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Thursday, February 6th, 2025 - 01:08:53 PM (gmt)
 
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Preston North End FC
Ian Lindsay
 
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brian Beerman
 
 
League Round 3
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

PRESTON NORTH END FC                       BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Valentin Lugn          15    2   17     Gk Samir Bouaziz           6    2    8
Sw Tjoris Dumfried        12    2   14     Sw Bradley Perry          12    2   14
Df Miguel Torres          10    2   12     Df Eric Aidoo             13    1   14
Df Joel Calvo              6    2    8     Df Óscar Cespedes         12    2   14
Mf Miguel López           12    2   14     Df Jaap De wit            11    2   13
Mf Bahaeeddine Ait         6    2    8     Mf Rigobert Mahamat       13    2   15
Fw Šime Sucic             10    2   12     Mf Yuriy Taran            11    2   13
Fw Raphaël Mayeux         10    2   12     Mf William Gomez          11    2   13
Fw Sebastian Murillo       8    2   10     Mf Jacques Mefire          6    2    8
Fw Pol Ruiz                6    2    8     Fw Elliot Wilkins         16    1   17
Fw Victor Pino             3    2    5     Fw Ruben Gutiérrez         7    2    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      17 14 20 22 47        ROSTER TOTALS       8 14 41 49 26    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  1  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 14 20 22 56         T O T A L S        8 15 41 49 26    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Valentin Lugn: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 5.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 36.98 (no red card)

Sw Tjoris Dumfried: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 35.12 (no red card)

Df Miguel Torres: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.13 (no red card)

Df Joel Calvo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.18 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 19.26 (no second yellow)

Mf Miguel López: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.57 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.59 (no red card)

Mf Bahaeeddine Ait: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.96 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 98.61 (no second yellow)

Fw Šime Sucic: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.52 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.76 (no red card)

Fw Raphaël Mayeux: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 20.75 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.37 (no red card)

Fw Sebastian Murillo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.36 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 88.48 (no red card)

Fw Pol Ruiz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.92 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.63 (no red card)

Fw Victor Pino: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 25.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.55 (no red card)

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Samir Bouaziz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 9.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 63.89 (no red card)

Sw Bradley Perry: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 94.24 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 76.08 (no red card)

Df Eric Aidoo: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 52.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 9.02 (no red card)

Df Óscar Cespedes: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 15.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 74.59 (no red card)

Df Jaap De wit: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 56.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 18.74 (no red card)

Mf Rigobert Mahamat: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 37.02 (no red card)

Mf Yuriy Taran: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 26.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 10.46 (no red card)

Mf William Gomez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 59.6 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 87.55 (no red card)

Mf Jacques Mefire: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 38.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 57.08 (no red card)

Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 34.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 88.17 (no red card)

Fw Ruben Gutiérrez: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 7.06 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 34.74 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Valentin Lugn: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 20.48 (no injury) 
Sw Tjoris Dumfried: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 90.04 (no injury) 
Df Miguel Torres: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 7.38 (no injury) 
Df Joel Calvo: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 21.09 (no injury) 
Mf Miguel López: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 10.19 (no injury) 
Mf Bahaeeddine Ait: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 4.7 (no injury) 
Fw Šime Sucic: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 26.97 (no injury) 
Fw Raphaël Mayeux: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 73.08 (no injury) 
Fw Sebastian Murillo: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 94.95 (no injury) 
Fw Pol Ruiz: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 43.68 (no injury) 
Fw Victor Pino: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 16.57 (no injury) 

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 1
   - Preston North End FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Samir Bouaziz: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 6.39 (no injury) 
Sw Bradley Perry: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 75.58 (no injury) 
Df Eric Aidoo: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 16.29 (no injury) 
Df Óscar Cespedes: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 65.75 (no injury) 
Df Jaap De wit: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 38.23 (no injury) 
Mf Rigobert Mahamat: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 23.07 (no injury) 
Mf Yuriy Taran: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 80.18 (no injury) 
Mf William Gomez: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 53.55 (no injury) 
Mf Jacques Mefire: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 18.19 (no injury) 
Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 41.61 (no injury) 
Fw Ruben Gutiérrez: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 7.88 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Miguel López SL 12
   - Defending Gk: Samir Bouaziz SL 6

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 62 (no penalty kick)

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Elliot Wilkins SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Valentin Lugn SL 15

     intRndPk = 62
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 62 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  PRESTON NORTH END FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Preston North End FC     17  14  20  22  56
  Brighton & Hove Albion   8  15  41  49  26

Preston North End FC Fw Attacks = 15 (56 - 41); result rounded up
Preston North End FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((22 - 49) / 2;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Df Attacks = 0 ((20 - 26) / 3;  rounded up)
Preston North End FC Total Attacks = 15

1: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Fw Sebastian Murillo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 97.61 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
4: Attack for Fw Pol Ruiz
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Šime Sucic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Šime Sucic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 12.59 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Fw Šime Sucic
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
9: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 41 (Sw stopped attack) 
10: Attack for Fw Sebastian Murillo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
11: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 84 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 81 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 6.11 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
12: Attack for Fw Raphaël Mayeux
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 16 (Shot Off Target) 
13: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 11 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Victor Pino
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 43 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 77.58 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
15: Attack for Fw Sebastian Murillo
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 33 (Shot Off Target) 

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brighton & Hove Albion   8  15  41  49  26
  Preston North End FC     17  14  20  22  56

Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 6 (26 - 20); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 14 ((49 - 22) / 2) ; result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 0 ((41 - 56) / 3;  rounded up)
Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 20

1: Attack for Mf Jacques Mefire
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 88 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 95.42 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 28 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 53 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Mf William Gomez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 58 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack) 
8: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 54 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 98.49 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
9: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 100 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 62.38 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
11: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack) 
12: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack) 
13: Attack for Mf Yuriy Taran
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
14: Attack for Mf Rigobert Mahamat
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 5 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Elliot Wilkins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
16: Attack for Fw Elliot Wilkins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack) 
17: Attack for Fw Ruben Gutiérrez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 24 (Shot Off Target) 
18: Attack for Fw Elliot Wilkins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 80 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 69.42 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
19: Attack for Fw Ruben Gutiérrez
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack) 
20: Attack for Fw Elliot Wilkins
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 58% | Random number = 1 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
PRESTON NORTH END FC 2  -  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 2
 
Match Notes
Such high hopes for the season, only to be crushed after two sessions.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 01/13 - 2:33 PM
A wide gap in GK skills today. Lucky our Gulls.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 01/19 - 3:10 AM
 
 
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