(H)
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brian Beerman
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
League Round 5
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CARLISLE UNITED Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gk Reuben Lennon 15 1 16 Gk Xavier Lambert 6 2 8 Sw Théo Billard 14 2 16 Sw Lewis Russell 11 0 11 Df Niklas Köhler 12 1 13 Df Shay Finnan 9 1 10 Df Michael Addo 11 2 13 Df Toshihiro Nakamura 6 2 8 Df Óscar Cespedes 6 2 8 Df Jacob Beynon 3 2 5 Df Eric Aidoo 6 2 8 Df Ben Ince 11 0 11 Mf Ibrahim Yusuf 11 2 13 Mf Peter Bengtsson 12 1 13 Mf Raouf Salem 6 2 8 Mf Jacek Frankowski 6 2 8 Mf Rigobert Mahamat 6 2 8 Mf Marcus Teulet 3 2 5 Fw Elliot Wilkins 17 2 19 Fw Takeshi Fukunishi 6 2 8 Fw Khalilou Konaté 10 2 12 Fw Javier Gimenez 3 2 5 Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 16 42 29 31 ROSTER TOTALS 8 11 34 26 13 0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 7 0 0 ======================================================================= 16 16 42 29 40 T O T A L S 11 11 41 26 13 ============================================================================ ============================================================================ B O O K I N G S Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows: - Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)) - Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))) If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off. If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points. ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Reuben Lennon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.55 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 10.45 (no red card) Sw Théo Billard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.98 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 66.47 (no red card) Df Niklas Köhler: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.92 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 73.19 (no red card) Df Michael Addo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.47 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.37 (no red card) Df Óscar Cespedes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.8 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.52 (no red card) Df Eric Aidoo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.7 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.47 (no red card) Mf Ibrahim Yusuf: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.0 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 35.57 (no red card) Mf Raouf Salem: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.39 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 25.68 (no red card) Mf Rigobert Mahamat: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.38 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.51 (no red card) Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.22 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 20.87 (no red card) Fw Khalilou Konaté: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.93 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.53 (no red card) ******* CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES ******* - Team Hardness = 0 - Gk Hardness = 0 Gk Xavier Lambert: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.31 (no booking) Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 55.28 (no red card) Sw Lewis Russell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.48 (BOOKED!) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.11 (no second yellow) Df Shay Finnan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.45 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.13 (no red card) Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.69 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.77 (no red card) Df Jacob Beynon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.47 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 52.72 (no red card) Df Ben Ince: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.5 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 22.69 (no red card) Mf Peter Bengtsson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.01 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 64.03 (no red card) Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.36 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.76 (no red card) Mf Marcus Teulet: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.24 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.59 (no red card) Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 36.61 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.4 (no red card) Fw Javier Gimenez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.84 (no booking) Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.83 (no red card) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ I N J U R I E S A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. For each player the chance of injury is: ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%. For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4, the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%. The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured. Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss, 15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply. ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0 - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5% - Gk chance of injury = 1.25% Gk Reuben Lennon: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 80.51 (no injury) Sw Théo Billard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 9.16 (no injury) Df Niklas Köhler: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 29.55 (no injury) Df Michael Addo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.66 (no injury) Df Óscar Cespedes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.53 (no injury) Df Eric Aidoo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.16 (no injury) Mf Ibrahim Yusuf: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.86 (no injury) Mf Raouf Salem: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.79 (no injury) Mf Rigobert Mahamat: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.12 (no injury) Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.02 (no injury) Fw Khalilou Konaté: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.84 (no injury) ******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY ******* - Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0 - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 0 - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5% - Gk chance of injury = 1.25% Gk Xavier Lambert: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 1.44 (no injury) Sw Lewis Russell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.62 (no injury) Df Shay Finnan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.06 (no injury) Df Toshihiro Nakamura: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 49.25 (no injury) Df Jacob Beynon: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.51 (no injury) Df Ben Ince: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.71 (no injury) Mf Peter Bengtsson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.07 (no injury) Mf Jacek Frankowski: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 14.05 (no injury) Mf Marcus Teulet: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.02 (INJURED!) Targeted fitness lost = 2 Marcus Teulet is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 1 fitness points (deducted at end of session) Marcus Teulet new match skill level = 2 Marcus Teulet new match total level = 4 Fw Takeshi Fukunishi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.0 (no injury) Fw Javier Gimenez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.23 (no injury) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ P E N A L T Y K I C K S There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used. Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. The chance of a penalty being scored is: 50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%) ******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Elliot Wilkins SL 17 - Defending Gk: Xavier Lambert SL 6 intRndPk = 32 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 32 (no penalty kick) ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS ******* - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK) - PK Taker: Peter Bengtsson SL 12 - Defending Gk: Reuben Lennon SL 15 intRndPk = 75 1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 75 (no penalty kick) ============================================================================ ============================================================================ A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S (i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference. Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! (ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half the difference. (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference. If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up, and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many produce shots, then goals: (iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack, there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to: 30 + (Sw level x 2) % (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the Sw become shots. (v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored 2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored, to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!) (vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to the Sw test, but the percentage is: 40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled. A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved (round up fractions). ******* BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Brighton & Hove Albion 16 16 42 29 40 Carlisle United 11 11 41 25 13 Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 0 (40 - 41) Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 2 ((29 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 10 ((42 - 13) / 3); result rounded up Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 12 1: Attack for Df Niklas Köhler Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 2: Attack for Df Michael Addo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 3: Attack for Df Michael Addo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 4: Attack for Df Eric Aidoo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 5: Attack for Df Michael Addo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 64.61 (Shot Saved by Gk) 6: Attack for Df Niklas Köhler Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 7: Attack for Df Óscar Cespedes Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 75.07 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 8: Attack for Df Eric Aidoo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 9: Attack for Df Michael Addo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 10: Attack for Df Michael Addo Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 11: Attack for Mf Ibrahim Yusuf Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 54 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target) 12: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target) ******* CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS ******* AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw ------------------------------------------- Carlisle United 11 11 41 25 13 Brighton & Hove Albion 16 16 42 29 40 Carlisle United is Playing For A Draw! Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (13 - 42) Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 29) / 2; rounded up) Carlisle United Df Attacks = 1 ((41 - 40) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up Carlisle United Total Attacks = 1 1: Attack for Df Ben Ince Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) =============================================== F I N A L S C O R E BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 1 - CARLISLE UNITED 0
Match Notes
Home advantage helps, but I don't feel incredibly confident about this one.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 02/12 - 5:17 PM
If it's any comfort, neither do i!
Dave (Carlisle United) 02/17 - 10:54 AM
That was close! 😬
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 02/17 - 7:11 PM
Closer than I expected - well done!
Dave (Carlisle United) 02/18 - 1:01 AM