 0.110
13 0.117
14 0.124
15 0.131
16 0.138
17 0.145

Control - Pitchers Table

Control SL Control Percentage
0 0.145
1 0.145
2 0.145
3 0.138
4 0.131
5 0.124
6 0.117
7 0.110
8 0.103
9 0.096
10 0.089
11 0.082
12 0.075
13 0.068
14 0.061
15 0.054
16 0.047
17 0.040
There is also a variance of 0.03 that results in a higher chance of a walk if the matchup is favorable to the hitter or a lower chance of a walk if the matchup is favorable to the pitcher.

Control - Pitchers Table

Control SL Control Percentage
0 0.015
1 0.035
2 0.055
3 0.075
4 0.095
5 0.115
6 0.135
7 0.155
8 0.175
9 0.195
10 0.215
11 0.235
12 0.255
13 0.275
14 0.295
15 0.315
16 0.335
17 0.355
Here's an example of how a result is determined:

 HITTER VS. PITCHER MATCHUP
  Hitter = Enrique Durango Bats L
  Pitcher = Michael George Throws R
 CHECK FOR WALK
    Enrique Durango has an On Base SL of 12 (.100 walk chance) or the following chance in 1000: 100
    Jerry Hampton has a Control of 6 (.120 walk chance).   The Walk Variance (favorable matchup for hitter RHP vs LHB)
          of .030 is added and becomes .150 or the following chance in 1000: 150
    Away Team Modifier: Chance of walk reduced by 1.5%
    Chance of Walk = 246 out of 2000
    --> Enrique Durango does not walk. (Random number = 1525)
                    
Thus in the above example the encounter did not result in a walk (needed a random number of 246 or less.

Strike Out (K)

If no walk occurs the program next checks to see if the outcome is a strikeout (K).

The following table helps to determine whether a pitcher gets a strikeout:

Strikeout Chance - Pitchers Table

Velocity SL Velocity K Chance Control SL Control K Adjustment
0 0.015 0 -0.120
1 0.035 1 -0.120
2 0.055 2 -0.120
3 0.075 3 -0.105
4 0.095 4 -0.090
5 0.115 5 -0.075
6 0.135 6 -0.060
7 0.155 7 -0.045
8 0.175 8 -0.030
9 0.195 9 -0.015
10 0.215 10 0.000
11 0.235 11 0.015
12 0.255 12 0.030
13 0.275 13 0.045
14 0.295 14 0.060
15 0.315 15 0.075
16 0.335 16 0.090
17 0.355 17 0.105



    CHECK FOR STRIKE OUT
    Enrique Durango has an On Base SL of 12 and a Power SL of 12.
        We take On Base - (Power/2) to get a starting point (12 - (12/2) = 6.
        Then we multiply 6 * -1 and add the SO_Base_Chance of .250 (represented as 250) for 190 or a 19% chance of striking out.
    Jerry Hampton has a Velocity of 10 and a Control of 6.
        Thus he has a .215 chance based on his velocity and that is adjusted by -.060 based on his control for .155.
        Since this is an unfavorable matchup for the pitcher (RHP vs LHB) his chance is adjusted down by .030 or .125
        Thus he has a 12.5 chance of striking out the batter...
    Away Team Modifier: Chance of strikeout increased by 1.5%
    Chance of Strikeout = 319 out of 2000
    --> No strike out. Random Number = 349


                    

Hit

If no walk or strikeout occurs the program next checks to see if the outcome is a hit.

Average - Hitters Table

OnBase SL Avg
0 0.230
1 0.230
2 0.230
3 0.242
4 0.254
5 0.266
6 0.278
7 0.290
8 0.302
9 0.314
10 0.326
11 0.338
12 0.350
13 0.362
14 0.374
15 0.386
16 0.398
17 0.410

