(H)
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brian Beerman
League Round 15
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S SWANSEA CITY AFC BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gk Michel Vargas 11 2 13 Gk Ko Endo 2 0 2 Df Tony Ford 12 2 14 Sw Bradley Perry 5 2 7 Df Gharib Alami 11 2 13 Df Michael Addo 13 2 15 Df Lucas Stuhr 11 2 13 Df Niklas Köhler 12 2 14 Df Enrique Masis 9 2 11 Df Óscar Cespedes 9 2 11 Mf Khalid Idrissi 14 2 16 Df Eric Aidoo 9 2 11 Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene 13 0 13 Mf Ibrahim Yusuf 13 2 15 Fw Michaël Van der heijden15 2 17 Mf Raouf Salem 9 2 11 Fw Maximillian Hoffmann 15 -1 14 Fw Elliot Wilkins 18 1 19 Fw Ollie Hart 14 2 16 Fw Hideaki Endo 13 2 15 Fw Gerry Maclaren 9 2 11 Fw Khalilou Konaté 13 2 15 Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 13 0 51 29 58 ROSTER TOTALS 2 7 51 26 49 0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0 ======================================================================= 13 0 51 32 64 T O T A L S 2 10 51 26 49 ============================================================================ ============================================================================ B O O K I N G S Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows: - Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)) - Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))) If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off. If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points. ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Michel Vargas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.2 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 77.36 (no red card) Df Tony Ford: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.97 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.25 (no red card) Df Gharib Alami: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.19 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 30.52 (no red card) Df Lucas Stuhr: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.78 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.61 (no red card) Df Enrique Masis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.87 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.3 (no red card) Mf Khalid Idrissi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.68 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.34 (no red card) Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 53.98 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 66.58 (no red card) Fw Michaël Van der heijden: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.99 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.47 (no red card) Fw Maximillian Hoffmann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.25 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.54 (no red card) Fw Ollie Hart: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.46 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 20.78 (no red card) Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 74.08 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.54 (no red card) ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Ko Endo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.44 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 23.43 (no red card) Sw Bradley Perry: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.29 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 51.59 (no red card) Df Michael Addo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.88 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.79 (no red card) Df Niklas Köhler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.12 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.38 (no red card) Df Óscar Cespedes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 67.3 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 75.5 (no red card) Df Eric Aidoo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.03 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.65 (no red card) Mf Ibrahim Yusuf: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.36 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.85 (no red card) Mf Raouf Salem: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.87 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.7 (no red card) Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.47 (BOOKED!) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.74 (no second yellow) Fw Hideaki Endo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.59 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.64 (no red card) Fw Khalilou Konaté: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.96 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.74 (no red card) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ I N J U R I E S A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. For each player the chance of injury is: ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%. For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4, the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%. The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured. Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss, 15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply. ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0 - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5% - Gk chance of injury = 1.25% Gk Michel Vargas: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 12.46 (no injury) Df Tony Ford: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 83.99 (no injury) Df Gharib Alami: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.86 (no injury) Df Lucas Stuhr: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.95 (no injury) Df Enrique Masis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 18.95 (no injury) Mf Khalid Idrissi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.14 (no injury) Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.02 (no injury) Fw Michaël Van der heijden: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.16 (no injury) Fw Maximillian Hoffmann: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 71.36 (no injury) Fw Ollie Hart: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.17 (no injury) Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.7 (no injury) ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0 - Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5% - Gk chance of injury = 1.25% Gk Ko Endo: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 97.71 (no injury) Sw Bradley Perry: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 52.98 (no injury) Df Michael Addo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.92 (no injury) Df Niklas Köhler: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.89 (no injury) Df Óscar Cespedes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.97 (no injury) Df Eric Aidoo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.34 (no injury) Mf Ibrahim Yusuf: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 51.91 (no injury) Mf Raouf Salem: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 98.38 (no injury) Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.95 (no injury) Fw Hideaki Endo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.32 (no injury) Fw Khalilou Konaté: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 10.9 (no injury) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ P E N A L T Y K I C K S There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used. Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. The chance of a penalty being scored is: 50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%) ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Michaël Van der heijden SL 15 - Defending Gk: Ko Endo SL 2 intRndPk = 19 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 19 (no penalty kick) ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Elliot Wilkins SL 18 - Defending Gk: Michel Vargas SL 11 intRndPk = 76 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 76 (no penalty kick) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S (i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference. Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! (ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half the difference. (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference. If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up, and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many produce shots, then goals: (iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack, there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to: 30 + (Sw level x 2) % (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the Sw become shots. (v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored 2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored, to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!) (vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to the Sw test, but the percentage is: 40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled. A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved (round up fractions). ******* SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Swansea City AFC 13 0 51 32 64 Brighton & Hove Albion 2 10 51 26 49 Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 13 (64 - 51); result rounded up Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 3 ((32 - 26) / 2) ; result rounded up Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 1 ((51 - 49) / 5); result rounded up Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 17 1: Attack for Df Enrique Masis Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 2: Attack for Mf Khalid Idrissi Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 3: Attack for Mf Ghailene Bouzaiene Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 44.5% | Random number = 17.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 4: Attack for Mf Khalid Idrissi Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 5: Attack for Fw Maximillian Hoffmann Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target) 6: Attack for Fw Ollie Hart Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 7: Attack for Fw Maximillian Hoffmann Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 44.5% | Random number = 12.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 8: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 9: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 22 (Shot Off Target) 10: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 11: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 12: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 13: Attack for Fw Michaël Van der heijden Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 14: Attack for Fw Maximillian Hoffmann Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 3 (Shot Off Target) 15: Attack for Fw Maximillian Hoffmann Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 44.5% | Random number = 91.75 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 16: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 44.5% | Random number = 81.3 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 17: Attack for Fw Ollie Hart Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Brighton & Hove Albion 2 10 51 26 49 Swansea City AFC 13 0 51 32 64 Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 0 (49 - 51) Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 0 ((26 - 32) / 2; rounded up) Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 0 ((51 - 64) / 3; rounded up) Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 0 =============================================== F I N A L S C O R E SWANSEA CITY AFC 2 - BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 0
Match Notes
Those of you who bet on Roy's Swans should feel good about your decision.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 03/21 - 12:00 PM
Pretty much what I expected.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 03/23 - 6:11 PM