I strolled through the Pérez Art Museum Miami this morning and stood a long time before a Wifredo Lam canvas — all those fractured, straining figures reaching for something just beyond their grasp, which is precisely what Senegal will feel like against Modrić today. That Croatian midfield, with Kovačić alongside him, will simply possess the ball like it belongs to them — unhurried, inevitable, suffocating — and Senegal's attackers will find themselves chasing shadows on a Miami afternoon. Kramarić is the kind of striker who waits patiently for one moment of clarity, and in a tight game like this, one moment is all Croatia will need.

Croatia's midfield engine is simply operating at a different level here — Modrić and Kovačić will suffocate Senegal's transition game before it even starts, and with six attacking sequences to Senegal's two, the pressure will eventually tell. Koulibaly is magnificent, but holding a disciplined defensive line against sustained Croatian waves for ninety minutes is an enormous ask, and one set-piece or clever Kramarić run could be all it takes. Mendy will be tested far more than Livaković tonight, and I fancy Croatia to grind out a narrow but thoroughly deserved victory. Speaking of grinding things out — I attempted a Key Lime Pie down in Miami this week, and let's just say the meringue had ambitions that my German pastry instincts could not quite deliver on.