(H)
Nottingham Forest
Steve Turner
Watford
James Tucker
League Round 17
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
NOTTINGHAM FOREST WATFORD
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Jonathan Kome 16 2 18 Gk Mads Frost 16 2 18
Sw Thiago Boniek 12 2 14 Sw Nico Lehmann 14 2 16
Df Ibra Gueye 15 2 17 Df Keita Hattori 15 2 17
Df Svend Kragh 13 2 15 Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk 18 2 20
Df Mbaye Dieng 16 2 18 Df Shoichi Morita 12 2 14
Mf Marwan Sforza 10 2 12 Mf Dmitry Soroka 16 2 18
Mf Paul Simons 9 2 11 Mf Aidan Maddison 12 1 13
Fw Rico Santambrogio 15 2 17 Fw Djonno De boer 16 2 18
Fw Ederson Fabinho 15 2 17 Fw Vitalik Semenyuk 15 0 15
Fw Cadwallader Gwilt 12 2 14 Fw Valerio Paredes 12 2 14
Fw Ghaith Abid 10 2 12 Fw Trefor Lloyd 10 2 12
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
18 14 50 23 60 ROSTER TOTALS 18 16 51 31 59
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 9 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
3 3 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 3 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
=======================================================================
21 17 50 23 69 T O T A L S 21 16 51 31 59
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Jonathan Kome: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 78.79 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 64.62 (no red card)
Sw Thiago Boniek: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 38.12 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.47 (no red card)
Df Ibra Gueye: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.14 (no red card)
Df Svend Kragh: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.53 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 36.94 (no second yellow)
Df Mbaye Dieng: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 31.52 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 2.69 (no red card)
Mf Marwan Sforza: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.42 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.35 (no red card)
Mf Paul Simons: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 59.35 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.17 (no red card)
Fw Rico Santambrogio: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 3.83 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.88 (no second yellow)
Fw Ederson Fabinho: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 60.23 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.03 (no red card)
Fw Cadwallader Gwilt: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.12 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 68.62 (no red card)
Fw Ghaith Abid: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 75.76 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.84 (no red card)
******* WATFORD YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Mads Frost: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 1.23 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 39.35 (no red card)
Sw Nico Lehmann: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 7.87 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 27.75 (no red card)
Df Keita Hattori: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 83.16 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 9.26 (no red card)
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.37 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.57 (no red card)
Df Shoichi Morita: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 52.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 43.06 (no red card)
Mf Dmitry Soroka: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.71 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.08 (no red card)
Mf Aidan Maddison: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.82 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 36.56 (no red card)
Fw Djonno De boer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.14 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 87.32 (no red card)
Fw Vitalik Semenyuk: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.83 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 25.09 (no red card)
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.03 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 4.2 (no red card)
Fw Trefor Lloyd: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 96.45 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 58.61 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
- Watford Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Jonathan Kome: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 93.38 (no injury)
Sw Thiago Boniek: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.59 (no injury)
Df Ibra Gueye: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.76 (no injury)
Df Svend Kragh: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 5.73 (no injury)
Df Mbaye Dieng: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 70.15 (no injury)
Mf Marwan Sforza: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 15.04 (no injury)
Mf Paul Simons: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 59.7 (no injury)
Fw Rico Santambrogio: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 12.86 (no injury)
Fw Ederson Fabinho: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 87.16 (no injury)
Fw Cadwallader Gwilt: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 67.25 (no injury)
Fw Ghaith Abid: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 32.89 (no injury)
******* WATFORD CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Watford Team Hardness = 0
- Nottingham Forest Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Mads Frost: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 71.26 (no injury)
Sw Nico Lehmann: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 21.32 (no injury)
Df Keita Hattori: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 71.96 (no injury)
Df Mykhailo Pavlyuk: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 86.39 (no injury)
Df Shoichi Morita: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.67 (no injury)
Mf Dmitry Soroka: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 15.25 (no injury)
Mf Aidan Maddison: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.56 (no injury)
Fw Djonno De boer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.0 (no injury)
Fw Vitalik Semenyuk: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 17.11 (no injury)
Fw Valerio Paredes: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 36.86 (no injury)
