(H)
Southend United
Colin Scott
Weston-super-Mare AFC
Vick Hall
AP Cup Round 2
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
SOUTHEND UNITED WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Yassine Amara 16 2 18 Gk Valentyn Tymoshenko 14 2 16
Sw Gilbert Tchato 14 2 16 Df Goronwy Wright 12 1 13
Df Eric Kompany 13 1 14 Df Marek Murphy 8 2 10
Df Lars Koster 12 2 14 Df Amine Harit 6 2 8
Df Mario Egli 9 2 11 Mf Alberto Leao 14 1 15
Mf Quentin Meunier 10 2 12 Mf Andrej Kovac 12 1 13
Mf Leo Gaillot 7 2 9 Mf Cesar Beto 10 1 11
Fw Marek Grabara 13 2 15 Mf Denis Fellaini 9 2 11
Fw Percy Maguire 16 2 18 Mf Cadwaladr Harding 6 2 8
Fw Franco Almada 10 2 12 Fw Sven Skog 16 1 17
Fw Yvan Thijs 7 2 9 Fw Paolo Caccini 11 2 13
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
18 16 39 21 54 ROSTER TOTALS 16 0 31 58 30
1 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 1 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 2 0 8 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 7 0 0
=======================================================================
21 16 39 21 63 T O T A L S 19 0 46 58 30
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Yassine Amara: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 95.92 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 97.31 (no red card)
Sw Gilbert Tchato: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 76.76 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 47.87 (no red card)
Df Eric Kompany: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 23.38 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 82.72 (no red card)
Df Lars Koster: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 39.9 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 64.34 (no red card)
Df Mario Egli: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 87.18 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 44.64 (no red card)
Mf Quentin Meunier: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 91.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 76.71 (no red card)
Mf Leo Gaillot: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 95.02 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 36.99 (no red card)
Fw Marek Grabara: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 77.34 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 98.9 (no red card)
Fw Percy Maguire: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 85.06 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 2.76 (no red card)
Fw Franco Almada: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 82.35 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 27.09 (no red card)
Fw Yvan Thijs: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 98.48 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 15.15 (no red card)
******* WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 1
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Valentyn Tymoshenko: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 53.38 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 95.71 (no red card)
Df Goronwy Wright: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 81.32 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 73.59 (no red card)
Df Marek Murphy: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 46.09 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 4.36 (no red card)
Df Amine Harit: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 96.6 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 66.33 (no red card)
Mf Alberto Leao: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 68.38 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 63.42 (no red card)
Mf Andrej Kovac: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 57.55 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 93.31 (no red card)
Mf Cesar Beto: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 80.21 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 5.74 (no red card)
Mf Denis Fellaini: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 2.4 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 0.31 (SECOND YELLOW CARD - SENT OFF!!!)
Denis Fellaini new match skill level = 5
Denis Fellaini new match total level = 7
Mf Cadwaladr Harding: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 59.91 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 34.68 (no red card)
Fw Sven Skog: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 2.66 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 86.13 (no second yellow)
Fw Paolo Caccini: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 90.56 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 9.56 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Southend United Team Hardness = 1
- Weston-super-Mare AFC Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Yassine Amara: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 14.76 (no injury)
Sw Gilbert Tchato: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 57.02 (no injury)
Df Eric Kompany: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 74.29 (no injury)
Df Lars Koster: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 6.49 (no injury)
Df Mario Egli: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 12.29 (no injury)
Mf Quentin Meunier: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 49.47 (no injury)
Mf Leo Gaillot: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 61.71 (no injury)
Fw Marek Grabara: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 89.73 (no injury)
Fw Percy Maguire: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 66.9 (no injury)
Fw Franco Almada: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 86.99 (no injury)
Fw Yvan Thijs: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 43.23 (no injury)
******* WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Weston-super-Mare AFC Team Hardness = 1
- Southend United Team Hardness = 1
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.75%
Gk Valentyn Tymoshenko: Chance of injury = 1.75% | Random number = 55.63 (no injury)
Df Goronwy Wright: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 97.45 (no injury)
Df Marek Murphy: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 41.79 (no injury)
Df Amine Harit: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 24.16 (no injury)
Mf Alberto Leao: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 30.93 (no injury)
Mf Andrej Kovac: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 28.95 (no injury)
Mf Cesar Beto: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 3.64 (no injury)
Mf Denis Fellaini: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 99.67 (no injury)
Mf Cadwaladr Harding: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 34.48 (no injury)
Fw Sven Skog: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 26.71 (no injury)
Fw Paolo Caccini: Chance of injury = 3.5% | Random number = 41.75 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Percy Maguire SL 16
- Defending Gk: Valentyn Tymoshenko SL 14
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 98 (no penalty kick)
******* SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Sven Skog SL 16
- Defending Gk: Yassine Amara SL 16
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 26 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Southend United 21 16 39 21 63
Weston-super-Mare AFC 19 0 46 54 30
Weston-super-Mare AFC is using Offside Trap!
