(H)
AFC Rushden & Diamonds
John Holden
Luton Town FC
Mike Cabral
League Round 14
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS LUTON TOWN FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Kevin Hawkins 16 1 17 Gk Hayden Barnes 13 0 13
Sw Kai Laidlaw 14 1 15 Sw Joel Strömberg 15 2 17
Df Baron Jackson 13 2 15 Df Philipp Koch 18 2 20
Df Gareth Trickelbank 11 0 11 Df Reis Golan 12 2 14
Df Hayden Duncan 9 2 11 Df Frank Goodwin 8 2 10
Df Oscar Anderson 4 2 6 Mf Rhys Johnstone 8 2 10
Mf Gareth Scott 14 1 15 Mf Harley Ritchie 8 2 10
Mf Henry Henry 9 2 11 Fw Philipp Hoffmann 13 2 15
Fw Fernando Cano 14 0 14 Fw Corey Williams 12 2 14
Fw Sam East 15 1 16 Fw Roberto Conti 8 2 10
Fw Nick Baumann 8 2 10 Fw Victor Jourdan 8 2 10
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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17 15 43 26 40 ROSTER TOTALS 13 17 44 20 49
1 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 7 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
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18 15 43 26 47 T O T A L S 13 17 44 20 49
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============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Kevin Hawkins: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 44.52 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 50.34 (no red card)
Sw Kai Laidlaw: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 1.59 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 45.3 (no second yellow)
Df Baron Jackson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.15 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 53.3 (no red card)
Df Gareth Trickelbank: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 52.29 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 92.6 (no red card)
Df Hayden Duncan: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 48.98 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 33.29 (no red card)
Df Oscar Anderson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 60.18 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 38.01 (no red card)
Mf Gareth Scott: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 80.49 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 32.89 (no red card)
Mf Henry Henry: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 20.5 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 85.81 (no red card)
Fw Fernando Cano: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 37.9 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 49.76 (no red card)
Fw Sam East: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.32 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 99.3 (no red card)
Fw Nick Baumann: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 60.16 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 94.92 (no red card)
******* LUTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Hayden Barnes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.24 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 20.75 (no red card)
Sw Joel Strömberg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.94 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.91 (no red card)
Df Philipp Koch: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 18.4 (no red card)
Df Reis Golan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.45 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 39.74 (no red card)
Df Frank Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 79.8 (no red card)
Mf Rhys Johnstone: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 38.36 (no red card)
Mf Harley Ritchie: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.7 (no red card)
Fw Philipp Hoffmann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 18.67 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.08 (no red card)
Fw Corey Williams: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.42 (no red card)
Fw Roberto Conti: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.83 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 38.43 (no red card)
Fw Victor Jourdan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.58 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 28.88 (no red card)
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I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds Team Hardness = 1
- Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Kevin Hawkins: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 11.56 (no injury)
Sw Kai Laidlaw: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 85.6 (no injury)
Df Baron Jackson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 54.68 (no injury)
Df Gareth Trickelbank: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 47.78 (no injury)
Df Hayden Duncan: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 71.96 (no injury)
Df Oscar Anderson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 35.69 (no injury)
Mf Gareth Scott: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 88.81 (no injury)
Mf Henry Henry: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 60.8 (no injury)
Fw Fernando Cano: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 50.95 (no injury)
Fw Sam East: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 21.2 (no injury)
Fw Nick Baumann: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 96.78 (no injury)
******* LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
- AFC Rushden & Diamonds Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Hayden Barnes: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 46.29 (no injury)
Sw Joel Strömberg: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 38.25 (no injury)
Df Philipp Koch: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 6.37 (no injury)
Df Reis Golan: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 87.88 (no injury)
Df Frank Goodwin: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 39.14 (no injury)
Mf Rhys Johnstone: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 32.41 (no injury)
Mf Harley Ritchie: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 50.28 (no injury)
Fw Philipp Hoffmann: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 56.79 (no injury)
Fw Corey Williams: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 38.93 (no injury)
Fw Roberto Conti: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 7.6 (no injury)
Fw Victor Jourdan: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 82.51 (no injury)
============================================================================
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Sam East SL 15
- Defending Gk: Hayden Barnes SL 13
intRndPk = 22
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 22 (no penalty kick)
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Philipp Koch SL 18
- Defending Gk: Kevin Hawkins SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 71 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 18 15 43 26 47
Luton Town FC 13 17 44 20 49
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Fw Attacks = 3 (47 - 44); result rounded up
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Mf Attacks = 3 ((26 - 20) / 2) ; result rounded up
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Df Attacks = 0 ((43 - 49) / 3; rounded up)
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Total Attacks = 6
1: Attack for Mf Henry Henry
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 1.22 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Mf Gareth Scott
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Mf Henry Henry
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Fernando Cano
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 53 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 69.25% | Random number = 99.73 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
5: Attack for Fw Nick Baumann
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 50 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Sam East
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack)
******* LUTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Luton Town FC 13 17 44 20 49
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 18 15 43 26 47
Luton Town FC Fw Attacks = 6 (49 - 43); result rounded up
Luton Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((20 - 26) / 2; rounded up)
Luton Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((44 - 47) / 3; rounded up)
Luton Town FC Total Attacks = 6
1: Attack for Fw Corey Williams
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 35.8 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Victor Jourdan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 70.37 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Philipp Hoffmann
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Corey Williams
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Roberto Conti
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 41 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 75.0 (Shot Saved by Gk)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS 1 - LUTON TOWN FC 0
Match Notes
Fortunate to win
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 06/27 - 11:01 PM
Rushden win. Luton lose. The ball went in once and not the other way. I have calculated every possible response to this and settled, as always, on quiet acceptance.
Olmec Head Marvin (Goole AFC) 06/29 - 7:30 PM