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AFC Rushden & Diamonds
John Holden
 
Luton Town FC
Mike Cabral
 
 
League Round 8
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS                     LUTON TOWN FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Gordon Wilkins         16    2   18     Gk Dylan Foster           16    2   18
Sw Luís Morais             7    2    9     Sw Jason Meyer            12    2   14
Df Charles Clarke         12    2   14     Df Logan Peters           12    0   12
Df Lucas Soramaki          7    2    9     Df Harvey Marshall        10    2   12
Mf Ashton Ali             11    2   13     Df Robin Ostrander         7    2    9
Mf Thomas Thomsen         11    0   11     Mf Ethan Peters           12    2   14
Mf Jay Hill                9    1   10     Mf Jung Hee  Kwon         11    2   13
Fw Angus Williamson       14    2   16     Fw Kerecsen Deák          12    2   14
Fw Harvey Davis           14    1   15     Fw Tom Bell               10    1   11
Fw Mark Solomon            7    2    9     Fw Nils Schneider          7    2    9
Fw William Hay             3    2    5     Fw William Johnson         7    0    7

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18  9 23 34 45        ROSTER TOTALS      18 14 33 27 41    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      19  9 23 34 54         T O T A L S       18 14 33 27 41    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Gordon Wilkins: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 75.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 75.32 (no red card)

Sw Luís Morais: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 25.14 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 64.85 (no red card)

Df Charles Clarke: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 5.38 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 42.12 (no second yellow)

Df Lucas Soramaki: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 26.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 63.67 (no red card)

Mf Ashton Ali: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 31.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 86.29 (no red card)

Mf Thomas Thomsen: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 84.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 89.82 (no red card)

Mf Jay Hill: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 97.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 50.18 (no red card)

Fw Angus Williamson: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 83.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 81.49 (no red card)

Fw Harvey Davis: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 57.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 90.96 (no red card)

Fw Mark Solomon: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 4.34 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 63.92 (no second yellow)

Fw William Hay: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 60.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 16.17 (no red card)

*******  LUTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Dylan Foster: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 43.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 25.88 (no red card)

Sw Jason Meyer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.97 (no red card)

Df Logan Peters: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 34.11 (no red card)

Df Harvey Marshall: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 8.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.44 (no red card)

Df Robin Ostrander: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 47.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 76.2 (no red card)

Mf Ethan Peters: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.9 (no red card)

Mf Jung Hee  Kwon: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.14 (no red card)

Fw Kerecsen Deák: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.0 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.94 (no red card)

Fw Tom Bell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.44 (no red card)

Fw Nils Schneider: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 92.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 80.38 (no red card)

Fw William Johnson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.42 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.04 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - AFC Rushden & Diamonds Team Hardness = 1
   - Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Gordon Wilkins: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 70.77 (no injury) 
Sw Luís Morais: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 14.1 (no injury) 
Df Charles Clarke: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 37.21 (no injury) 
Df Lucas Soramaki: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 26.98 (no injury) 
Mf Ashton Ali: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 61.55 (no injury) 
Mf Thomas Thomsen: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 56.96 (no injury) 
Mf Jay Hill: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 97.85 (no injury) 
Fw Angus Williamson: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 97.29 (no injury) 
Fw Harvey Davis: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 33.2 (no injury) 
Fw Mark Solomon: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 62.1 (no injury) 
Fw William Hay: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 7.92 (no injury) 

*******  LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Luton Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - AFC Rushden & Diamonds Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Dylan Foster: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 69.45 (no injury) 
Sw Jason Meyer: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 90.73 (no injury) 
Df Logan Peters: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 56.93 (no injury) 
Df Harvey Marshall: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 76.4 (no injury) 
Df Robin Ostrander: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 31.7 (no injury) 
Mf Ethan Peters: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 29.59 (no injury) 
Mf Jung Hee  Kwon: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 75.37 (no injury) 
Fw Kerecsen Deák: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 45.99 (no injury) 
Fw Tom Bell: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 89.23 (no injury) 
Fw Nils Schneider: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 73.46 (no injury) 
Fw William Johnson: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 50.63 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  LUTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Angus Williamson SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Dylan Foster SL 16

     intRndPk = 65
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 65 (no penalty kick)

*******  AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Logan Peters SL 12
   - Defending Gk: Gordon Wilkins SL 16

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 64 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  AFC Rushden & Diamonds   19   9  23  34  54
  Luton Town FC            18  14  33  27  41

AFC Rushden & Diamonds Fw Attacks = 21 (54 - 33); result rounded up
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Mf Attacks = 4 ((34 - 27) / 2) ; result rounded up
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Df Attacks = 0 ((23 - 41) / 3;  rounded up)
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Total Attacks = 25

1: Attack for Mf Jay Hill
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Thomas Thomsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Ashton Ali
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 14 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Mf Thomas Thomsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 7 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 96.13 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
8: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw William Hay
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target) 
12: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 23.48 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 67.29 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
18: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
19: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 44.09 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
21: Attack for Fw Harvey Davis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 32.88 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
22: Attack for Fw William Hay
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 68 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 7.73 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
23: Attack for Fw William Hay
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
24: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
25: Attack for Fw Angus Williamson
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  LUTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Luton Town FC            18  14  33  27  41
  AFC Rushden & Diamonds   19   9  23  34  54

Luton Town FC Fw Attacks = 18 (41 - 23); result rounded up
Luton Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((27 - 34) / 2;  rounded up)
Luton Town FC Df Attacks = 0 ((33 - 54) / 3;  rounded up)
Luton Town FC Total Attacks = 18

1: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
2: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 73.33 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Fw Nils Schneider
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 53 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 43.2 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 40.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 18.74 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
6: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 43.68 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 54.57 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 4.72 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 84.38 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
14: Attack for Fw Nils Schneider
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 55.21 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
15: Attack for Fw Nils Schneider
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
16: Attack for Fw Tom Bell
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 37.21 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
18: Attack for Fw Kerecsen Deák
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 31 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
AFC RUSHDEN & DIAMONDS 1  -  LUTON TOWN FC 1
 
Match Notes
We welcome our fellow T11 stragglers
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 02/17 - 8:29 PM
Haha, indeed, we need to start to grab some road points if we are going to survive relegation.
Mike (Luton Town FC) 02/24 - 6:32 PM
Eh, a draw was probably about right here
John (AFC Rushden & Diamonds) 02/24 - 8:34 PM
Agree, happy with the point in the road.
Mike (Luton Town FC) 02/24 - 8:39 PM
 
 
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