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Turkey
John Holden
 
France
Antoine Thevenon
 
 
WC MD31
 
 
 
 
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S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

TURKEY                                     FRANCE

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Uğurcan Çakır          10    2   12     Gk Brice Samba            12    2   14
Sw Merih Demiral          10    2   12     Sw Dayot Upamecano        14    1   15
Df Mert Müldür            10    1   11     Df Théo Hernandez         14    2   16
Df Ferdi Kadıoğlu         10    2   12     Df Jules Koundé           14    1   15
Df Abdülkerim Bardakçı    10    1   11     Mf Maghnes Akliouche      12    2   14
Df Ozan Kabak              8    2   10     Mf Manu Koné              12    2   14
Df Eren Elmali             8    2   10     Fw Kylian Mbappé          16    1   17
Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu       12    1   13     Fw Marcus Thuram          14    2   16
Mf Orkun Kökçü            10    2   12     Fw Ousmane Dembélé        14    0   14
Mf Kaan Ayhan             10    1   11     Fw Michael Olise          12    1   13
Fw Kenan Yıldız           14    2   16     Fw Bradley Barcola        12    1   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12 12 54 36 16        ROSTER TOTALS      14 15 31 28 73    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  1  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       2  0  6  0  1  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  3  1  5  0  0    
       0  0  7  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        DEFENSE COACH       0  0  2  0  0    
=======================================================================
      15 12 67 36 17         T O T A L S       17 17 38 28 73    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  TURKEY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Uğurcan Çakır: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 43.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 29.88 (no red card)

Sw Merih Demiral: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 6.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.86 (no red card)

Df Mert Müldür: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 52.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 58.83 (no red card)

Df Ferdi Kadıoğlu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 89.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 76.06 (no red card)

Df Abdülkerim Bardakçı: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 4.59 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 28.91 (no second yellow)

Df Ozan Kabak: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 76.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 94.72 (no red card)

Df Eren Elmali: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 0.55 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 45.16 (no second yellow)

Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 86.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 72.8 (no red card)

Mf Orkun Kökçü: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 24.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 18.75 (no red card)

Mf Kaan Ayhan: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 75.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 10.19 (no red card)

Fw Kenan Yıldız: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 89.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 91.34 (no red card)

*******  FRANCE YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Brice Samba: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 57.94 (no red card)

Sw Dayot Upamecano: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 58.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 8.85 (no red card)

Df Théo Hernandez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 9.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 29.56 (no red card)

Df Jules Koundé: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 56.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 31.05 (no red card)

Mf Maghnes Akliouche: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 47.22 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 86.91 (no red card)

Mf Manu Koné: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 52.64 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 93.72 (no red card)

Fw Kylian Mbappé: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 81.19 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 37.21 (no red card)

Fw Marcus Thuram: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 35.8 (no red card)

Fw Ousmane Dembélé: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 74.45 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 49.96 (no red card)

Fw Michael Olise: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 89.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 17.41 (no red card)

Fw Bradley Barcola: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 79.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 54.85 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  TURKEY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Turkey Team Hardness = 1
   - France Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Uğurcan Çakır: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 64.9 (no injury) 
Sw Merih Demiral: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 13.16 (no injury) 
Df Mert Müldür: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 9.69 (no injury) 
Df Ferdi Kadıoğlu: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 91.09 (no injury) 
Df Abdülkerim Bardakçı: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 24.41 (no injury) 
Df Ozan Kabak: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 32.21 (no injury) 
Df Eren Elmali: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 78.52 (no injury) 
Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 40.87 (no injury) 
Mf Orkun Kökçü: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 83.0 (no injury) 
Mf Kaan Ayhan: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 88.81 (no injury) 
Fw Kenan Yıldız: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 63.73 (no injury) 

*******  FRANCE CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - France Team Hardness = 1
   - Turkey Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Brice Samba: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 52.6 (no injury) 
Sw Dayot Upamecano: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 79.62 (no injury) 
Df Théo Hernandez: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 4.81 (no injury) 
Df Jules Koundé: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 41.98 (no injury) 
Mf Maghnes Akliouche: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 19.02 (no injury) 
Mf Manu Koné: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 42.37 (no injury) 
Fw Kylian Mbappé: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 83.54 (no injury) 
Fw Marcus Thuram: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 55.21 (no injury) 
Fw Ousmane Dembélé: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 51.79 (no injury) 
Fw Michael Olise: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 97.44 (no injury) 
Fw Bradley Barcola: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 20.17 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  FRANCE CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Kenan Yıldız SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Brice Samba SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 38 (no penalty kick)

*******  TURKEY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Kylian Mbappé SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Uğurcan Çakır SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 17 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  TURKEY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Turkey                   15  12  67  36  17
  France                   17  17  38  28  73

Turkey is Playing For A Draw!
Turkey Fw Attacks = 0 (17 - 38)
Turkey Mf Attacks = 2 ((36 - 28) / 2)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Turkey Df Attacks = 0 ((67 - 73) / 3;  rounded up)
Turkey Total Attacks = 2

1: Attack for Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Kaan Ayhan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  FRANCE ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  France                   17  17  38  28  73
  Turkey                   15  12  67  36  17

France Fw Attacks = 6 (73 - 67); result rounded up
France Mf Attacks = 0 ((28 - 36) / 2;  rounded up)
France Df Attacks = 7 ((38 - 17) / 3); result rounded up
France Total Attacks = 13

1: Attack for Df Théo Hernandez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 46.28 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Théo Hernandez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 12.05 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Théo Hernandez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Jules Koundé
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target) 
5: Attack for Df Jules Koundé
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Df Théo Hernandez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Df Jules Koundé
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Bradley Barcola
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 25.26 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Michael Olise
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 55.83 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Michael Olise
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Marcus Thuram
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Marcus Thuram
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 39 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 89.72 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Bradley Barcola
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
TURKEY 0  -  FRANCE 1
 
Match Notes
This French team is insanely good, but John doesn't know how to lose. I think his streak ends here.
Brian (Germany) 07/11 - 12:26 AM  
Great run by the Turks, but we'll try to make sure it ends here...
Antoine (France) 07/11 - 4:41 AM  
I find it hard to believe the Turkish attack is better than ours... Mbappé is worth ten Turkish players! ;-)
Antoine (France) 07/11 - 4:42 AM  
I'll be surprised if we win this
John (Turkey) 07/11 - 5:13 PM  
Didn’t you say that in the last round Brian?
Roger (Netherlands) 07/11 - 5:26 PM  
Will John Holden advance to the Final for a chance to face John Holden?
Jason (Uruguay) 07/11 - 5:28 PM  
Jurgen is making the kolaches a lot. Does anyone know how often JK's prediction is right when he makes kolaches?
Allan (Mexico) 07/12 - 12:45 AM  
Socrates and Jurgen are good. Great resistance from our Turkish friends. I hesitated over using an anti-"ost" game plan. Looks like I made the right call. Happy Bastille Day! 🇫🇷
Antoine (France) 07/14 - 5:16 PM  
Close game
Simon (Qatar) 07/14 - 5:41 PM  
Two bookings and one goal. Sounds bout right for a semifinal. Congrats Antoine.
Brian (Germany) 07/14 - 6:02 PM  
John, great tactics. You were close to pk's.
Brian (Germany) 07/14 - 6:02 PM  
Congrats Antoine. I didn't have enough skill to comfortably play OST.
John (Croatia) 07/14 - 8:26 PM  
Congratulations Antoine! Great run to get Turkiye to a semi Mr. H!
Allan (Mexico) 07/14 - 10:08 PM  
 
 
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