Will John Blazel avoid relegation?
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Thursday, June 12th, 2025 - 08:12:05 PM (gmt)
 
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Chippenham Town FC
Mike Parnaby
 
Harrogate Railway AFC
Allan Sellers
 
 
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S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC                         HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Owen Rooney            11    0   11     Gk Florian De Vos         14    1   15
Sw Simon Howells           4    1    5     Sw Fortunato  Torres      11    2   13
Df Nathan Doyle           13    0   13     Df Trevor Harewood        11    0   11
Df Jan Beerman             7    0    7     Df Henry Martin           10    0   10
Df Bryan Price             5    2    7     Df Vegar Aas               6    2    8
Df Michael Schmidt         5    2    7     Mf Benjamin Healy         10    0   10
Mf Evan Jones              9    0    9     Mf Michael Möller         10    1   11
Mf Luis Gonzalez           7    0    7     Fw Conor Thompson         14    0   14
Mf David Kirk              5    2    7     Fw Luke Cockburn          15    1   16
Fw Calum Kelly             7    0    7     Fw Ian Hunter             10    0   10
Fw Hans Frings             4    2    6     Fw Cooper Smith           10    1   11

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      11  5 34 23 13        ROSTER TOTALS      15 13 29 21 51    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          3  3  4  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  7  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      11  5 34 30 13         T O T A L S       18 16 33 21 51    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Owen Rooney: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 12.34 (no red card)

Sw Simon Howells: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 80.62 (no red card)

Df Nathan Doyle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 71.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 88.3 (no red card)

Df Jan Beerman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.05 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.07 (no red card)

Df Bryan Price: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 10.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 51.22 (no red card)

Df Michael Schmidt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.71 (no red card)

Mf Evan Jones: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 84.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 30.55 (no red card)

Mf Luis Gonzalez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.21 (no red card)

Mf David Kirk: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 69.06 (no red card)

Fw Calum Kelly: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.1 (no red card)

Fw Hans Frings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.77 (no red card)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 10
   - Gk   Hardness = 3

Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 38.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 99.55 (no red card)

Sw Fortunato  Torres: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 4.47 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 58.65 (no second yellow)

Df Trevor Harewood: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 19.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 84.69 (no red card)

Df Henry Martin: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 79.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 84.44 (no red card)

Df Vegar Aas: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 14.88 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 77.14 (no second yellow)

Mf Benjamin Healy: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 69.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 13.6 (no red card)

Mf Michael Möller: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 15.48 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 24.79 (no second yellow)

Fw Conor Thompson: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 66.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 9.7 (no red card)

Fw Luke Cockburn: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 7.49 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 91.16 (no second yellow)

Fw Ian Hunter: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 62.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 57.62 (no red card)

Fw Cooper Smith: Chance of booking = 19.5% | Random number = 92.03 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 3.25% | Random number = 33.11 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Chippenham Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 10
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 10.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 5.0%
Gk Owen Rooney: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 69.52 (no injury) 
Sw Simon Howells: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 87.47 (no injury) 
Df Nathan Doyle: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 45.62 (no injury) 
Df Jan Beerman: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 83.37 (no injury) 
Df Bryan Price: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 82.86 (no injury) 
Df Michael Schmidt: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 97.44 (no injury) 
Mf Evan Jones: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 51.65 (no injury) 
Mf Luis Gonzalez: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 83.6 (no injury) 
Mf David Kirk: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 54.02 (no injury) 
Fw Calum Kelly: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 1.23 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Calum Kelly is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Fw Hans Frings: Chance of injury = 10.0% | Random number = 53.83 (no injury) 

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 10
   - Chippenham Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.0%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.5%
Gk Florian De Vos: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 52.98 (no injury) 
Sw Fortunato  Torres: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 74.44 (no injury) 
Df Trevor Harewood: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 20.95 (no injury) 
Df Henry Martin: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 11.8 (no injury) 
Df Vegar Aas: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 93.82 (no injury) 
Mf Benjamin Healy: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 96.48 (no injury) 
Mf Michael Möller: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 46.68 (no injury) 
Fw Conor Thompson: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 4.25 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 5
      Conor Thompson is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 4 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Conor Thompson new match skill level =  7
      Conor Thompson new match total level =  7
Fw Luke Cockburn: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 28.29 (no injury) 
Fw Ian Hunter: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 3.43 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Ian Hunter is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Ian Hunter new match skill level =  5
      Ian Hunter new match total level =  5
Fw Cooper Smith: Chance of injury = 5.0% | Random number = 65.89 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 10; (10 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Nathan Doyle SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Florian De Vos SL 14

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 24 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 86 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 88 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 28 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 90 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 5 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 74% | Random number = 31 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 45 (no penalty kick)
8: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 55 (no penalty kick)
9: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 57 (no penalty kick)
10: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 67 (no penalty kick)

*******  CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Luke Cockburn SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Owen Rooney SL 11

     intRndPk = 27
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 27 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Chippenham Town FC       11   5  34  30  13
  Harrogate Railway AFC    18  16  33  21  39

Chippenham Town FC is Playing For A Draw!
Chippenham Town FC Fw Attacks = 0 (13 - 33)
Chippenham Town FC Mf Attacks = 2 ((30 - 21) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Chippenham Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((34 - 39) / 3;  rounded up)
Chippenham Town FC Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Luis Gonzalez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Evan Jones
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Harrogate Railway AFC    18  16  33  21  39
  Chippenham Town FC       11   5  34  30  13

Harrogate Railway AFC Fw Attacks = 5 (39 - 34); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 30) / 2;  rounded up)
Harrogate Railway AFC Df Attacks = 7 ((33 - 13) / 3); result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Total Attacks = 12

1: Attack for Df Trevor Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 43 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 70.09 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Vegar Aas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Trevor Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 70.95 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Df Henry Martin
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 37 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Vegar Aas
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 36.72 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Df Trevor Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 77.05 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
7: Attack for Df Trevor Harewood
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 28.16 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Conor Thompson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 53 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 42.58 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Luke Cockburn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 20.04 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Luke Cockburn
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 99.59 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
11: Attack for Fw Cooper Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 18.77 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Cooper Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CHIPPENHAM TOWN FC 1  -  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC 4
 
Match Notes
Harrogate need a better result than the Miners, or to make up four goals of difference on them. Chippenham need to win, have the Miners lose, and make up three goals of difference, which isn't that much.
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 05/25 - 10:41 PM
History and current form all points to an away win
Mike (Chippenham Town FC) 05/26 - 4:10 AM
Harrogate wanted this one more, and it showed!
Mike (Chippenham Town FC) 06/01 - 8:09 PM
Unfortunate outcome for Conor Thompson
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 06/01 - 10:01 PM
Thank you for caring Honest Dave...
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 06/01 - 11:34 PM
 
 
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