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Ilkeston Town FC
Steve Turner
 
Harrogate Railway AFC
Allan Sellers
 
 
League Round 9
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

ILKESTON TOWN FC                           HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Mark Daugherty         16    2   18     Gk Martin Denis           15    2   17
Sw Declan Wilson          14    2   16     Sw William Lewis          10    2   12
Df Bryan Shrimpton        10    0   10     Df Martim Alves           13    2   15
Df Matty Parsons          12    2   14     Df Benjamin Newton        11    2   13
Df Oliver Brown           11    2   13     Df Lennard Richter        10    2   12
Df Atle Svendsen          10    2   12     Mf Lewis Smith            13    2   15
Mf Diogo DaSilva          10    2   12     Mf Juan Jose Carmona      12    2   14
Mf Nicolás Cardozo         9    2   11     Mf Don Lester             10    2   12
Fw Dennis Honeybun        12    2   14     Fw Braulio  Salas         12    2   14
Fw Ezequiel  Segura       15    2   17     Fw John Coppell           16    2   18
Fw Thomas Reilly          10    1   11     Fw Glenn Cook             11    2   13

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      18 16 49 23 42        ROSTER TOTALS      17 12 40 41 45    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      18 16 49 23 51         T O T A L S       17 12 40 41 45    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Mark Daugherty: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 18.94 (no red card)

Sw Declan Wilson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 2.82 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.23 (no second yellow)

Df Bryan Shrimpton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.77 (no red card)

Df Matty Parsons: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.88 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 88.98 (no red card)

Df Oliver Brown: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 76.63 (no red card)

Df Atle Svendsen: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 22.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 25.76 (no red card)

Mf Diogo DaSilva: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 75.49 (no red card)

Mf Nicolás Cardozo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.79 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 36.61 (no red card)

Fw Dennis Honeybun: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.87 (no red card)

Fw Ezequiel  Segura: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.77 (no red card)

Fw Thomas Reilly: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.11 (no red card)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Martin Denis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.72 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 54.16 (no red card)

Sw William Lewis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 61.21 (no red card)

Df Martim Alves: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.37 (no red card)

Df Benjamin Newton: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.15 (no red card)

Df Lennard Richter: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 6.62 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.74 (no red card)

Mf Lewis Smith: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.02 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 40.94 (no red card)

Mf Juan Jose Carmona: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 47.13 (no red card)

Mf Don Lester: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 82.38 (no red card)

Fw Braulio  Salas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.71 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.63 (no red card)

Fw John Coppell: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.15 (no red card)

Fw Glenn Cook: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 27.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 35.38 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Mark Daugherty: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 76.78 (no injury) 
Sw Declan Wilson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 68.42 (no injury) 
Df Bryan Shrimpton: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 38.75 (no injury) 
Df Matty Parsons: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 77.03 (no injury) 
Df Oliver Brown: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 77.76 (no injury) 
Df Atle Svendsen: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 8.42 (no injury) 
Mf Diogo DaSilva: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 40.56 (no injury) 
Mf Nicolás Cardozo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.11 (no injury) 
Fw Dennis Honeybun: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 45.49 (no injury) 
Fw Ezequiel  Segura: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 83.24 (no injury) 
Fw Thomas Reilly: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.04 (no injury) 

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Harrogate Railway AFC Team Hardness = 0
   - Ilkeston Town FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Martin Denis: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 17.15 (no injury) 
Sw William Lewis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.4 (no injury) 
Df Martim Alves: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.09 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 3
      Martim Alves is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Martim Alves new match skill level =  7
      Martim Alves new match total level =  9
Df Benjamin Newton: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 13.32 (no injury) 
Df Lennard Richter: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 27.0 (no injury) 
Mf Lewis Smith: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.56 (no injury) 
Mf Juan Jose Carmona: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 7.62 (no injury) 
Mf Don Lester: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 57.42 (no injury) 
Fw Braulio  Salas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 84.89 (no injury) 
Fw John Coppell: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 93.68 (no injury) 
Fw Glenn Cook: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 65.61 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Ezequiel  Segura SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Martin Denis SL 15

     intRndPk = 31
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 31 (no penalty kick)

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: John Coppell SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Mark Daugherty SL 16

     intRndPk = 34
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 34 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  ILKESTON TOWN FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Ilkeston Town FC         18  16  49  23  51
  Harrogate Railway AFC    17  12  34  41  45

Ilkeston Town FC Fw Attacks = 17 (51 - 34); result rounded up
Ilkeston Town FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((23 - 41) / 2;  rounded up)
Ilkeston Town FC Df Attacks = 2 ((49 - 45) / 3); result rounded up
Ilkeston Town FC Total Attacks = 19

1: Attack for Df Matty Parsons
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Atle Svendsen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 21 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Ezequiel  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Dennis Honeybun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 88 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 21.06 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Fw Thomas Reilly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Dennis Honeybun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Ezequiel  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Fw Thomas Reilly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Fw Ezequiel  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Dennis Honeybun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 35 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Ezequiel  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 8.15 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Dennis Honeybun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 82.82 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
13: Attack for Fw Dennis Honeybun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 78.83 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
14: Attack for Fw Thomas Reilly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 87.88 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
15: Attack for Fw Thomas Reilly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 94.61 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
16: Attack for Fw Thomas Reilly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Ezequiel  Segura
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
18: Attack for Fw Dennis Honeybun
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 88.69 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
19: Attack for Fw Thomas Reilly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 54% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 42 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Harrogate Railway AFC    17  12  34  41  45
  Ilkeston Town FC         18  16  49  23  51

Harrogate Railway AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (45 - 49)
Harrogate Railway AFC Mf Attacks = 9 ((41 - 23) / 2) ; result rounded up
Harrogate Railway AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((34 - 51) / 3;  rounded up)
Harrogate Railway AFC Total Attacks = 9

1: Attack for Mf Lewis Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Mf Don Lester
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Lewis Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 54 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Lewis Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 62 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Don Lester
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf Lewis Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 48.54 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Don Lester
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Don Lester
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 77.67 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Mf Lewis Smith
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 32.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
ILKESTON TOWN FC 5  -  HARROGATE RAILWAY AFC 0
 
Match Notes
We are averaging 2.5 goals per match in our last 6 matches. #NotMindGames
Allan (Harrogate Railway AFC) 02/29 - 12:56 AM
So Al is saying "you can't stop me, you can only hope to control me"
Dave (AFC Wimbledon) 03/02 - 3:26 PM
It was all over after 8 minutes.
Steve (Ilkeston Town FC) 03/02 - 8:14 PM
 
 
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