Control - Pitchers Table

Control SL Avg Allowed Velocity SL Avg Adjustment
0 0.370 0 0.035
1 0.370 1 0.035
2 0.370 2 0.030
3 0.360 3 0.025
4 0.350 4 0.020
5 0.340 5 0.015
6 0.330 6 0.010
7 0.320 7 0.005
8 0.310 8 0.000
9 0.300 9 -0.005
10 0.290 10 -0.010
11 0.280 11 -0.015
12 0.270 12 -0.020
13 0.260 13 -0.025
14 0.250 14 -0.030
15 0.240 15 -0.035
16 0.230 16 -0.040
17 0.220 17 -0.045
 HITTER VS. PITCHER MATCHUP
  Hitter = Stephen Thomas Bats R
  Pitcher = Jerry Hampton Throws R
 CHECK FOR HIT
    Stephen Thomas has an On Base SL of 14 for a chance in 1000: 374
    Jerry Hampton has a Control SL of 6 for an average allowed of .300.
         He has a Velocity SL of 10 for an adjustment of -.010 or .290
         He has a favorable matchup (RHP vs RHB) for an adjustment of -.045 and a chance in 1000: 245
    Away Team Modifier: Chance of hit reduced by 1.5%
    Chance of Hit = 609 out of 2000
    --> Stephen Thomas gets a hit! Random number = 433


If the play results in a hit the following tables are consulted to determine the type of hit:

Hit Type - Hitters Table

Power SL 1b 2b 3b HR
0 0.950 0.050 0.000 0.000
1 0.920 0.070 0.000 0.010
2 0.890 0.090 0.000 0.020
3 0.860 0.110 0.000 0.030
4 0.830 0.130 0.000 0.040
5 0.800 0.150 0.000 0.050
6 0.770 0.170 0.000 0.060
7 0.740 0.190 0.000 0.070
8 0.710 0.210 0.000 0.080
9 0.680 0.230 0.000 0.090
10 0.650 0.250 0.000 0.100
11 0.620 0.270 0.000 0.110
12 0.590 0.290 0.000 0.120
13 0.560 0.310 0.000 0.130
14 0.530 0.330 0.000 0.140
15 0.500 0.350 0.000 0.150
16 0.470 0.370 0.000 0.160
17 0.440 0.390 0.000 0.170

Hit Type Allowed - Pitchers Table

Control SL 1b 2b 3b HR Velocity SL 1b 2b 3b HR
0 3.000 3.000 1.000 2.000 0 3.000 3.000 1.000 2.000
1 3.000 3.000 1.000 2.000 1 3.000 3.000 1.000 2.000
2 3.000 3.000 1.000 2.000 2 3.000 3.000 1.000 2.000
3 3.400 2.900 0.700 1.900 3 3.400 2.900 0.700 1.900
4 3.800 2.800 0.680 1.800 4 3.800 2.800 0.680 1.800
5 4.200 2.700 0.660 1.700 5 4.200 2.700 0.660 1.700
6 4.600 2.600 0.640 1.600 6 4.600 2.600 0.640 1.600
7 5.000 2.500 0.620 1.500 7 5.000 2.500 0.620 1.500
8 5.400 2.400 0.600 1.400 8 5.400 2.400 0.600 1.400
9 5.800 2.300 0.580 1.300 9 5.800 2.300 0.580 1.300
10 6.200 2.200 0.560 1.200 10 6.200 2.200 0.560 1.200
11 6.600 2.100 0.540 1.100 11 6.600 2.100 0.540 1.100
12 7.000 2.000 0.520 1.000 12 7.000 2.000 0.520 1.000
13 7.400 1.900 0.500 0.900 13 7.400 1.900 0.500 0.900
14 7.800 1.800 0.480 0.800 14 7.800 1.800 0.480 0.800
15 8.200 1.700 0.460 0.700 15 8.200 1.700 0.460 0.700
16 8.600 1.600 0.440 0.600 16 8.600 1.600 0.440 0.600
17 9.000 1.500 0.420 0.500 17 9.000 1.500 0.420 0.500
   DETERMINE TYPE OF HIT
     Stephen Thomas has a Power SL of 12, so his chances in 1000 of 1b/2b/3b/hr: 590/290/0/120
     Jerry Hampton has a control of 6 and a velocity of 10.
         Using the table above (combining Control/Velocity SLs/chances) his actual hit chance in 1000 of allowing 1b/2b/3b/hr: 551/244/61/142
     Stephen Thomas has an actual chance in 2000 of 1b/2b/3b/hr: 1141/534/61/262
     Single = 1-1141; Double = 1142-1675; Triple = 1676-1736; Home Run = 1737-1998
     --> Stephen Thomas singles! (Random number = 1031)

                    

Fly Out, Ground Out, or Error

If there is no hit then the program determines if the result is a Fly Out, Ground Out or Error.

