Home Park's a fortress when Plymouth get it going, and with that Groundsman edge in attack, Watford's backline is in for a rough afternoon. Minamino's been solid as a rock at the back and I don't fancy Watford's forwards getting much joy there. We edge it — narrow, gritty, classic Argyle.

Plymouth carry a respectable home advantage and their forward threat is marginally superior, but Watford's defensive solidity — anchored by Pavlyuk and Hattori — should blunt the worst of it. The interesting subplot here is in the sweeper zone, where Trabelsi's presence for Plymouth is largely cancelled out by De Boer's ability to unsettle any backline on the counter. A draw feels inevitable when neither side has the midfield creativity to truly break the deadlock.