(N)
Mexico
Roy Rolsten
Ireland
Allan Sellers
World Cup 48 Quarterfinals
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
MEXICO IRELAND
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk MEX GK 2 12 1 13 Gk Craig Carsley 15 1 16
Sw Saul Aquino 13 1 14 Sw Marek Murray 9 0 9
Df Martin Rodríguez 13 0 13 Df Edwin O'Doherty 13 1 14
Df Gustavo García 13 1 14 Df Shay Given 11 1 12
Df Antonio Moreno 8 2 10 Df Marek Murphy 8 1 9
Mf Santiago Villa 13 0 13 Df Brian Finnan 8 2 10
Mf Raúl Lozano 11 2 13 Df Gareth Smith 11 1 12
Fw Julio Morales 15 1 16 Mf Edwin O'Kelly 13 1 14
Fw Ruben Gutiérrez 15 1 16 Mf Gearoid O'Rourke 11 1 12
Fw Eduardo Luna 14 1 15 Fw IRE FW 1 9 0 9
Fw Héctor Vasquez 13 2 15 Fw IRE FW 2 9 0 9
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
13 14 37 26 62 ROSTER TOTALS 16 9 57 26 18
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 3 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 2 5 0 0
=======================================================================
13 17 37 26 62 T O T A L S 19 12 62 26 18
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* MEXICO YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk MEX GK 2: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.56 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 15.86 (no red card)
Sw Saul Aquino: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.41 (no red card)
Df Martin Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.94 (no red card)
Df Gustavo García: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 57.41 (no red card)
Df Antonio Moreno: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.4 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.07 (no red card)
Mf Santiago Villa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.89 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.1 (no red card)
Mf Raúl Lozano: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.74 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.07 (no red card)
Fw Julio Morales: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.99 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 13.32 (no red card)
Fw Ruben Gutiérrez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.27 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.46 (no red card)
Fw Eduardo Luna: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.33 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.72 (no second yellow)
Fw Héctor Vasquez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.27 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.04 (no red card)
******* IRELAND YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 3
- Gk Hardness = 3
Gk Craig Carsley: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 88.15 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 16.29 (no red card)
Sw Marek Murray: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 63.8 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 34.02 (no red card)
Df Edwin O'Doherty: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 59.11 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 5.21 (no red card)
Df Shay Given: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 38.57 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 25.27 (no red card)
Df Marek Murphy: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 88.71 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 61.3 (no red card)
Df Brian Finnan: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 42.29 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 98.48 (no red card)
Df Gareth Smith: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 57.65 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 80.81 (no red card)
Mf Edwin O'Kelly: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 14.94 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 14.57 (no red card)
Mf Gearoid O'Rourke: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 43.4 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 92.81 (no red card)
Fw IRE FW 1: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 83.98 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 88.04 (no red card)
Fw IRE FW 2: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 43.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.5% | Random number = 68.94 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* MEXICO CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Mexico Team Hardness = 0
- Ireland Team Hardness = 3
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 2.37%
Gk MEX GK 2: Chance of injury = 2.37% | Random number = 26.47 (no injury)
Sw Saul Aquino: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 61.32 (no injury)
Df Martin Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 93.54 (no injury)
Df Gustavo García: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 11.87 (no injury)
Df Antonio Moreno: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 73.93 (no injury)
Mf Santiago Villa: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 4.65 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 2
Santiago Villa loses 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Santiago Villa new match skill level = 7
Santiago Villa new match total level = 7
Mf Raúl Lozano: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 13.68 (no injury)
Fw Julio Morales: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 42.43 (no injury)
Fw Ruben Gutiérrez: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 32.71 (no injury)
Fw Eduardo Luna: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 0.96 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 3
Eduardo Luna loses 3 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Eduardo Luna new match skill level = 7
Eduardo Luna new match total level = 8
Fw Héctor Vasquez: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 95.81 (no injury)
******* IRELAND CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Ireland Team Hardness = 3
- Mexico Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Craig Carsley: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 47.16 (no injury)
Sw Marek Murray: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 41.0 (no injury)
Df Edwin O'Doherty: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 39.29 (no injury)
Df Shay Given: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 81.68 (no injury)
Df Marek Murphy: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 60.5 (no injury)
Df Brian Finnan: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 82.87 (no injury)
Df Gareth Smith: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 15.96 (no injury)
Mf Edwin O'Kelly: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 53.86 (no injury)
Mf Gearoid O'Rourke: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 65.71 (no injury)
Fw IRE FW 1: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 66.53 (no injury)
Fw IRE FW 2: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 66.33 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* IRELAND CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 3; (3 10% chances of yielding PKs)
- PK Taker: Julio Morales SL 15
- Defending Gk: Craig Carsley SL 15
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 31 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 64 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 10 (PENALTY KICK!)
Chance of scoring = 80% | Random number = 74 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
******* MEXICO CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Edwin O'Doherty SL 13
- Defending Gk: MEX GK 2 SL 12
intRndPk = 42
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 42 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* MEXICO ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Mexico 13 17 37 20 55
Ireland 19 12 62 26 18
Mexico Fw Attacks = 0 (55 - 62)
Mexico Mf Attacks = 0 ((20 - 26) / 2; rounded up)
Mexico Df Attacks = 7 ((37 - 18) / 3); result rounded up
Mexico Total Attacks = 7
1: Attack for Df Martin Rodríguez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 52.45 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Df Martin Rodríguez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 37.82 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Df Martin Rodríguez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Df Gustavo García
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Df Martin Rodríguez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 0.63 (Shot Saved by Gk)
6: Attack for Df Antonio Moreno
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 21.24 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Df Gustavo García
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 26 (Sw stopped attack)
******* IRELAND ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Ireland 19 12 62 26 18
Mexico 13 17 37 20 55
Ireland is Playing For A Draw!
Ireland Fw Attacks = 0 (18 - 37)
Ireland Mf Attacks = 2 ((26 - 20) / 2) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Ireland Df Attacks = 2 ((62 - 55) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Ireland Total Attacks = 4
1: Attack for Df Edwin O'Doherty
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Df Gareth Smith
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 32.54 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Mf Gearoid O'Rourke
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Mf Edwin O'Kelly
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
MEXICO 1 - IRELAND 0
Match Notes
5 goal underdogs against the unstoppable El-Tri...
Allan (Ireland) 09/22 - 9:40 PM
The oddsmakers now have us at 7-goal underdogs. Can we keep it close against this dominating Mexican side? Did you know Mexico City is built on top of the Aztec island capital Tenochtitlan? I did...
Allan (Ireland) 09/23 - 11:14 PM
Allan has done a grand job with such an awful squad. gets my coaches poll vote here!
Vick (Ukraine) 09/24 - 6:38 AM
and a double vote if he beats Mexico!
Vick (Ukraine) 09/24 - 6:38 AM
I don't think Roy knows what's in store here. I suspect the Irish are going to press for 90 minutes.
Brian (Poland) 09/24 - 12:35 PM
It's a bit of an understatement to say Al knows what he's doing. I suspect another packed midfield and relying on his superior keeper
Roy (Mexico) 09/24 - 6:29 PM
Congratulations Roy!
Allan (Ireland) 09/25 - 9:18 PM
Great game. Tough to lose on a penalty, Al, but you kept this game very close.
Brian (Poland) 09/25 - 9:40 PM
Well played Al
Roy (Mexico) 09/26 - 12:12 PM