Cardiff are going to bully Port Vale through that middle third — their forward line has got too much going on for Vale to handle all afternoon. Blanco and Ndi will give that Vale backline a torrid time, and I reckon one of them nicks it before the hour mark. Cardiff at home, Cardiff fired up — job done, nothing fancy needed.

Cardiff's home advantage here is doing a lot of the heavy lifting, but their forward depth — Ndi and Blanco pressing in behind — will make life genuinely uncomfortable for a Port Vale backline that looks solid on paper but hasn't got the sweeper cover to deal with sustained pressure. Vale's attack simply doesn't have the volume to trouble a Cardiff side playing in front of their own crowd.