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Weston-super-Mare AFC
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FA Shield Round 1
 
 
 
 
S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC                      LINCOLN CITY FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Valentyn Tymoshenko    14    2   16     Gk Steven Chapuisat       13    2   15
Sw Ronal Castro            6    2    8     Sw Woo Hyun-soo           13    2   15
Df Goronwy Wright         12    2   14     Df Emir Selmi             18    2   20
Df Hiroyuki Matsuda       11    1   12     Df Aldair Gallardo        10    2   12
Df Rory Kelly             10    1   11     Df Martin Paredes         10    2   12
Df Léon Velardi            8    2   10     Mf Fabio Luis             11    2   13
Mf Alberto Leao           14    2   16     Mf Hernán Sancho          10    1   11
Mf Andrej Kovac           12    2   14     Mf Marc Bürki             10    2   12
Mf Cesar Beto             10    2   12     Fw Seung-Hyeon Tae-yong   13    2   15
Fw Younes Regragui        13    2   15     Fw Thiago Araujo          10    2   12
Fw Sven Skog              16    2   18     Fw Simão DaSilva          10    1   11

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      16  8 47 42 33        ROSTER TOTALS      15 15 44 36 38    
       1  2  1  1  2          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  3  2  2       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      17 10 51 45 37         T O T A L S       15 15 44 36 38    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 7
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Valentyn Tymoshenko: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 75.25 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 32.98 (no red card)

Sw Ronal Castro: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 10.81 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 66.58 (no second yellow)

Df Goronwy Wright: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 73.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 71.29 (no red card)

Df Hiroyuki Matsuda: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 18.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 8.86 (no red card)

Df Rory Kelly: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 26.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 71.42 (no red card)

Df Léon Velardi: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 42.12 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 53.09 (no red card)

Mf Alberto Leao: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 79.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 23.05 (no red card)

Mf Andrej Kovac: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 64.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 56.72 (no red card)

Mf Cesar Beto: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 69.69 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 19.46 (no red card)

Fw Younes Regragui: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 74.89 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 71.76 (no red card)

Fw Sven Skog: Chance of booking = 15.0% | Random number = 43.07 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 2.5% | Random number = 55.78 (no red card)

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Steven Chapuisat: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 42.56 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.05 (no red card)

Sw Woo Hyun-soo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.66 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 8.24 (no red card)

Df Emir Selmi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.78 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.85 (no red card)

Df Aldair Gallardo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 97.73 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 14.28 (no red card)

Df Martin Paredes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.13 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 76.57 (no red card)

Mf Fabio Luis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.87 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 26.27 (no red card)

Mf Hernán Sancho: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.41 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 10.24 (no second yellow)

Mf Marc Bürki: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 23.44 (no red card)

Fw Seung-Hyeon Tae-yong: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 48.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.66 (no red card)

Fw Thiago Araujo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.67 (no red card)

Fw Simão DaSilva: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 14.73 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Weston-super-Mare AFC Team Hardness = 7
   - Lincoln City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.12%
Gk Valentyn Tymoshenko: Chance of injury = 2.12% | Random number = 25.53 (no injury) 
Sw Ronal Castro: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 68.3 (no injury) 
Df Goronwy Wright: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 18.81 (no injury) 
Df Hiroyuki Matsuda: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 40.08 (no injury) 
Df Rory Kelly: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 50.83 (no injury) 
Df Léon Velardi: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 47.1 (no injury) 
Mf Alberto Leao: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 73.54 (no injury) 
Mf Andrej Kovac: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 46.99 (no injury) 
Mf Cesar Beto: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 36.82 (no injury) 
Fw Younes Regragui: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 8.79 (no injury) 
Fw Sven Skog: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 85.9 (no injury) 

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Lincoln City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Weston-super-Mare AFC Team Hardness = 7
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 7.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 3.87%
Gk Steven Chapuisat: Chance of injury = 3.87% | Random number = 59.68 (no injury) 
Sw Woo Hyun-soo: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 93.38 (no injury) 
Df Emir Selmi: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 68.55 (no injury) 
Df Aldair Gallardo: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 28.66 (no injury) 
Df Martin Paredes: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 9.26 (no injury) 
Mf Fabio Luis: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 77.53 (no injury) 
Mf Hernán Sancho: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 31.67 (no injury) 
Mf Marc Bürki: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 50.79 (no injury) 
Fw Seung-Hyeon Tae-yong: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 93.28 (no injury) 
Fw Thiago Araujo: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 90.02 (no injury) 
Fw Simão DaSilva: Chance of injury = 7.75% | Random number = 68.27 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Sven Skog SL 16
   - Defending Gk: Steven Chapuisat SL 13

     intRndPk = 45
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 45 (no penalty kick)

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 7; (7 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Emir Selmi SL 18
   - Defending Gk: Valentyn Tymoshenko SL 14

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 32 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 18 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 74 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 86 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 16 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 7 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 2 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 8 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 24 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Weston-super-Mare AFC    17  10  51  45  37
  Lincoln City FC          15  15  44  36  38

Weston-super-Mare AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (37 - 44)
Weston-super-Mare AFC Mf Attacks = 5 ((45 - 36) / 2) ; result rounded up
Weston-super-Mare AFC Df Attacks = 5 ((51 - 38) / 3); result rounded up
Weston-super-Mare AFC Total Attacks = 10

1: Attack for Df Goronwy Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 52 (Sw stopped attack) 
2: Attack for Df Léon Velardi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Léon Velardi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Df Léon Velardi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 17 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Df Goronwy Wright
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 70 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 10 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Andrej Kovac
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Mf Andrej Kovac
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 77.82 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
8: Attack for Mf Alberto Leao
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
9: Attack for Mf Andrej Kovac
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 69 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 95 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 68.01 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
10: Attack for Mf Alberto Leao
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 60% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  LINCOLN CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Lincoln City FC          15  15  44  36  38
  Weston-super-Mare AFC    17  10  51  45  37

Lincoln City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (38 - 51)
Lincoln City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((36 - 45) / 2;  rounded up)
Lincoln City FC Df Attacks = 3 ((44 - 37) / 3); result rounded up
Lincoln City FC Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Df Martin Paredes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 31.86 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Emir Selmi
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 99 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 78.25% | Random number = 70.14 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
3: Attack for Df Martin Paredes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 50% | Random number = 68 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC 1  -  LINCOLN CITY FC 2
 
Match Notes
Lincoln away at Weston. Interesting test of resolve for both sides — one trying to prove they belong, the other trying to prove they still do.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/20 - 6:30 PM  
 
 
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