I visited the Nasher Sculpture Center in Dallas recently and stood before a Rodin bronze that captured perfectly the tension between power and stillness — much like this match. England press with genuine menace through their midfield, but Croatia's defensive structure, anchored by the imperious Gvardiol sweeping up every loose ball, absorbs pressure the way a great sculpture absorbs light. Modrić, even now, will find the one pocket of space England forget to close, and that single moment of genius will cancel out whatever England build through sheer industry.

England dominate possession and push forward aggressively — eleven attacking phases against Croatia's six tells you everything about where the tempo is going — but Gvardiol and that Croatian defensive block are organized enough to frustrate Kane and Saka for long stretches, and Livaković will be busy but reliable between the sticks. The real battle is in the midfield corridor, where Modrić — even at this stage of his career — will find the half-spaces that England's shape occasionally concedes, threading one moment of vintage quality that Croatia can convert. I see England grabbing a deserved lead through sheer attacking volume, but Croatia's disciplined structure grinds them down and earns that classic Balkan point. On a lighter note, I tried my hand at a kolač here in Dallas last night — the Croatian walnut roll — and let's just say the dough had other plans entirely.