Welling's midfield — Sylar Kelley and Evan Burns both scratching at an 18 threshold — simply cannot hold the centre against Burton's organised press, and that gap will be ruthlessly exploited by visitors who seem, depressingly, to know exactly what they are doing. The home advantage here is a modest nine-point cushion, which is the kind of marginal comfort that makes absolutely no difference when your defensive shape collapses around Gordon Brown's ankles in the second half. Burton will take this, as most things in football are taken — efficiently, joylessly, and without anyone truly caring.

Welling's forward line is absolutely thunderous on home soil, but Burton's sweeper Rendor Veres is a wall that I think will blunt the most dangerous raids. The real battlefield is that midfield corridor — Burton's compact shape through the centre looks like it could strangle Welling's supply lines and flip momentum to the away side. Painful one to call against the home crowd, but Burton are built for away wars like this.