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The Art of Luck
Posted by John Holden on Tuesday, Aug. 29th, 2023 at 3:49 PM

OLMEC gives and OLMEC takes away, but at the end of the day, MSWL United is poker - a game of incomplete information where you are trying to maximise your position.

For instance, you can play perfect poker, but if your opponent gets a pair of aces every single hand you will lose more than you will win.

From seasons 2-32, several teams have been luckier than others. On average, the sum of skills in any individual league game is 134, as if every player in each game was a SL 12⅑. (I ignored cup games for this analysis.)

With that being said, one team faced a season where the average team they went up against had a SL 14 for each player: Forest Green Rovers in season 6. Not surprisingly the club's vegan canteen was relegated in last place with a 3-3-12 record.

Droylsden and Hyde are tied for second - in the same season! In season 26, Droylsden managed a 7th place finish in the top division while Hyde went down bottom.

The next three of the unluckiest places however go to Burton in seasons 24, 10, and 6th, where in two of the seasons they finished in a respectable 6th in the first division and finished in 9th in season 10.

I don't have data on divisions by season unfortunately but in general D1 teams are indeed the ones that have risen to the top. Rushden's worst opposition list occurred in an 8th place D3 season though, which brings us to the "luckiest" teams - Worksop faced an average player of 9.53 in season 23 and still finished 6th in the third division, Kingstonian finished 6th in the third division in season 17, Tonbridge finished 4th in D3 in season 18, and then finally Luton used it to their advantage in Season 23 finishing top in D3. So just because your opponent isn't using their best cards against you - that probably means they either don't think they can win, or they're too convinced they can win!

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