Fw Trefor Lloyd: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.15 (no injury)
============================================================================
============================================================================
P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* WATFORD CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Mbaye Dieng SL 16
- Defending Gk: Mads Frost SL 16
intRndPk = 30
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 30 (no penalty kick)
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Mykhailo Pavlyuk SL 18
- Defending Gk: Jonathan Kome SL 16
intRndPk = 78
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 78 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* NOTTINGHAM FOREST ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Nottingham Forest 21 17 50 23 69
Watford 21 16 51 31 59
Nottingham Forest Fw Attacks = 18 (69 - 51); result rounded up
Nottingham Forest Mf Attacks = 0 ((23 - 31) / 2; rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Df Attacks = 0 ((50 - 59) / 3; rounded up)
Nottingham Forest Total Attacks = 18
1: Attack for Fw Ghaith Abid
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Fw Cadwallader Gwilt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 45 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Fw Rico Santambrogio
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 96 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 62 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 85.97 (Shot Saved by Gk)
4: Attack for Fw Cadwallader Gwilt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 12 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw Ghaith Abid
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 49 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Ederson Fabinho
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 98 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 55.49 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Cadwallader Gwilt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 40 (Sw stopped attack)
8: Attack for Fw Rico Santambrogio
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Cadwallader Gwilt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 92 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 45 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 96.02 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
10: Attack for Fw Rico Santambrogio
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
11: Attack for Fw Ederson Fabinho
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 46 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Ederson Fabinho
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 51 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Ederson Fabinho
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 15 (Sw stopped attack)
14: Attack for Fw Cadwallader Gwilt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 29 (Sw stopped attack)
15: Attack for Fw Cadwallader Gwilt
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack)
16: Attack for Fw Rico Santambrogio
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack)
17: Attack for Fw Rico Santambrogio
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 55 (Sw stopped attack)
18: Attack for Fw Rico Santambrogio
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 56 (Sw stopped attack)
******* WATFORD ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Watford 21 16 51 31 59
Nottingham Forest 21 17 50 23 69
Watford Fw Attacks = 9 (59 - 50); result rounded up
Watford Mf Attacks = 4 ((31 - 23) / 2) ; result rounded up
Watford Df Attacks = 0 ((51 - 69) / 3; rounded up)
Watford Total Attacks = 13
1: Attack for Mf Dmitry Soroka
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 19 (Sw stopped attack)
2: Attack for Mf Aidan Maddison
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 85 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 9 (Shot Off Target)
3: Attack for Mf Aidan Maddison
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 23 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Mf Aidan Maddison
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 8 (Sw stopped attack)
5: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 63 (Sw stopped attack)
6: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 79 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 59 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 63.79 (Shot Saved by Gk)
7: Attack for Fw Vitalik Semenyuk
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 32 (Shot Off Target)
8: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 25 (Sw stopped attack)
9: Attack for Fw Vitalik Semenyuk
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 73 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 89 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 28.97 (Shot Saved by Gk)
10: Attack for Fw Trefor Lloyd
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 91 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 87.25% | Random number = 53.05 (Shot Saved by Gk)
11: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 9 (Sw stopped attack)
12: Attack for Fw Valerio Paredes
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 7 (Sw stopped attack)
13: Attack for Fw Djonno De boer
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 64% | Random number = 71 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 19 (Shot Off Target)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
NOTTINGHAM FOREST 1 - WATFORD 0
Match Notes
Olmec Steve vs JT — two blokes who'll throw everything at it and worry about the shape later. Forest at home gives Turner the edge but Tucker's pulled surprises before. Lively one this.
~ Olmec Head Ray ~ Jul 4 (Blyth Spartans AFC)
This is a must-win game James if you want to win the Div 1 championship this year!!
~ Abe ~ Jul 6 (Leeds United)
Olmec Steve nicks it 1-0. JT's lot came down from St Albans and left with nowt. That rivalry's one-sided right now.
~ Olmec Head Ray ~ Jul 11 (Blyth Spartans AFC)
Defeat here against Forest costs us the title. And Forest's 7 nil defeat to Tranmere...
~ James ~ Jul 11 (Watford)
That 7-0 loss came after two -5 injuries to my SW and FW so I was already in damage control - and we did beat them 1-0 later in the season.
~ Steve ~ Jul 12 (Nottingham Forest)
My 4-0 loss to Tranmere was also critical
~ James ~ Jul 13 (Watford)
Hang on I won that 4-0. Should have been much more!
~ James ~ Jul 13 (Watford)
Wow Watford needed a draw here only to win the division!!
~ Abe ~ Jul 15 (Leeds United)