This table determines the chance of a ground out.

Ground Out - Pitchers

Control SL Control Ground Out Chance Velocity SL Velocity Ground Out Adjustment
0 0.150 0 0.250
1 0.150 1 0.250
2 0.150 2 0.250
3 0.190 3 0.210
4 0.230 4 0.170
5 0.270 5 0.130
6 0.310 6 0.090
7 0.350 7 0.050
8 0.390 8 0.010
9 0.430 9 -0.030
10 0.470 10 -0.070
11 0.510 11 -0.110
12 0.550 12 -0.150
13 0.590 13 -0.190
14 0.630 14 -0.230
15 0.670 15 -0.270
16 0.710 16 -0.310
17 0.750 17 -0.350

Fielding Pct By Position

Fielding SL p c 1b 2b 3b ss lf cf rf
0 0.910 0.968 0.970 0.960 0.910 0.940 0.930 0.940 0.930
1 0.915 0.968 0.970 0.960 0.910 0.940 0.930 0.940 0.930
2 0.920 0.968 0.970 0.960 0.910 0.940 0.930 0.940 0.930
3 0.925 0.970 0.973 0.963 0.915 0.944 0.938 0.944 0.938
4 0.930 0.972 0.976 0.966 0.920 0.948 0.946 0.948 0.946
5 0.935 0.974 0.979 0.969 0.925 0.952 0.954 0.952 0.954
6 0.940 0.976 0.982 0.972 0.930 0.956 0.962 0.957 0.962
7 0.945 0.978 0.985 0.975 0.935 0.960 0.967 0.962 0.967
8 0.950 0.980 0.988 0.978 0.940 0.964 0.971 0.967 0.971
9 0.955 0.982 0.991 0.981 0.945 0.968 0.974 0.972 0.974
10 0.960 0.984 0.992 0.984 0.950 0.972 0.977 0.976 0.977
11 0.965 0.986 0.993 0.986 0.955 0.975 0.980 0.980 0.980
12 0.970 0.988 0.994 0.988 0.960 0.978 0.983 0.983 0.983
13 0.975 0.990 0.995 0.990 0.965 0.981 0.986 0.986 0.986
14 0.980 0.992 0.996 0.992 0.970 0.984 0.989 0.989 0.989
15 0.985 0.994 0.997 0.994 0.975 0.987 0.992 0.992 0.992
16 0.990 0.996 0.998 0.996 0.980 0.990 0.995 0.995 0.995
17 0.995 0.998 0.999 0.998 0.985 0.993 0.998 0.998 0.998
 CHECK FOR FLY OUT, GROUND OUT OR ERROR
    The Pitcher, Jerry Hampton has a control of 6 (.310) and a velocity of 10 (-.070).
    Chance of Ground Out = 240/ Random Number = 799
    Check for error on fly ball
    Ball hit to Gregory Upham (CF) who is a SL 14 Fielder - Fielding Pct: 0.989
    Home Team Error Modifier: Fielding percentage increased by .005
    No error occurred (random/fielding = 143/994)
    --> Ralph Wood flied out to cf

Players who play out of position will play at 90% of their normal fielding percentage. Hopefully we can revise this further. This is just a starting point. An example is below. Shawn Baker is a 2b player (SL 4 fielding). As an SL 4 he would have a fielding rate of .948 as a ss before the penalty. With the penalty he drops to .853.
 CHECK FOR FLY OUT, GROUND OUT OR ERROR
    Chance of Ground Out = 280/ Random Number = 183
    Check for error on ground ball
    Ball hit to Shawn Baker (SS) - Fielding Pct: 0.8532
    Home Team Error Modifier: Fielding percentage increased by .005
    ERROR! (random/fielding = 949/858)
       Shawn Baker charged with an error!
    hitter to first, runners advance one base

Fielding will likely be further enhanced such that players with lower SLs may not incur as many errors but would end up causing more hits for the opposition as their range is poor so they would not get to as many balls.
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