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S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

NORWAY                                     SENEGAL

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Ørjan Nyland            9    2   11     Gk Édouard Mendy          13    2   15
Sw Kristoffer Ajer         9    1   10     Sw Kalidou Koulibaly      13    2   15
Df Leo Østigård            9    2   11     Df Krépin Diatta          11    2   13
Df Marcus Holmgren Pedersen 9    1   10     Df Ismail Jakobs          11    2   13
Df Torbjørn Heggem         7    2    9     Df Abdoulaye Seck         11    2   13
Mf Martin Ødegaard        11    1   12     Mf Pape Matar Sarr        13    2   15
Mf Kristian Thorstvedt     9    2   11     Mf Idrissa Gueye          11    2   13
Mf Fredrik Aursnes         9    2   11     Fw Sadio Mané             15    2   17
Fw Antonio Nusa            9    2   11     Fw Nicolas Jackson        13    2   15
Fw Jørgen Strand Larsen    9    0    9     Fw Ismaïla Sarr           15    2   17
Fw Julian Ryerson          9    2   11     Fw Bamba Dieng            11    2   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      11 10 30 34 31        ROSTER TOTALS      15 15 39 28 62    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  3  3  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  2  0  0        DEFENSE COACH       0  0  2  0  0    
=======================================================================
      11 10 32 34 31         T O T A L S       18 18 41 28 62    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  NORWAY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Ørjan Nyland: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 82.97 (no red card)

Sw Kristoffer Ajer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 38.86 (no red card)

Df Leo Østigård: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 82.92 (no red card)

Df Marcus Holmgren Pedersen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 69.45 (no red card)

Df Torbjørn Heggem: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.91 (no red card)

Mf Martin Ødegaard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.2 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 0.03 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Martin Ødegaard new match skill level =  6
      Martin Ødegaard new match total level =  7

Mf Kristian Thorstvedt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 14.2 (no red card)

Mf Fredrik Aursnes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.17 (no red card)

Fw Antonio Nusa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.63 (no red card)

Fw Jørgen Strand Larsen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 88.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 49.88 (no red card)

Fw Julian Ryerson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 51.52 (no red card)

*******  SENEGAL YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Édouard Mendy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.24 (no red card)

Sw Kalidou Koulibaly: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 34.1 (no red card)

Df Krépin Diatta: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.94 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 40.49 (no red card)

Df Ismail Jakobs: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.57 (no red card)

Df Abdoulaye Seck: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.65 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 92.97 (no red card)

Mf Pape Matar Sarr: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.23 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 6.87 (no red card)

Mf Idrissa Gueye: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.06 (no red card)

Fw Sadio Mané: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 86.41 (no red card)

Fw Nicolas Jackson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 59.12 (no red card)

Fw Ismaïla Sarr: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.11 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.65 (no red card)

Fw Bamba Dieng: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 79.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 94.24 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  NORWAY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Norway Team Hardness = 0
   - Senegal Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Ørjan Nyland: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 3.48 (no injury) 
Sw Kristoffer Ajer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 50.97 (no injury) 
Df Leo Østigård: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 26.91 (no injury) 
Df Marcus Holmgren Pedersen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.17 (no injury) 
Df Torbjørn Heggem: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 41.49 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Ødegaard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.04 (no injury) 
Mf Kristian Thorstvedt: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 55.77 (no injury) 
Mf Fredrik Aursnes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 85.81 (no injury) 
Fw Antonio Nusa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.83 (no injury) 
Fw Jørgen Strand Larsen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 92.73 (no injury) 
Fw Julian Ryerson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.5 (no injury) 

*******  SENEGAL CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Senegal Team Hardness = 0
   - Norway Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Édouard Mendy: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 35.5 (no injury) 
Sw Kalidou Koulibaly: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.74 (no injury) 
Df Krépin Diatta: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.44 (no injury) 
Df Ismail Jakobs: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 58.33 (no injury) 
Df Abdoulaye Seck: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.38 (no injury) 
Mf Pape Matar Sarr: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 50.16 (no injury) 
Mf Idrissa Gueye: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.6 (no injury) 
Fw Sadio Mané: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 71.69 (no injury) 
Fw Nicolas Jackson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 73.44 (no injury) 
Fw Ismaïla Sarr: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 2.48 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Ismaïla Sarr is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Ismaïla Sarr new match skill level =  8
      Ismaïla Sarr new match total level =  10
Fw Bamba Dieng: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.75 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SENEGAL CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Leo Østigård SL 9
   - Defending Gk: Édouard Mendy SL 13

     intRndPk = 74
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 74 (no penalty kick)

*******  NORWAY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Sadio Mané SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Ørjan Nyland SL 9

     intRndPk = 85
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 85 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  NORWAY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Norway                   11  10  32  29  31
  Senegal                  18  18  41  28  55

Norway Fw Attacks = 0 (31 - 41)
Norway Mf Attacks = 1 ((29 - 28) / 2) ; result rounded up
Norway Df Attacks = 0 ((32 - 55) / 3;  rounded up)
Norway Total Attacks = 1

1: Attack for Mf Kristian Thorstvedt
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 72 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 30.42 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  SENEGAL ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Senegal                  18  18  41  28  55
  Norway                   11  10  32  29  31

Senegal Fw Attacks = 23 (55 - 32); result rounded up
Senegal Mf Attacks = 0 ((28 - 29) / 2;  rounded up)
Senegal Df Attacks = 4 ((41 - 31) / 3); result rounded up
Senegal Total Attacks = 27

1: Attack for Df Krépin Diatta
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Ismail Jakobs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 55 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 12.55 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Abdoulaye Seck
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Df Krépin Diatta
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 47 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target) 
7: Attack for Fw Ismaïla Sarr
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Nicolas Jackson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Nicolas Jackson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Ismaïla Sarr
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 46.99 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Fw Bamba Dieng
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Fw Nicolas Jackson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
15: Attack for Fw Bamba Dieng
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 7 (Shot Off Target) 
17: Attack for Fw Nicolas Jackson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Ismaïla Sarr
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Ismaïla Sarr
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 6 (Shot Off Target) 
21: Attack for Fw Nicolas Jackson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
22: Attack for Fw Nicolas Jackson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 47.6 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
23: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
26: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target) 
27: Attack for Fw Sadio Mané
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
NORWAY 0  -  SENEGAL 0
 
Match Notes
I see the anti-Olmec Steve tweak is working well. 7 attacks lost through injury, 50% SW stops 63% and only 30% shots on target
Steve (Senegal) 06/22 - 6:29 PM  
I was told there would be no math(s)...sorry Steve. That was rough...
Allan (Mexico) 06/22 - 10:11 PM  
Surprising result.
Brian (Germany) 06/23 - 12:52 PM  
 
 
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