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S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

AUSTRALIA                                  TURKEY

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Mathew Ryan            10    1   11     Gk Uğurcan Çakır          10    1   11
Sw Harry Souttar          10    1   11     Sw Merih Demiral          10    1   11
Df Alessandro Circati      8    1    9     Df Mert Müldür            10    1   11
Df Jacob Italiano          8    1    9     Df Ferdi Kadıoğlu         10    1   11
Mf Ajdin Hrustic          10    1   11     Df Çağlar Söyüncü         10    1   11
Mf Jackson Irvine         10    1   11     Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu       12    1   13
Fw Awer Mabil             12    1   13     Mf Salih Özcan            10    1   11
Fw Mathew Leckie          10    1   11     Fw Arda Güler             12    1   13
Fw Nestory Irankunda       9    2   11     Fw Kenan Yıldız           14    1   15
Fw Cristian Volpato        8    1    9     Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu       10    1   11
Fw Tete Yengi              8    1    9     Fw Can Uzun                7    2    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      11 11 18 22 53        ROSTER TOTALS      11 11 33 24 48    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          1  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  2  0  0        DEFENSE COACH       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      11 11 20 22 53         T O T A L S       12 11 33 24 48    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  AUSTRALIA YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Mathew Ryan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 27.34 (no red card)

Sw Harry Souttar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.11 (no red card)

Df Alessandro Circati: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 52.98 (no red card)

Df Jacob Italiano: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.0 (no red card)

Mf Ajdin Hrustic: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.24 (no red card)

Mf Jackson Irvine: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 82.92 (no red card)

Fw Awer Mabil: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.51 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.21 (no red card)

Fw Mathew Leckie: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.98 (no red card)

Fw Nestory Irankunda: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 74.53 (no red card)

Fw Cristian Volpato: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.95 (no red card)

Fw Tete Yengi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 0.9 (no red card)

*******  TURKEY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Uğurcan Çakır: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 5.43 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 77.81 (no red card)

Sw Merih Demiral: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 1.31 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 20.75 (no second yellow)

Df Mert Müldür: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 67.82 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 50.93 (no red card)

Df Ferdi Kadıoğlu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 7.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 19.93 (no red card)

Df Çağlar Söyüncü: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 79.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 3.89 (no red card)

Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 67.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 56.47 (no red card)

Mf Salih Özcan: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 89.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 28.01 (no red card)

Fw Arda Güler: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 55.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 17.75 (no red card)

Fw Kenan Yıldız: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 40.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 25.22 (no red card)

Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 42.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 41.3 (no red card)

Fw Can Uzun: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 92.4 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 86.6 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  AUSTRALIA CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Australia Team Hardness = 0
   - Turkey Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Mathew Ryan: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 70.05 (no injury) 
Sw Harry Souttar: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 95.73 (no injury) 
Df Alessandro Circati: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 94.75 (no injury) 
Df Jacob Italiano: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 38.2 (no injury) 
Mf Ajdin Hrustic: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 19.71 (no injury) 
Mf Jackson Irvine: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 69.43 (no injury) 
Fw Awer Mabil: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 86.67 (no injury) 
Fw Mathew Leckie: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 59.46 (no injury) 
Fw Nestory Irankunda: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 95.44 (no injury) 
Fw Cristian Volpato: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 72.2 (no injury) 
Fw Tete Yengi: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.28 (no injury) 

*******  TURKEY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Turkey Team Hardness = 1
   - Australia Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Uğurcan Çakır: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 98.84 (no injury) 
Sw Merih Demiral: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 66.58 (no injury) 
Df Mert Müldür: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 51.33 (no injury) 
Df Ferdi Kadıoğlu: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 88.98 (no injury) 
Df Çağlar Söyüncü: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 45.68 (no injury) 
Mf Hakan Çalhanoğlu: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 29.01 (no injury) 
Mf Salih Özcan: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 23.96 (no injury) 
Fw Arda Güler: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 74.37 (no injury) 
Fw Kenan Yıldız: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 54.37 (no injury) 
Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 57.29 (no injury) 
Fw Can Uzun: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 16.62 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  TURKEY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Awer Mabil SL 12
   - Defending Gk: Uğurcan Çakır SL 10

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 73 (no penalty kick)

*******  AUSTRALIA CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Kenan Yıldız SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Mathew Ryan SL 10

     intRndPk = 37
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 37 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  AUSTRALIA ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Australia                11  11  20  22  53
  Turkey                   12  11  33  24  48

Australia Fw Attacks = 20 (53 - 33); result rounded up
Australia Mf Attacks = 0 ((22 - 24) / 2;  rounded up)
Australia Df Attacks = 0 ((20 - 48) / 3;  rounded up)
Australia Total Attacks = 20

1: Attack for Fw Mathew Leckie
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Tete Yengi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Fw Mathew Leckie
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 43 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 36.96 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Nestory Irankunda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Mathew Leckie
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Mathew Leckie
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 74.79 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 23.84 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Nestory Irankunda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 39.45 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Nestory Irankunda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Cristian Volpato
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Cristian Volpato
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Nestory Irankunda
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Tete Yengi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Awer Mabil
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Tete Yengi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 12.52 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  TURKEY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Turkey                   12  11  33  24  48
  Australia                11  11  20  22  53

Turkey Fw Attacks = 28 (48 - 20); result rounded up
Turkey Mf Attacks = 1 ((24 - 22) / 2) ; result rounded up
Turkey Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 53) / 3;  rounded up)
Turkey Total Attacks = 29

1: Attack for Mf Salih Özcan
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Arda Güler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 24 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 13.75 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Can Uzun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Arda Güler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 75.96 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Arda Güler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 38.5 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
17: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 87.33 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
18: Attack for Fw Arda Güler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Arda Güler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack) 
21: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Arda Güler
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
23: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Can Uzun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 84.15 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
25: Attack for Fw Can Uzun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
27: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
28: Attack for Fw Kenan Yıldız
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
29: Attack for Fw Kerem Aktürkoglu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
AUSTRALIA 1  -  TURKEY 3
 
Match Notes
Does the winner advance to the Round of 32 and am I spelling the new Turkey (Turkiye?) name wrong?
Allan (Mexico) 06/12 - 11:24 PM  
This is about the most mixed set of predictions I've seen so far...
Allan (Mexico) 06/13 - 12:56 AM  
Who you calling Turkey?
John (Turkey) 06/15 - 8:40 AM  
 
 
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