Southend United Fw Attacks = 9 (63 - 46) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Southend United Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 54) / 2; rounded up)
Southend United Df Attacks = 3 ((39 - 30) / 3); result rounded up
Southend United Total Attacks = 12
1: Attack for Df Mario Egli
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 50 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 30.39 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Df Lars Koster
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 2.5 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Df Eric Kompany
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 2 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 72.03 (Shot Saved by Gk)
6: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 78 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 28.49 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 86.84 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
8: Attack for Fw Marek Grabara
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target)
9: Attack for Fw Percy Maguire
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 83 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 4.53 (Shot Saved by Gk)
10: Attack for Fw Yvan Thijs
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 86.79 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
11: Attack for Fw Marek Grabara
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target)
12: Attack for Fw Franco Almada
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Weston-super-Mare AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 82.75% | Random number = 97.66 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
******* WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Weston-super-Mare AFC 19 0 46 54 30
Southend United 21 16 39 21 63
Weston-super-Mare AFC is Playing For A Draw!
Weston-super-Mare AFC Fw Attacks = 0 (30 - 39)
Weston-super-Mare AFC Mf Attacks = 8 ((54 - 21) / 2) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Weston-super-Mare AFC Df Attacks = 0 ((46 - 63) / 5; rounded up)
Weston-super-Mare AFC Total Attacks = 8
1: Attack for Mf Alberto Leao
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 13 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Mf Alberto Leao
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 7.79 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Mf Cesar Beto
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Mf Andrej Kovac
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 61 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Mf Cesar Beto
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 48 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Mf Alberto Leao
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Mf Andrej Kovac
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 90 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 21 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Mf Cesar Beto
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 30 (Sw stopped attack)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
SOUTHEND UNITED 3 - WESTON-SUPER-MARE AFC 0
Match Notes
The only two teams to gain 9 points in round 1 meet in round 2. Wow!
Colin (Southend United) 05/21 - 3:51 PM
Colin's got a home tie here. Weston making that journey won't fancy it. Could be a long afternoon for the visitors.
Olmec Head Ray (Blyth Spartans AFC) 05/22 - 6:30 PM
Colin Scott dragging himself to Roots Hall for this one. Weston will arrive organised, I expect, but organised rarely troubles a man who wins by accident as often as by design.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/23 - 6:31 PM
Yes how does this seeding work. Won all my AP Cup games and still get drawn away to such a top side too. sigh.
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 05/26 - 10:24 PM
I actually feel bad for Vicks draw here
Dave (Lewes FC) 05/27 - 6:03 PM
Let me translate what Dave means here: "I do not feel bad for Vick's draw here"...
Allan (Brentford FC) 05/27 - 10:43 PM
yes and Phil rubbing in the salt by choosing it for the prediction league
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 05/29 - 8:07 PM
Three goals, nothing conceded. Colin Scott finally remembered how football works. Weston made the trip for a very educational afternoon.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/30 - 6:30 PM
I think the away tactics were very good and I got lucky.
Good game Vick.
Good game Vick.
Colin (Southend United) 05/30 - 11:05 PM
well it was the season defining game for me, but alas my efforts were fruitless. Good luck in the rest of the cup!
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 06/03 - 12:27 PM