(H)
Crewe Alexandra FC
Carl Oakes
Cardiff City FC
Graham Wilkes
League Round 4
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CARDIFF CITY FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Ian Valle 6 2 8 Gk Andres Ruiz 6 2 8
Sw Piotr Sobolewski 13 2 15 Sw Noh Seon-min 3 2 5
Df Festus Abubakar 13 0 13 Df Gregory Robinson 10 0 10
Df Joe Wilson 12 0 12 Df Adesoji Ismaila 3 2 5
Df Dominique Coltorti 6 2 8 Df Ji-Hun Seung-gyu 2 2 4
Mf Ivan Jackson 10 0 10 Mf Tim Murphy 9 2 11
Mf Mario Pletikosa 9 1 10 Mf Ricardo Salcedo 6 2 8
Mf Clement Harouna 6 2 8 Mf Junho Sang-chul 3 2 5
Fw Olivier Havet 12 2 14 Fw Eddy Perez 6 2 8
Fw Gonzalo Lopez 14 0 14 Fw Tomas Eriksson 6 2 8
Fw Kalle Ljungberg 6 2 8 Fw Julio Guidice 3 2 5
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
8 15 33 28 36 ROSTER TOTALS 8 5 19 24 21
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 2 7 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
11 15 33 30 43 T O T A L S 8 5 19 24 21
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* CREWE ALEXANDRA FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Ian Valle: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.22 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 65.06 (no red card)
Sw Piotr Sobolewski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.66 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 69.22 (no red card)
Df Festus Abubakar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.62 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.97 (no red card)
Df Joe Wilson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.82 (no red card)
Df Dominique Coltorti: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.91 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.36 (no red card)
Mf Ivan Jackson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.92 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.02 (no red card)
Mf Mario Pletikosa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 35.41 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.28 (no red card)
Mf Clement Harouna: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.04 (no red card)
Fw Olivier Havet: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.92 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.54 (no red card)
Fw Gonzalo Lopez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.8 (no red card)
Fw Kalle Ljungberg: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.93 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 46.17 (no red card)
******* CARDIFF CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Andres Ruiz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.51 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 72.42 (no red card)
Sw Noh Seon-min: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.49 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.0 (no red card)
Df Gregory Robinson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.53 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.27 (no red card)
Df Adesoji Ismaila: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.43 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.71 (no red card)
Df Ji-Hun Seung-gyu: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.65 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 55.01 (no red card)
Mf Tim Murphy: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 15.09 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 83.76 (no red card)
Mf Ricardo Salcedo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.07 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 20.08 (no second yellow)
Mf Junho Sang-chul: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.31 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.99 (no red card)
Fw Eddy Perez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 94.81 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.76 (no red card)
Fw Tomas Eriksson: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 56.24 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.71 (no red card)
Fw Julio Guidice: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 13.42 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.88 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
- Cardiff City FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Ian Valle: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 46.68 (no injury)
Sw Piotr Sobolewski: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 88.17 (no injury)
Df Festus Abubakar: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 27.88 (no injury)
Df Joe Wilson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 69.58 (no injury)
Df Dominique Coltorti: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.42 (no injury)
Mf Ivan Jackson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.92 (no injury)
Mf Mario Pletikosa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 66.49 (no injury)
Mf Clement Harouna: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 28.23 (no injury)
Fw Olivier Havet: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.94 (no injury)
Fw Gonzalo Lopez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 9.05 (no injury)
Fw Kalle Ljungberg: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 66.43 (no injury)
******* CARDIFF CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Cardiff City FC Team Hardness = 0
- Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Andres Ruiz: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 21.89 (no injury)
Sw Noh Seon-min: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 19.69 (no injury)
Df Gregory Robinson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 29.58 (no injury)
Df Adesoji Ismaila: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 35.4 (no injury)
Df Ji-Hun Seung-gyu: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 94.34 (no injury)
Mf Tim Murphy: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 54.32 (no injury)
Mf Ricardo Salcedo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 79.03 (no injury)
Mf Junho Sang-chul: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 72.92 (no injury)
Fw Eddy Perez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 16.71 (no injury)
Fw Tomas Eriksson: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.9 (no injury)
Fw Julio Guidice: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 6.94 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* CARDIFF CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Gonzalo Lopez SL 14
- Defending Gk: Andres Ruiz SL 6
intRndPk = 11
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)
******* CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Gregory Robinson SL 10
- Defending Gk: Ian Valle SL 6
intRndPk = 57
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 57 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* CREWE ALEXANDRA FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Crewe Alexandra FC 11 15 33 30 43
Cardiff City FC 8 5 19 24 21
Crewe Alexandra FC Fw Attacks = 24 (43 - 19); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Mf Attacks = 3 ((30 - 24) / 2) ; result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Df Attacks = 4 ((33 - 21) / 3); result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Total Attacks = 31
1: Attack for Df Dominique Coltorti
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Df Joe Wilson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Df Festus Abubakar
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Df Joe Wilson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Mf Clement Harouna
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Mf Clement Harouna
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 26 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Mf Ivan Jackson
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 45 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 64 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 69.6 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
8: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 8 (Shot Off Target)
9: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 100 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 82.57 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
10: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 75 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 35.34 (Shot Saved by Gk)
11: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target)
12: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 93 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 47.9 (Shot Saved by Gk)
13: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 66 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 16.87 (Shot Saved by Gk)
14: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 59.85 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
15: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 46.98 (Shot Saved by Gk)
16: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 48 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 0.74 (Shot Saved by Gk)
17: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack)
18: Attack for Fw Kalle Ljungberg
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 60 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 90.4 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
19: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target)
20: Attack for Fw Kalle Ljungberg
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 52 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 42 (Shot Off Target)
21: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack)
22: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 60 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 49 (Shot Off Target)
23: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack)
24: Attack for Fw Kalle Ljungberg
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack)
25: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target)
26: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 71 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 58.0% | Random number = 29.85 (Shot Saved by Gk)
27: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
28: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack)
29: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
30: Attack for Fw Olivier Havet
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 99 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 40 (Shot Off Target)
31: Attack for Fw Gonzalo Lopez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 40% | Random number = 6 (Sw stopped attack)
******* CARDIFF CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Cardiff City FC 8 5 19 24 21
Crewe Alexandra FC 11 15 33 30 43
Cardiff City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (21 - 33)
Cardiff City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((24 - 30) / 2; rounded up)
Cardiff City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((19 - 43) / 3; rounded up)
Cardiff City FC Total Attacks = 0
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
CREWE ALEXANDRA FC 4 - CARDIFF CITY FC 0
Match Notes
History tells us home advantage should see us squeeze through but Olmec can never be trusted
Carl (Crewe Alexandra FC) 05/17 - 5:39 AM
Cautious Carl hosting a Cardiff side that can't decide what they are. Systematic meets confused — statistically, that should favour Crewe, though Checklist Carl has a gift for making the simple look complicated.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/18 - 6:30 PM
Carl is always a tough opponent
Graham (Cardiff City FC) 05/22 - 2:17 PM
Four nil at home. Cardiff never quite knowing where they want to be apparently extends to the pitch itself. Graham will have a quiet drive back through the Cotswolds.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/23 - 6:30 PM
Much needed points haul
Carl (Crewe Alexandra FC) 05/24 - 8:00 AM