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AFC Wimbledon
Dave Dohm
 
Tonbridge Angels
Andy Shaw
 
 
League Round 17
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

AFC WIMBLEDON                              TONBRIDGE ANGELS

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Matty Moore            17    2   19     Gk Jermaine Parry         10    2   12
Df Aarron Lowe            15    2   17     Sw Sean Carroll            9    2   11
Df Oscar Evans            14    2   16     Df Luke Crowley           13    2   15
Df Alejandro García       13    2   15     Df Finn Fitzgerald        12    2   14
Df Ryan Barber             9    2   11     Df Earl Kelly             10    2   12
Mf Manuel Iglesias        14    2   16     Df Steve Gordon            5    2    7
Mf Isao Mori              15    2   17     Mf Kunio Yamamoto         13    2   15
Mf Baron Fisher            9    2   11     Mf Reuben Byrne            9    2   11
Mf Nigel Howells           9    2   11     Fw Michael Turner         14    2   16
Fw Harry Pastor           15    2   17     Fw Jens Kristensen        10    2   12
Fw Ben Butcher             9    1   10     Fw Liam Thwaite           10    2   12

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      19  0 59 55 27        ROSTER TOTALS      12 11 48 26 40    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          2  2  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  9  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       2  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  7  0  0    
=======================================================================
      22  0 59 64 27         T O T A L S       14 13 55 26 40    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Matty Moore: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 13.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 25.73 (no red card)

Df Aarron Lowe: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 96.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 14.16 (no red card)

Df Oscar Evans: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 4.99 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 10.56 (no second yellow)

Df Alejandro García: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 26.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 84.0 (no red card)

Df Ryan Barber: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 60.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 71.7 (no red card)

Mf Manuel Iglesias: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 86.69 (no red card)

Mf Isao Mori: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 60.68 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 36.07 (no red card)

Mf Baron Fisher: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 50.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 60.72 (no red card)

Mf Nigel Howells: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 28.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 43.77 (no red card)

Fw Harry Pastor: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 84.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 35.92 (no red card)

Fw Ben Butcher: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 9.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 58.09 (no red card)

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 4
   - Gk   Hardness = 2

Gk Jermaine Parry: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 28.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.25% | Random number = 43.64 (no red card)

Sw Sean Carroll: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 71.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 1.55 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Sean Carroll new match skill level =  5
      Sean Carroll new match total level =  7

Df Luke Crowley: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 47.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 32.96 (no red card)

Df Finn Fitzgerald: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 78.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 8.73 (no red card)

Df Earl Kelly: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 95.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 41.11 (no red card)

Df Steve Gordon: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 60.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 8.07 (no red card)

Mf Kunio Yamamoto: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 73.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 36.22 (no red card)

Mf Reuben Byrne: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 79.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 3.26 (no red card)

Fw Michael Turner: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 90.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 15.69 (no red card)

Fw Jens Kristensen: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 26.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 6.15 (no red card)

Fw Liam Thwaite: Chance of booking = 10.5% | Random number = 81.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.75% | Random number = 73.0 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - Tonbridge Angels Team Hardness = 4
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.87%
Gk Matty Moore: Chance of injury = 2.87% | Random number = 33.81 (no injury) 
Df Aarron Lowe: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 54.11 (no injury) 
Df Oscar Evans: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 38.32 (no injury) 
Df Alejandro García: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 35.54 (no injury) 
Df Ryan Barber: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 74.88 (no injury) 
Mf Manuel Iglesias: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 92.21 (no injury) 
Mf Isao Mori: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 70.09 (no injury) 
Mf Baron Fisher: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 82.87 (no injury) 
Mf Nigel Howells: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 29.16 (no injury) 
Fw Harry Pastor: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 54.89 (no injury) 
Fw Ben Butcher: Chance of injury = 5.75% | Random number = 99.64 (no injury) 

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Tonbridge Angels Team Hardness = 4
   - AFC Wimbledon Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Jermaine Parry: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 23.08 (no injury) 
Sw Sean Carroll: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 88.95 (no injury) 
Df Luke Crowley: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 87.68 (no injury) 
Df Finn Fitzgerald: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 43.7 (no injury) 
Df Earl Kelly: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 35.79 (no injury) 
Df Steve Gordon: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 67.24 (no injury) 
Mf Kunio Yamamoto: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 15.04 (no injury) 
Mf Reuben Byrne: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 74.89 (no injury) 
Fw Michael Turner: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 15.26 (no injury) 
Fw Jens Kristensen: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 25.66 (no injury) 
Fw Liam Thwaite: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 42.4 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 4; (4 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Aarron Lowe SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Jermaine Parry SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 80 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 95 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 98 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 33 (no penalty kick)

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Michael Turner SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Matty Moore SL 17

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 85 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  AFC WIMBLEDON ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  AFC Wimbledon            22   0  59  64  27
  Tonbridge Angels         14   9  55  26  40

AFC Wimbledon Fw Attacks = 0 (27 - 55)
AFC Wimbledon Mf Attacks = 19 ((64 - 26) / 2) ; result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Df Attacks = 4 ((59 - 40) / 5); result rounded up
AFC Wimbledon Total Attacks = 23

1: Attack for Df Alejandro García
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 79.07 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Aarron Lowe
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 37 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 96.94 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Df Oscar Evans
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Oscar Evans
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Isao Mori
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Baron Fisher
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 72.99 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
10: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Mf Nigel Howells
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 41.18 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Mf Baron Fisher
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Mf Baron Fisher
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Mf Isao Mori
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Mf Isao Mori
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 61.46 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
18: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 87.91 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
19: Attack for Mf Baron Fisher
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 61.2 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
20: Attack for Mf Isao Mori
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 36.71 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
21: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 44 (Shot Off Target) 
22: Attack for Mf Isao Mori
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 76.23 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
23: Attack for Mf Manuel Iglesias
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  TONBRIDGE ANGELS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Tonbridge Angels         14   9  55  26  40
  AFC Wimbledon            22   0  59  64  27

AFC Wimbledon is using Offside Trap!
Tonbridge Angels is Playing For A Draw!
Tonbridge Angels Fw Attacks = 0 (40 - 59)
Tonbridge Angels Mf Attacks = 0 ((26 - 64) / 2;  rounded up)
Tonbridge Angels Df Attacks = 5 ((55 - 27) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Tonbridge Angels Total Attacks = 5

1: Attack for Df Luke Crowley
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 89.5% | Random number = 86.62 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Finn Fitzgerald
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Luke Crowley
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 85 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 89.5% | Random number = 60.77 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Luke Crowley
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 89.5% | Random number = 34.72 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Df Luke Crowley
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for AFC Wimbledon
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 89.5% | Random number = 96.44 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
AFC WIMBLEDON 5  -  TONBRIDGE ANGELS 1
 
Match Notes
Will Dave continue to taunt Div 1 by trying to draw 6 of the last 7 matches to rub in how big a lead he built early this season? Will Andy stand for that with a top 3 spot within reach?
Kevin (FC United of Manchester) 07/22 - 11:18 PM
Limping to the stretch for sure. These 2 games sessions are hampering.
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 07/23 - 1:01 PM
The champions elect away. A tough ask but you never know.
Andy (Tonbridge Angels) 07/26 - 11:33 AM
The champs rumble on
Carl (Hyde FC) 07/28 - 8:08 AM
That’s exactly what we expected. Congratulations Dave on the title.
Andy (Tonbridge Angels) 07/30 - 6:54 PM
 
 
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