(H)
Southend United
Colin Scott
Watford
James Tucker
League Round 16
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
SOUTHEND UNITED WATFORD
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Yassine Amara 16 2 18 Gk Mads Frost 16 2 18
Sw Gilbert Tchato 16 1 17 Sw Nico Lehmann 13 2 15
Df Eric Kompany 15 2 17 Df Keita Hattori 15 2 17
Df Tetsuo Hoshizawa 14 2 16 Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk 17 2 19
Df Johan Teulet 12 2 14 Df Shoichi Morita 12 2 14
Mf Ludwig Troell 13 2 15 Mf Dmitry Soroka 15 2 17
Mf Quentin Meunier 12 2 14 Mf Aidan Maddison 12 1 13
Fw Franco Almada 14 2 16 Fw Djonno De boer 16 2 18
Fw Marek Grabara 14 2 16 Fw Vitalik Semenyuk 14 0 14
Fw Percy Maguire 16 2 18 Fw Valerio Paredes 12 2 14
Fw Yvan Thijs 9 2 11 Fw Yassine Aloui 9 2 11
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
18 17 47 29 61 ROSTER TOTALS 18 15 50 30 57
1 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 1
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
2 3 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
21 20 47 29 70 T O T A L S 21 15 50 30 58
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Yassine Amara: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 44.86 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 28.51 (no red card)
Sw Gilbert Tchato: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 57.18 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 71.4 (no red card)
Df Eric Kompany: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 34.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.14 (no red card)
Df Tetsuo Hoshizawa: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 7.14 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 58.43 (no red card)
Df Johan Teulet: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 32.05 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.65 (no red card)
Mf Ludwig Troell: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 9.56 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 75.76 (no red card)
Mf Quentin Meunier: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 14.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 26.0 (no red card)
Fw Franco Almada: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 93.81 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 97.64 (no red card)
Fw Marek Grabara: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 88.2 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 21.44 (no red card)
Fw Percy Maguire: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 1.57 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 95.69 (no second yellow)
Fw Yvan Thijs: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 20.68 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 66.04 (no red card)
******* WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Mads Frost: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.46 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 68.29 (no red card)
Sw Nico Lehmann: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 67.45 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 8.16 (no red card)
Df Keita Hattori: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 79.73 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 42.61 (no red card)
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 45.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 11.27 (no red card)
Df Shoichi Morita: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 85.93 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 70.69 (no red card)
Mf Dmitry Soroka: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.68 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 27.0 (no red card)
Mf Aidan Maddison: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 19.24 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 10.18 (no red card)
Fw Djonno De boer: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 21.43 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 47.73 (no red card)
Fw Vitalik Semenyuk: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 64.62 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 95.49 (no red card)
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 11.43 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 19.97 (no red card)
Fw Yassine Aloui: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 58.17 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 17.72 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Southend United Team Hardness = 1
- Watford Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Yassine Amara: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 82.85 (no injury)
Sw Gilbert Tchato: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 73.36 (no injury)
Df Eric Kompany: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 56.53 (no injury)
Df Tetsuo Hoshizawa: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 81.84 (no injury)
Df Johan Teulet: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 71.96 (no injury)
Mf Ludwig Troell: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 22.16 (no injury)
Mf Quentin Meunier: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 66.3 (no injury)
Fw Franco Almada: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 71.25 (no injury)
Fw Marek Grabara: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 54.34 (no injury)
Fw Percy Maguire: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 43.66 (no injury)
Fw Yvan Thijs: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 90.5 (no injury)
******* WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Watford Team Hardness = 1
- Southend United Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Mads Frost: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 54.35 (no injury)
Sw Nico Lehmann: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 55.78 (no injury)
Df Keita Hattori: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 90.32 (no injury)
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 79.53 (no injury)
Df Shoichi Morita: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 35.25 (no injury)
Mf Dmitry Soroka: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 81.57 (no injury)
Mf Aidan Maddison: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 21.85 (no injury)
Fw Djonno De boer: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 21.61 (no injury)
Fw Vitalik Semenyuk: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 64.27 (no injury)
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 92.9 (no injury)
Fw Yassine Aloui: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 83.39 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Percy Maguire SL 16
- Defending Gk: Mads Frost SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 59 (no penalty kick)
******* SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Mykhailo Pavlyuk SL 17
- Defending Gk: Yassine Amara SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 32 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Southend United 21 20 47 29 70
Watford 21 15 50 30 58
Southend United Fw Attacks = 20 (70 - 50); result rounded up
Southend United Mf Attacks = 0 ((29 - 30) / 2; rounded up)
Southend United Df Attacks = 0 ((47 - 58) / 3; rounded up)
Southend United Total Attacks = 20
1: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 91 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 62.01 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 37 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 71.57 (Shot Saved by Gk)
5: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 18 (Shot Off Target)
6: Attack for Fw Marek Grabara
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 62 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target)
7: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 42 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
9: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 90 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 81.42 (Shot Saved by Gk)
11: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 87 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 23 (Shot Off Target)
12: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 76 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 96.51 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
14: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target)
15: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack)
16: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 18 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 94 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 14.42 (Shot Saved by Gk)
18: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 33 (Sw stopped attack)
19: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 86 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 44.75 (Shot Saved by Gk)
20: Attack for Fw Marek Grabara
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 61 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 0.99 (Shot Saved by Gk)
******* WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Watford 21 15 50 30 58
Southend United 21 20 47 29 70
Watford Fw Attacks = 11 (58 - 47); result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 1 ((30 - 29) / 2) ; result rounded up
Watford Df Attacks = 0 ((50 - 70) / 3; rounded up)
Watford Total Attacks = 12
1: Attack for Mf Dmitry Soroka
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 15.72 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 74 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 67 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 88.83 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
6: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 73 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 51.29 (Shot Saved by Gk)
8: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 11 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Vitalik Semenyuk
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack)
10: Attack for Fw Vitalik Semenyuk
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 40 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 56.38 (Shot Saved by Gk)
11: Attack for Fw Yassine Aloui
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 70% | Random number = 57 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
SOUTHEND UNITED 1 - WATFORD 1
Match Notes
JT deploying all five forwards or parking the bus — a genuine coin flip with that man. Colin Scott making the trip down from Lesmahagow for this tactical lottery. Should be illuminating.
~ Olmec Head Marcus ~ Jun 27 (Coventry City)
JT's lads scraping a draw away from home — when you field schoolboys and play five up front, a point isn't a disaster, it's arithmetic. Colin will take it too, quietly.
~ Olmec Head Marcus ~ Jul 4 (Coventry City)