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Saturday, June 3rd, 2023 - 10:38:35 AM (gmt)
 
ball MSWL UNITED ① Season 44 // Landing
 
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Brighton & Hove Albion
Brian Beerman
 
Southend United
Colin Scott
 
 
League Round 8
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION                     SOUTHEND UNITED

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Alfie Symes            15    0   15     Gk Toby Brides            13    2   15
Df Théo Billard            1    2    3     Sw Diarmuid Conner        13    2   15
Df Curtis Barker          10    1   11     Df Dante Berggren         15    2   17
Df Patrick Kelly           7    2    9     Df Neo Lundström          12    2   14
Df Niklas Köhler           3    2    5     Df Søren Jørgensen         7    2    9
Mf Diogo Rocha            10    0   10     Df Bobby Moss              7    2    9
Mf Jack Marshall           6    2    8     Mf Martin Connolly        12    2   14
Fw Wallace Wilson         13    0   13     Mf Daniel Solis            7    2    9
Fw Ian Lee                 7    2    9     Mf Emil Kristoffersen      3    2    5
Fw Ahmed El Fassi          6    2    8     Fw Nikolai Morozov        13    2   15
Fw Elliot Wilkins          3    2    5     Fw Harry Brudenell         7    2    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      15  0 28 18 35        ROSTER TOTALS      15 15 49 28 24    
       1  1  0  0  0          HARDNESS          3  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  9  0  0       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  3  4  0  0    
=======================================================================
      16  1 37 18 35         T O T A L S       18 18 53 28 24    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 2
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Alfie Symes: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 86.04 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.125% | Random number = 10.89 (no red card)

Df Théo Billard: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 29.01 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 99.01 (no red card)

Df Curtis Barker: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 97.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 10.5 (no red card)

Df Patrick Kelly: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 60.65 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 24.91 (no red card)

Df Niklas Köhler: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 42.31 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 55.66 (no red card)

Mf Diogo Rocha: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 55.99 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 43.1 (no red card)

Mf Jack Marshall: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 31.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 55.1 (no red card)

Fw Wallace Wilson: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 79.32 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 0.77 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Wallace Wilson new match skill level =  7
      Wallace Wilson new match total level =  7

Fw Ian Lee: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 13.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 82.17 (no red card)

Fw Ahmed El Fassi: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 67.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 19.04 (no red card)

Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of booking = 9.0% | Random number = 48.58 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.5% | Random number = 3.86 (no red card)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 3
   - Gk   Hardness = 3

Gk Toby Brides: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 12.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.875% | Random number = 92.83 (no red card)

Sw Diarmuid Conner: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 9.26 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.87% | Random number = 3.84 (no second yellow)

Df Dante Berggren: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 89.08 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 80.78 (no red card)

Df Neo Lundström: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 3.73 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.87% | Random number = 98.18 (no second yellow)

Df Søren Jørgensen: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 93.33 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 15.56 (no red card)

Df Bobby Moss: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 33.09 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 48.77 (no red card)

Mf Martin Connolly: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 51.18 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 53.9 (no red card)

Mf Daniel Solis: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 14.37 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 28.03 (no red card)

Mf Emil Kristoffersen: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 29.97 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 69.96 (no red card)

Fw Nikolai Morozov: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 60.34 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 32.82 (no red card)

Fw Harry Brudenell: Chance of booking = 11.25% | Random number = 20.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.87% | Random number = 14.79 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 2
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 3
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 5.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.62%
Gk Alfie Symes: Chance of injury = 2.62% | Random number = 41.9 (no injury) 
Df Théo Billard: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 57.54 (no injury) 
Df Curtis Barker: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 65.4 (no injury) 
Df Patrick Kelly: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 16.07 (no injury) 
Df Niklas Köhler: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 16.64 (no injury) 
Mf Diogo Rocha: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 12.67 (no injury) 
Mf Jack Marshall: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 9.86 (no injury) 
Fw Wallace Wilson: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 3.13 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 4
      Wallace Wilson is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 3 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Wallace Wilson new match skill level =  4
      Wallace Wilson new match total level =  4
Fw Ian Lee: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 2.97 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 2
      Ian Lee is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 1 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Ian Lee new match skill level =  4
      Ian Lee new match total level =  6
Fw Ahmed El Fassi: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 50.71 (no injury) 
Fw Elliot Wilkins: Chance of injury = 5.25% | Random number = 94.07 (no injury) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Southend United Team Hardness = 3
   - Brighton & Hove Albion Team Hardness = 2
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 2.37%
Gk Toby Brides: Chance of injury = 2.37% | Random number = 17.39 (no injury) 
Sw Diarmuid Conner: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 96.95 (no injury) 
Df Dante Berggren: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 0.95 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Dante Berggren is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Dante Berggren new match skill level =  8
      Dante Berggren new match total level =  10
Df Neo Lundström: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 26.29 (no injury) 
Df Søren Jørgensen: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 73.61 (no injury) 
Df Bobby Moss: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 12.02 (no injury) 
Mf Martin Connolly: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 47.08 (no injury) 
Mf Daniel Solis: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 9.99 (no injury) 
Mf Emil Kristoffersen: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 4.46 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 0
      Emil Kristoffersen is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Fw Nikolai Morozov: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 24.9 (no injury) 
Fw Harry Brudenell: Chance of injury = 4.75% | Random number = 12.88 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 3; (3 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Curtis Barker SL 10
   - Defending Gk: Toby Brides SL 13

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 97 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 26 (no penalty kick)

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 2; (2 10% chances of yielding PKs)
   - PK Taker: Nikolai Morozov SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Alfie Symes SL 15

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 93 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 87 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Brighton & Hove Albion   16   0  37  18  23
  Southend United          18  18  46  28  24

Brighton & Hove Albion Fw Attacks = 0 (23 - 46)
Brighton & Hove Albion Mf Attacks = 0 ((18 - 28) / 2;  rounded up)
Brighton & Hove Albion Df Attacks = 3 ((37 - 24) / 5); result rounded up
Brighton & Hove Albion Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Df Patrick Kelly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 97.81 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
2: Attack for Df Patrick Kelly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 80.5% | Random number = 92.87 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
3: Attack for Df Patrick Kelly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 66% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 

*******  SOUTHEND UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Southend United          18  18  46  28  24
  Brighton & Hove Albion   16   0  37  18  23

Brighton & Hove Albion is using Offside Trap!
Southend United is Playing For A Draw!
Southend United Fw Attacks = 0 (24 - 37)
Southend United Mf Attacks = 5 ((28 - 18) / 2)  * 2.0 (OST Multiplier)  * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Southend United Df Attacks = 4 ((46 - 23) / 3) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Southend United Total Attacks = 9

1: Attack for Df Neo Lundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 56 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 64.07 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Søren Jørgensen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Df Bobby Moss
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 52 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 16.39 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
4: Attack for Df Neo Lundström
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 45.24 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
5: Attack for Mf Martin Connolly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target) 
6: Attack for Mf Emil Kristoffersen
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 57.45 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
7: Attack for Mf Daniel Solis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 79 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 11.61 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
8: Attack for Mf Daniel Solis
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 36 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 51.84 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Mf Martin Connolly
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Brighton & Hove Albion
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 65 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 76.0% | Random number = 76.2 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION 2  -  SOUTHEND UNITED 1
 
Match Notes
This will not end well
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 04/29 - 7:48 PM
Happy and a very unexpected result.
Brian (Brighton & Hove Albion) 05/06 - 6:12 PM
Some session for strange results for SU
Colin (Southend United) 05/06 - 6:55 PM
 
 
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