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Harrogate Railway AFC
Allan Sellers
 
Chasetown FC
Paul Cockayne
 
 
League Round 18
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC                      CHASETOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Florian De Vos         15    2   17     Gk Daniel Bell             9    2   11
Sw Fortunato  Torres      11    1   12     Sw Diego Lombardo         15    2   17
Df Gabriel Williams       15    2   17     Df Jake Whyte             14    0   14
Df Vegar Aas               9    2   11     Df Arthur East             9    2   11
Df Freddy Arboleda         9    2   11     Df Arno Christiaens        8    2   10
Mf Benjamin Healy         14    1   15     Df Lewis Allan             5    2    7
Mf Andy Watson            14    0   14     Mf Alf Jenssen            15    2   17
Fw Ian Hunter             15    1   16     Mf Finley Harris          13    0   13
Fw Conor Thompson         15    2   17     Mf Gerry Ruddle           14    0   14
Fw Luke Cockburn          15    2   17     Df Albert Ramos           11    2   13
Fw Justin Neumann          9    1   10     Fw Charlie Sullivan       12    0   12

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 12 39 29 60        ROSTER TOTALS      11 17 55 44 12    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  3  0  2  1  3    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 12 39 29 69         T O T A L S       14 17 57 45 15    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 22.96 (no red card)

Sw Fortunato  Torres: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.02 (no red card)

Df Gabriel Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.53 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 95.52 (no red card)

Df Vegar Aas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.76 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 22.64 (no second yellow)

Df Freddy Arboleda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 17.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.82 (no red card)

Mf Benjamin Healy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.68 (no red card)

Mf Andy Watson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.96 (no red card)

Fw Ian Hunter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 4.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 38.58 (no red card)

Fw Conor Thompson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.23 (no red card)

Fw Luke Cockburn: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.81 (no red card)

Fw Justin Neumann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.05 (no red card)

*******  CHASETOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Daniel Bell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.74 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 26.3 (no red card)

Sw Diego Lombardo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.17 (no red card)

Df Jake Whyte: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.7 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.16 (no red card)

Df Arthur East: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.37 (no red card)

Df Arno Christiaens: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.89 (no red card)

Df Lewis Allan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 74.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.3 (no red card)

Mf Alf Jenssen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 72.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.02 (no red card)

Mf Finley Harris: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 57.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.61 (no red card)

Mf Gerry Ruddle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 62.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.24 (no red card)

Df Albert Ramos: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.15 (no red card)

Fw Charlie Sullivan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 30.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 98.03 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Chasetown FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 29.95 (no injury) 
Sw Fortunato  Torres: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.24 (no injury) 
Df Gabriel Williams: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.4 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Gabriel Williams is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Gabriel Williams new match skill level =  8
      Gabriel Williams new match total level =  10
Df Vegar Aas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 49.64 (no injury) 
Df Freddy Arboleda: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 31.9 (no injury) 
Mf Benjamin Healy: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.94 (no injury) 
Mf Andy Watson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 34.1 (no injury) 
Fw Ian Hunter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 1.9 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 6
      Ian Hunter is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 5 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Ian Hunter new match skill level =  8
      Ian Hunter new match total level =  9
Fw Conor Thompson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 93.51 (no injury) 
Fw Luke Cockburn: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.98 (no injury) 
Fw Justin Neumann: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 5.22 (no injury) 

*******  CHASETOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Chasetown FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Daniel Bell: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 44.84 (no injury) 
Sw Diego Lombardo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.85 (no injury) 
Df Jake Whyte: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.3 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Jake Whyte is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Arthur East: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.45 (no injury) 
Df Arno Christiaens: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 60.41 (no injury) 
Df Lewis Allan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.77 (no injury) 
Mf Alf Jenssen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 80.45 (no injury) 
Mf Finley Harris: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 79.56 (no injury) 
Mf Gerry Ruddle: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.51 (no injury) 
Df Albert Ramos: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 90.39 (no injury) 
Fw Charlie Sullivan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 54.31 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  CHASETOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Conor Thompson SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Daniel Bell SL 9

     intRndPk = 62
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 62 (no penalty kick)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Alf Jenssen SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Florian De Vos SL 15

     intRndPk = 2
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 2 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 80% | Random number = 94 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Harrogate Railway AFC    17  12  32  29  62
  Chasetown FC             14  17  57  45  15

Harrogate Railway AFC Fw Attacks = 5 (62 - 57); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((29 - 45) / 2;  rounded up)
Harrogate Railway AFC Df Attacks = 6 ((32 - 15) / 3); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Total Attacks = 11

1: Attack for Df Vegar Aas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Vegar Aas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Df Freddy Arboleda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 63 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Luke Cockburn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 61.15 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Luke Cockburn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 77 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 40.66 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 57.74 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Luke Cockburn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 26.7 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  CHASETOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Chasetown FC             14  17  57  45  15
  Harrogate Railway AFC    17  12  32  29  62

Chasetown FC Fw Attacks = 0 (15 - 32)
Chasetown FC Mf Attacks = 8 ((45 - 29) / 2) ; result rounded up
Chasetown FC Df Attacks = 0 ((57 - 62) / 3;  rounded up)
Chasetown FC Total Attacks = 8

1: Attack for Mf Gerry Ruddle
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Mf Gerry Ruddle
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Finley Harris
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 9.38 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Mf Alf Jenssen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Finley Harris
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Gerry Ruddle
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 86.31 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Mf Alf Jenssen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 40 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Mf Gerry Ruddle
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC 0  -  CHASETOWN FC 2
 
Match Notes
Promotion now very unlikely but maybe if we can grab six points....
Paul (Chasetown FC) 07/25 - 6:04 PM
Chasetown just miss out on promotion, but would have been relegated with a loss. Yow
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 07/26 - 7:50 PM
Hadn't realised I was close to relegation, John!
Paul (Chasetown FC) 07/31 - 3:54 PM
 
 
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