Northampton are all over Cardiff in the final third — Tahiri up front is going to cause havoc all afternoon against a defence that looks soft as butter. Cardiff's attacking threat is almost non-existent away from home, and Szczesny won't break a sweat in that goal. Tight win, three points, job done — and nobody will give Northampton the credit they deserve.

Northampton's forward line is operating at a different weight class here — Cardiff's defensive setup simply isn't equipped to contain that kind of pressure across 90 minutes, and it shows in the territorial dominance we're expecting. Fabrice Ndi might cause a moment or two of concern up top for Cardiff, but Szczesny between the sticks looks comfortable enough to make it a quiet afternoon. One goal wins it, and Northampton don't need any more than that.