(H)
Mossley AFC
Mike Jaffe
Chippenham Town FC
Mike Parnaby
League Round 11
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
MOSSLEY AFC CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Carlton Fortune-West 11 0 11 Gk John Clemence 11 0 11
Sw Gordon Gregory 9 2 11 Sw Connor Robinson 7 -1 6
Df Billy Slater 10 0 10 Df Nicolas Otero 12 0 12
Df Erik Meyer 10 1 11 Df Diego Torres 10 2 12
Df Sying Yáng 11 1 12 Df Michael Schmidt 10 2 12
Mf Jason Ellis 11 2 13 Df Luke Sinclair 10 2 12
Mf Sam Bate 10 0 10 Mf Tony Long 13 0 13
Mf Giorgio Testa 9 2 11 Mf David Kirk 10 2 12
Mf Leo Lee 6 2 8 Mf Evan Jones 10 2 12
Fw Sam Lewis 12 1 13 Fw Elias Blucher 12 0 12
Fw Luca Bell 10 1 11 Fw Stewart Ruby 8 2 10
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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11 11 33 42 24 ROSTER TOTALS 11 6 48 37 22
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 3 0 6 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 3 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 7 0
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11 11 36 42 33 T O T A L S 11 6 48 44 22
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B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* MOSSLEY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Carlton Fortune-West: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.69 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 24.71 (no red card)
Sw Gordon Gregory: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.54 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.73 (no red card)
Df Billy Slater: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.3 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 5.36 (no red card)
Df Erik Meyer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.8 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 18.59 (no red card)
Df Sying Yáng: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.64 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 7.17 (no red card)
Mf Jason Ellis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.59 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.72 (no red card)
Mf Sam Bate: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.16 (no red card)
Mf Giorgio Testa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.51 (no red card)
Mf Leo Lee: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 29.74 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 18.16 (no red card)
Fw Sam Lewis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.48 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 89.67 (no red card)
Fw Luca Bell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 91.35 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.03 (no red card)
******* CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk John Clemence: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.83 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.78 (no red card)
Sw Connor Robinson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 72.28 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 67.63 (no red card)
Df Nicolas Otero: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.41 (no red card)
Df Diego Torres: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.12 (no red card)
Df Michael Schmidt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.3 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 49.02 (no red card)
Df Luke Sinclair: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.21 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 46.52 (no red card)
Mf Tony Long: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.58 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.66 (no red card)
Mf David Kirk: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.0 (no red card)
Mf Evan Jones: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.32 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.11 (no red card)
Fw Elias Blucher: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.68 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.64 (no red card)
Fw Stewart Ruby: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.12 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 33.02 (no red card)
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I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* MOSSLEY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Mossley AFC Team Hardness = 0
- Chippenham Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Carlton Fortune-West: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 99.13 (no injury)
Sw Gordon Gregory: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 82.61 (no injury)
Df Billy Slater: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.38 (no injury)
Df Erik Meyer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.03 (no injury)
Df Sying Yáng: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.92 (no injury)
Mf Jason Ellis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.4 (no injury)
Mf Sam Bate: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.71 (no injury)
Mf Giorgio Testa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 50.55 (no injury)
Mf Leo Lee: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 20.64 (no injury)
Fw Sam Lewis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 34.34 (no injury)
Fw Luca Bell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 61.18 (no injury)
******* CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Chippenham Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- Mossley AFC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk John Clemence: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 70.46 (no injury)
Sw Connor Robinson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.01 (no injury)
Df Nicolas Otero: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 65.32 (no injury)
Df Diego Torres: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 40.3 (no injury)
Df Michael Schmidt: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 88.71 (no injury)
Df Luke Sinclair: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.67 (no injury)
Mf Tony Long: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 57.06 (no injury)
Mf David Kirk: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 77.66 (no injury)
Mf Evan Jones: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 46.65 (no injury)
Fw Elias Blucher: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.67 (no injury)
Fw Stewart Ruby: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 43.84 (no injury)
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Sam Lewis SL 12
- Defending Gk: John Clemence SL 11
intRndPk = 6
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 6 (no penalty kick)
******* MOSSLEY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Tony Long SL 13
- Defending Gk: Carlton Fortune-West SL 11
intRndPk = 87
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 87 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* MOSSLEY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Mossley AFC 11 11 36 42 33
Chippenham Town FC 11 6 48 44 22
Mossley AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (33 - 48)
Mossley AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((42 - 44) / 2; rounded up)
Mossley AFC Df Attacks = 5 ((36 - 22) / 3); result rounded up
Mossley AFC Total Attacks = 5
1: Attack for Df Erik Meyer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 42% | Random number = 46 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 56.96 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Df Erik Meyer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 42% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Df Erik Meyer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 42% | Random number = 55 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 10.45 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Df Sying Yáng
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 42% | Random number = 44 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 64 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 74.24 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
5: Attack for Df Sying Yáng
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 42% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack)
******* CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Chippenham Town FC 11 6 48 44 22
Mossley AFC 11 11 36 42 33
Chippenham Town FC is Playing For A Draw!
Chippenham Town FC Fw Attacks = 0 (22 - 36)
Chippenham Town FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((44 - 42) / 2) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Chippenham Town FC Df Attacks = 3 ((48 - 33) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Chippenham Town FC Total Attacks = 4
1: Attack for Df Luke Sinclair
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Df Michael Schmidt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Df Michael Schmidt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 65.62 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
4: Attack for Mf David Kirk
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target)
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F I N A L S C O R E
MOSSLEY AFC 1 - CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC 1
Match Notes
Mossley versus Chippenham. Division 3 football, preparing to occur. I have calculated every possible outcome and found them all equally inevitable.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 06/17 - 7:30 PM
Shoulda won this one
Mike (Mossley AFC) 06/21 - 1:21 PM