Will John Blazel avoid relegation?
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Thursday, June 12th, 2025 - 07:52:50 PM (gmt)
 
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AFC Wimbledon
Dave Dohm
 
Swindon Supermarine FC
John Blazel
 
 
League Round 2
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

AFC WIMBLEDON                              SWINDON SUPERMARINE FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Matty Moore            15    1   16     Gk Ryan Caron             13    1   14
Sw Aarron Lowe            14    1   15     Sw Dave Nguyen             6    1    7
Df Louis Butler           12    0   12     Df Mason Shaw             13    0   13
Df Oscar Evans            10    0   10     Df Thomas McIntyre        10    1   11
Mf Manuel Iglesias        10    0   10     Df Daniel Baldwin          6    2    8
Mf Nigel Howells           5    2    7     Mf Ryan White             13    0   13
Fw Marty Allen            13    1   14     Mf Lewis Coppell          13    0   13
Fw Carrington Bates       10    2   12     Mf Rodrigo Fernández       2    2    4
Fw Harry Pastor           10    1   11     Fw Kai Williams            9    1   10
Fw John MacDonald          2    2    4     Fw Joe Baker               6    2    8
Fw Peter Harding           2    2    4     Fw Sean Moore              6    0    6

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16 15 22 17 45        ROSTER TOTALS      14  7 32 30 24    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  1  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  1  8       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 15 22 18 53         T O T A L S       15  8 39 30 24    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Matty Moore: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 48.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 24.48 (no red card)

Sw Aarron Lowe: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 88.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 33.46 (no red card)

Df Louis Butler: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 89.25 (no red card)

Df Oscar Evans: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 64.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 91.97 (no red card)

Mf Manuel Iglesias: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 5.2 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 71.92 (no second yellow)

Mf Nigel Howells: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 44.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 21.22 (no red card)

Fw Marty Allen: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 97.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 90.49 (no red card)

Fw Carrington Bates: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 18.49 (no red card)

Fw Harry Pastor: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 5.06 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 72.98 (no second yellow)

Fw John MacDonald: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 10.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 96.72 (no red card)

Fw Peter Harding: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.77 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 61.69 (no red card)

*******  SWINDON SUPERMARINE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Ryan Caron: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 27.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 59.77 (no red card)

Sw Dave Nguyen: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 1.54 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 60.04 (no second yellow)

Df Mason Shaw: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 81.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 34.38 (no red card)

Df Thomas McIntyre: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 8.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 54.56 (no red card)

Df Daniel Baldwin: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 73.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 6.92 (no red card)

Mf Ryan White: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 86.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 89.26 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Coppell: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 93.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 77.86 (no red card)

Mf Rodrigo Fernández: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 37.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 10.99 (no red card)

Fw Kai Williams: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 30.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 42.68 (no red card)

Fw Joe Baker: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 94.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 15.94 (no red card)

Fw Sean Moore: Chance of booking = 7.5% | Random number = 53.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.25% | Random number = 64.48 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - Swindon Supermarine FC Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Matty Moore: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 99.36 (no injury) 
Sw Aarron Lowe: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 56.48 (no injury) 
Df Louis Butler: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 64.8 (no injury) 
Df Oscar Evans: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 94.27 (no injury) 
Mf Manuel Iglesias: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 45.26 (no injury) 
Mf Nigel Howells: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 53.01 (no injury) 
Fw Marty Allen: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 57.3 (no injury) 
Fw Carrington Bates: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 46.24 (no injury) 
Fw Harry Pastor: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 95.33 (no injury) 
Fw John MacDonald: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 50.13 (no injury) 
Fw Peter Harding: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 87.6 (no injury) 

*******  SWINDON SUPERMARINE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Swindon Supermarine FC Team Hardness = 2
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.87%
Gk Ryan Caron: Chance of injury = 1.87% | Random number = 71.96 (no injury) 
Sw Dave Nguyen: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 58.79 (no injury) 
Df Mason Shaw: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 26.85 (no injury) 
Df Thomas McIntyre: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 18.66 (no injury) 
Df Daniel Baldwin: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 93.81 (no injury) 
Mf Ryan White: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 54.25 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Coppell: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 63.78 (no injury) 
Mf Rodrigo Fernández: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 8.95 (no injury) 
Fw Kai Williams: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 21.06 (no injury) 
Fw Joe Baker: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 42.96 (no injury) 
Fw Sean Moore: Chance of injury = 3.75% | Random number = 24.93 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SWINDON SUPERMARINE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Marty Allen SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Ryan Caron SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 72 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 5 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 76% | Random number = 11 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Mason Shaw SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Matty Moore SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 8 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 72% | Random number = 62 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  AFC Wimbledon            17  15  22  18  53
  Swindon Supermarine FC   15   8  39  30  24

AFC Wimbledon Fw Attacks = 14 (53 - 39); result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Mf Attacks = 0 ((18 - 30) / 2;  rounded up)
AFC Wimbledon Df Attacks = 0 ((22 - 24) / 3;  rounded up)
AFC Wimbledon Total Attacks = 14

1: Attack for Fw Carrington Bates
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Harry Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Carrington Bates
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Marty Allen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 31.03 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Carrington Bates
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Harry Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Marty Allen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Peter Harding
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 99.1 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Marty Allen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Marty Allen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Harry Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Carrington Bates
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 2.19 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Carrington Bates
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Harry Pastor
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 46% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 75.83 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 

*******  SWINDON SUPERMARINE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Swindon Supermarine FC   15   8  39  30  24
  AFC Wimbledon            17  15  22  18  53

Swindon Supermarine FC is Playing For A Draw!
Swindon Supermarine FC Fw Attacks = 1 (24 - 22) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Swindon Supermarine FC Mf Attacks = 3 ((30 - 18) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Swindon Supermarine FC Df Attacks = 0 ((39 - 53) / 3;  rounded up)
Swindon Supermarine FC Total Attacks = 4

1: Attack for Mf Lewis Coppell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Ryan White
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Lewis Coppell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Kai Williams
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
AFC WIMBLEDON 3  -  SWINDON SUPERMARINE FC 1
 
Match Notes
Our old friend John “Billy & the High Dog” Blazel
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 05/31 - 2:28 PM
 
 
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