(H)
Forest Green Rovers FC
Mark Creasey
Marine FC
Derek Purvis
League Round 12
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC MARINE FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Rafael Blanco 4 2 6 Gk Riley Lennon 5 2 7
Df Kyle Harris 7 2 9 Sw Joachim Solberg 5 2 7
Df Ruud Voorhees 5 1 6 Df Craig Lynch 8 1 9
Df Harley Bird 4 2 6 Df Damien Rodriguez 7 2 9
Df William Laroche 4 2 6 Df Afonso Gomes 7 2 9
Mf Luke Terry 9 2 11 Mf Miksa Kelemen 7 2 9
Mf Jack Milligan 9 2 11 Mf Jake Allen 5 2 7
Mf Marcos Mendez 4 2 6 Mf Freddie McDermott 3 2 5
Fw Peter East 7 0 7 Fw Agustín Rubio 7 2 9
Fw Léo Lavaud 2 2 4 Fw Francesco Sala 6 2 8
Fw Axel Le bihan 2 2 4 Fw Pablo Quiroga 5 2 7
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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6 0 27 28 15 ROSTER TOTALS 7 7 27 21 24
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 2 2 2
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
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6 0 27 28 24 T O T A L S 7 7 29 23 26
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B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Rafael Blanco: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.4 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 47.88 (no red card)
Df Kyle Harris: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.54 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.06 (no red card)
Df Ruud Voorhees: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.83 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 13.46 (no red card)
Df Harley Bird: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.37 (no red card)
Df William Laroche: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.65 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.28 (no red card)
Mf Luke Terry: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.32 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.09 (no second yellow)
Mf Jack Milligan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.77 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.8 (no red card)
Mf Marcos Mendez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.88 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 75.16 (no red card)
Fw Peter East: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.48 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.16 (no red card)
Fw Léo Lavaud: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.36 (no red card)
Fw Axel Le bihan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.23 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 64.84 (no red card)
******* MARINE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 6
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Riley Lennon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.93 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.54 (no red card)
Sw Joachim Solberg: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 73.34 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 61.46 (no red card)
Df Craig Lynch: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 69.26 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 32.29 (no red card)
Df Damien Rodriguez: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 74.66 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 71.46 (no red card)
Df Afonso Gomes: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 43.8 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 16.97 (no red card)
Mf Miksa Kelemen: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 57.72 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 8.8 (no red card)
Mf Jake Allen: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 66.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 91.3 (no red card)
Mf Freddie McDermott: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 64.42 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 15.28 (no red card)
Fw Agustín Rubio: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 48.04 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 52.56 (no red card)
Fw Francesco Sala: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 36.39 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 61.56 (no red card)
Fw Pablo Quiroga: Chance of booking = 13.5% | Random number = 0.03 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 2.25% | Random number = 25.97 (no second yellow)
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I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Forest Green Rovers FC Team Hardness = 0
- Marine FC Team Hardness = 6
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 7.0%
- Gk chance of injury = 3.5%
Gk Rafael Blanco: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 46.69 (no injury)
Df Kyle Harris: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 29.76 (no injury)
Df Ruud Voorhees: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 61.97 (no injury)
Df Harley Bird: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 31.44 (no injury)
Df William Laroche: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 55.56 (no injury)
Mf Luke Terry: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 31.17 (no injury)
Mf Jack Milligan: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 97.65 (no injury)
Mf Marcos Mendez: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 37.01 (no injury)
Fw Peter East: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 65.27 (no injury)
Fw Léo Lavaud: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 94.99 (no injury)
Fw Axel Le bihan: Chance of injury = 7.0% | Random number = 12.9 (no injury)
******* MARINE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Marine FC Team Hardness = 6
- Forest Green Rovers FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.0%
- Gk chance of injury = 2.0%
Gk Riley Lennon: Chance of injury = 2.0% | Random number = 35.06 (no injury)
Sw Joachim Solberg: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 60.7 (no injury)
Df Craig Lynch: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 28.44 (no injury)
Df Damien Rodriguez: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 84.08 (no injury)
Df Afonso Gomes: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 69.59 (no injury)
Mf Miksa Kelemen: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 47.67 (no injury)
Mf Jake Allen: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 88.03 (no injury)
Mf Freddie McDermott: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 5.97 (no injury)
Fw Agustín Rubio: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 71.06 (no injury)
Fw Francesco Sala: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 77.93 (no injury)
Fw Pablo Quiroga: Chance of injury = 4.0% | Random number = 83.74 (no injury)
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* MARINE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 6; (6 10% chances of yielding PKs)
- PK Taker: Luke Terry SL 9
- Defending Gk: Riley Lennon SL 5
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 21 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 85 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 73 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 44 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 72 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 18 (no penalty kick)
******* FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Craig Lynch SL 8
- Defending Gk: Rafael Blanco SL 4
intRndPk = 64
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 64 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Forest Green Rovers FC 6 0 27 28 24
Marine FC 7 7 29 23 26
Forest Green Rovers FC Fw Attacks = 0 (24 - 29)
Forest Green Rovers FC Mf Attacks = 3 ((28 - 23) / 2) ; result rounded up
Forest Green Rovers FC Df Attacks = 1 ((27 - 26) / 5); result rounded up
Forest Green Rovers FC Total Attacks = 4
1: Attack for Df Kyle Harris
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 44% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Mf Jack Milligan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 44% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 55.75% | Random number = 32.26 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Mf Luke Terry
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 44% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Mf Marcos Mendez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 44% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack)
******* MARINE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Marine FC 7 7 29 23 26
Forest Green Rovers FC 6 0 27 28 24
Marine FC Fw Attacks = 0 (26 - 27)
Marine FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((23 - 28) / 2; rounded up)
Marine FC Df Attacks = 2 ((29 - 24) / 3); result rounded up
Marine FC Total Attacks = 2
1: Attack for Df Damien Rodriguez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 91.62 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
2: Attack for Df Damien Rodriguez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Forest Green Rovers FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 53.5% | Random number = 43.96 (Shot Saved by Gk)
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F I N A L S C O R E
FOREST GREEN ROVERS FC 0 - MARINE FC 1
Match Notes
Forest Green at home in Division 3 — they'll want to make this fortress count. Marine travel with something to prove. Should be a fierce opening battle.
Olmec Head Axel (Rainworth Miners Welfare FC) 06/19 - 7:30 PM
fierce opening battle? awful for sure
Mark (Forest Green Rovers FC) 06/21 - 8:50 PM