(H)
Swansea City AFC
Roy Rolsten
Bristol City FC
Jason Halpin
League Round 3
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
SWANSEA CITY AFC BRISTOL CITY FC
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Pathé Ndong 12 1 13 Gk Alberto Flores 14 1 15
Df Miguel de la Cruz 13 1 14 Df Eugene Goodwin 13 0 13
Df Jordan Cummings 12 0 12 Df Martin Rodríguez 13 0 13
Df Enrique Masis 10 0 10 Df Cadwaladr Lewis 10 0 10
Df Munir Hamdallah 5 2 7 Df Yahya Cheddira 6 2 8
Mf Walid Sellimi 12 0 12 Mf Efe Akpan 13 -1 12
Mf Mikkel Hedegaard 11 0 11 Mf Isaac Juhlin 11 1 12
Fw Renato Cabanas 13 2 15 Mf Thomas Jacobs 6 2 8
Fw Gerry Maclaren 16 2 18 Fw Gavin Wright 17 0 17
Fw Yeltsin Venegas 12 0 12 Fw Ulf Helander 13 0 13
Fw Michaël Van der heijden 9 0 9 Fw José Oliveira 6 2 8
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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13 0 43 23 54 ROSTER TOTALS 15 0 44 32 38
0 0 0 0 0 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 2 5 2 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 7 0 0
=======================================================================
13 0 45 28 56 T O T A L S 15 0 51 32 38
============================================================================
============================================================================
B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 55.33 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 9.73 (no red card)
Df Miguel de la Cruz: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.56 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 60.7 (no red card)
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 37.07 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.42 (no red card)
Df Enrique Masis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.7 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 29.59 (no red card)
Df Munir Hamdallah: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 66.02 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.34 (no red card)
Mf Walid Sellimi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.67 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.02 (no red card)
Mf Mikkel Hedegaard: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.99 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.42 (no red card)
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 61.15 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.6 (no red card)
Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 11.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.32 (no red card)
Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.97 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 56.74 (no red card)
Fw Michaël Van der heijden: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 41.92 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 57.38 (no red card)
******* BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.54 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 29.36 (no red card)
Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 95.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.06 (no red card)
Df Martin Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.79 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.55 (no red card)
Df Cadwaladr Lewis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 91.85 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.8 (no red card)
Df Yahya Cheddira: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 23.69 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 3.72 (no red card)
Mf Efe Akpan: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 51.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 54.71 (no red card)
Mf Isaac Juhlin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.56 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 44.47 (no red card)
Mf Thomas Jacobs: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 28.21 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 70.23 (no red card)
Fw Gavin Wright: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.05 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 72.02 (no red card)
Fw Ulf Helander: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 70.11 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 16.48 (no red card)
Fw José Oliveira: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 81.1 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 34.24 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
- Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Pathé Ndong: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 17.04 (no injury)
Df Miguel de la Cruz: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.44 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 0
Miguel de la Cruz is being assisted by the Physio and appears to be just fine.
Df Jordan Cummings: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 96.03 (no injury)
Df Enrique Masis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 27.41 (no injury)
Df Munir Hamdallah: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.12 (no injury)
Mf Walid Sellimi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 74.31 (no injury)
Mf Mikkel Hedegaard: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.64 (no injury)
Fw Renato Cabanas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 44.58 (no injury)
Fw Gerry Maclaren: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 81.75 (no injury)
Fw Yeltsin Venegas: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 40.35 (no injury)
Fw Michaël Van der heijden: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 46.76 (no injury)
******* BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
- Swansea City AFC Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 69.42 (no injury)
Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 53.79 (no injury)
Df Martin Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 92.93 (no injury)
Df Cadwaladr Lewis: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 76.41 (no injury)
Df Yahya Cheddira: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 22.98 (no injury)
Mf Efe Akpan: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 89.03 (no injury)
Mf Isaac Juhlin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 49.02 (no injury)
Mf Thomas Jacobs: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.67 (no injury)
Fw Gavin Wright: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 99.57 (no injury)
Fw Ulf Helander: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 68.11 (no injury)
Fw José Oliveira: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 0.95 (INJURED!)
Targeted fitness lost = 3
José Oliveira is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
José Oliveira new match skill level = 3
José Oliveira new match total level = 5
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Gerry Maclaren SL 16
- Defending Gk: Alberto Flores SL 14
intRndPk = 96
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 96 (no penalty kick)
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Gavin Wright SL 17
- Defending Gk: Pathé Ndong SL 12
intRndPk = 4
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 4 (PENALTY KICK!)
Chance of scoring = 94% | Random number = 91 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* SWANSEA CITY AFC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Swansea City AFC 13 0 45 28 56
Bristol City FC 15 0 51 32 35
Bristol City FC is using Offside Trap!
Swansea City AFC Fw Attacks = 3 (56 - 51) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Mf Attacks = 0 ((28 - 32) / 2; rounded up)
Swansea City AFC Df Attacks = 2 ((45 - 35) / 5); result rounded up
Swansea City AFC Total Attacks = 5
1: Attack for Df Enrique Masis
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 70 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 29.83 (Shot Saved by Gk)
2: Attack for Df Jordan Cummings
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 44 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 3.27 (Shot Saved by Gk)
3: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 13 (Shot Off Target)
4: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 28 (Shot Off Target)
5: Attack for Fw Gerry Maclaren
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 61 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 28.75 (Shot Saved by Gk)
******* BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Bristol City FC 15 0 51 32 35
Swansea City AFC 13 0 45 28 56
Bristol City FC is Playing For A Draw!
Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (35 - 45)
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((32 - 28) / 2) * 0.5 (Play For Draw Multiplier); result rounded up
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((51 - 56) / 5; rounded up)
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 1
1: Attack for Mf Efe Akpan
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Swansea City AFC
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 31 (Shot Off Target)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
SWANSEA CITY AFC 0 - BRISTOL CITY FC 1
Match Notes
Strange to get so many votes in the Prediction League when we haven't won at Swansea in ages.
Jason (Bristol City FC) 06/07 - 12:33 AM
That's incredible luck. Apologies Roy.
Jason (Bristol City FC) 06/07 - 6:16 PM