(H)
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
Brentford FC
Allan Sellers
League Round 4
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
CARLISLE UNITED BRENTFORD FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Dani Cassio 12 1 13 Gk Francis Dijkstra 2 2 4
Sw Philippe Manago 13 0 13 Sw Christian Hennessey 9 2 11
Df Marco Sa 13 0 13 Df Gildardo Aguilar 6 2 8
Df Nicola Panucci 12 0 12 Df Mats Krafth 6 2 8
Df Eirwyn Davey 11 0 11 Df Igor Bremer 3 2 5
Mf Marco D'amato 13 0 13 Mf Muhammed Kwadwo 11 1 12
Mf Minato Morishima 10 1 11 Mf Luke Phillips 6 2 8
Fw Jordan Pérez 15 -1 14 Mf Elfaroui El mostafa 3 2 5
Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue 12 1 13 Fw Ye-jun Ji 10 2 12
Fw Yannick Vanaken 12 0 12 Fw Ben Hamadou 6 2 8
Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek 11 1 12 Fw John Gyasi 3 2 5
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
13 13 36 24 51 ROSTER TOTALS 4 11 21 25 25
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 4 5 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
13 13 36 28 56 T O T A L S 4 11 21 25 25
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Dani Cassio: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.67 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 87.27 (no red card)
Sw Philippe Manago: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 46.3 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.46 (no red card)
Df Marco Sa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 50.78 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.62 (no red card)
Df Nicola Panucci: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.06 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.05 (no red card)
Df Eirwyn Davey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.81 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.17 (no red card)
Mf Marco D'amato: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.75 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 42.67 (no red card)
Mf Minato Morishima: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.96 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 97.8 (no red card)
Fw Jordan Pérez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 71.13 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 90.31 (no red card)
Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 85.73 (no red card)
Fw Yannick Vanaken: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.89 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 84.62 (no red card)
Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.43 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 51.83 (no red card)
******* BRENTFORD FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Francis Dijkstra: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.89 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 76.19 (no red card)
Sw Christian Hennessey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.77 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.16 (no red card)
Df Gildardo Aguilar: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.47 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 62.09 (no red card)
Df Mats Krafth: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.26 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 95.26 (no red card)
Df Igor Bremer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 93.4 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.13 (no red card)
Mf Muhammed Kwadwo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.48 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 82.34 (no red card)
Mf Luke Phillips: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.96 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 48.22 (no red card)
Mf Elfaroui El mostafa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 0.61 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.45 (no second yellow)
Fw Ye-jun Ji: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 80.78 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 57.78 (no red card)
Fw Ben Hamadou: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.62 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.96 (no red card)
Fw John Gyasi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.69 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.58 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
- Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Dani Cassio: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 1.48 (no injury)
Sw Philippe Manago: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.31 (no injury)
Df Marco Sa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.79 (no injury)
Df Nicola Panucci: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.55 (no injury)
Df Eirwyn Davey: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 25.19 (no injury)
Mf Marco D'amato: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 3.94 (no injury)
Mf Minato Morishima: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.15 (no injury)
Fw Jordan Pérez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 48.42 (no injury)
Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 12.22 (no injury)
Fw Yannick Vanaken: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.47 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 2
Yannick Vanaken is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 1 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
Yannick Vanaken new match skill level = 6
Yannick Vanaken new match total level = 6
Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 78.9 (no injury)
******* BRENTFORD FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Brentford FC Team Hardness = 0
- Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Francis Dijkstra: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 70.96 (no injury)
Sw Christian Hennessey: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 24.52 (no injury)
Df Gildardo Aguilar: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 12.43 (no injury)
Df Mats Krafth: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 34.02 (no injury)
Df Igor Bremer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 12.03 (no injury)
Mf Muhammed Kwadwo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 83.85 (no injury)
Mf Luke Phillips: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 51.8 (no injury)
Mf Elfaroui El mostafa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.66 (no injury)
Fw Ye-jun Ji: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 98.29 (no injury)
Fw Ben Hamadou: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 37.13 (no injury)
Fw John Gyasi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.02 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* BRENTFORD FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Jordan Pérez SL 15
- Defending Gk: Francis Dijkstra SL 2
intRndPk = 95
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 95 (no penalty kick)
******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Muhammed Kwadwo SL 11
- Defending Gk: Dani Cassio SL 12
intRndPk = 11
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 11 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Carlisle United 13 13 36 28 50
Brentford FC 4 11 21 25 25
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 29 (50 - 21); result rounded up
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 2 ((28 - 25) / 2) ; result rounded up
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 4 ((36 - 25) / 3); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 35
1: Attack for Df Nicola Panucci
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 95 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 25 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Df Eirwyn Davey
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Df Eirwyn Davey
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 47 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 94.73 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
4: Attack for Df Nicola Panucci
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 66 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 38 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 6.68 (Shot Saved by Gk)
5: Attack for Mf Marco D'amato
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 36 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Mf Minato Morishima
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
7: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 63 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 17 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 75 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 93.57 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
10: Attack for Fw Yannick Vanaken
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 97 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 63 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 75.08 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
11: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 40 (Shot Off Target)
12: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 89 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 45% | Random number = 86 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 96.49 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
13: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 50% | Random number = 94 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 81.37 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
15: Attack for Fw Yannick Vanaken
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 53 (Shot Off Target)
16: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 55% | Random number = 82 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 80.93 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
17: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 60% | Random number = 49 (Shot Off Target)
18: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 98 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 60% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target)
19: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 10 (Sw stopped attack)
20: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 60% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 93.26 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
21: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
22: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 2 (Sw stopped attack)
23: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 87 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 8.39 (Shot Saved by Gk)
24: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 59 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 96 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 39.2 (Shot Saved by Gk)
25: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 58 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 60 (Shot Off Target)
26: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 14 (Sw stopped attack)
27: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 81 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 97 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 25.14 (Shot Saved by Gk)
28: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target)
29: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 44 (Sw stopped attack)
30: Attack for Fw Yannick Vanaken
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 57 (Shot Off Target)
31: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 65 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 65% | Random number = 84 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 54.22 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
32: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 22 (Sw stopped attack)
33: Attack for Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 70% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 49.0% | Random number = 66.14 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
34: Attack for Fw Jordan Pérez
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 75% | Random number = 49 (Shot Off Target)
35: Attack for Fw Emmanuel Krzynówek
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 52% | Random number = 43 (Sw stopped attack)
******* BRENTFORD FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Brentford FC 4 11 21 25 25
Carlisle United 13 13 36 28 50
Brentford FC Fw Attacks = 0 (25 - 36)
Brentford FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((25 - 28) / 2; rounded up)
Brentford FC Df Attacks = 0 ((21 - 50) / 3; rounded up)
Brentford FC Total Attacks = 0
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
CARLISLE UNITED 9 - BRENTFORD FC 0
Match Notes
Carlisle at home, Sellers on the road. The numbers suggest this should be comfortable for Brentford — but "should be" is doing a lot of heavy lifting today.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/17 - 12:09 AM
Ordinarily yes, Olmec Head Marcus. But have you SEEN the Brentford GK situation?
Ian (Preston North End FC) 05/17 - 11:02 PM
Wow! A thorough dismantling of our poor rebuilding Bees. Congratulations Dave!
Allan (Brentford FC) 05/23 - 8:01 PM
Ouch.
Ian (Preston North End FC) 05/23 - 8:15 PM