(H)
Coventry City
Olmec Head Marcus
Carlisle United
Dave Gittins
FA Cup Round 2
Create NMR Lineup
S T A R T I N G L I N E U P S
COVENTRY CITY CARLISLE UNITED
Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL Ps Player Name SL FIT LVL
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Gk Kyle Godwin 10 0 10 Gk Dani Cassio 12 1 13
Df Djibril Édouard 13 -1 12 Sw Philippe Manago 13 0 13
Df Malcolm Pickford 10 -1 9 Df Marco Sa 13 0 13
Df Alex Ganiyu 8 0 8 Df Nicola Panucci 12 0 12
Df Ronnie Maddison 8 2 10 Df Kyria Brozovic 6 2 8
Df Seydou Sonko 6 1 7 Mf Marco D'amato 13 0 13
Mf Asbjorn Mathiasen 11 -1 10 Mf Ousmane Laforest 6 2 8
Mf Aeron Moore 7 -1 6 Fw Jordan Pérez 15 -1 14
Mf Cathal Holland 7 2 9 Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue 12 1 13
Fw Boško Levchenko 12 -1 11 Fw Yannick Vanaken 12 0 12
Fw Adrian Fullkrug 10 -1 9 Fw Agustin Martinez 6 2 8
Gk Sw Df Mf Fw A R E A T O T A L S Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
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10 0 46 25 20 ROSTER TOTALS 13 13 33 21 47
1 2 2 2 1 HARDNESS 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 3 2 2 HOME ADVANTAGE 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS 2 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 PLAY FOR DRAW 0 0 0 0 0
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11 2 51 29 23 T O T A L S 15 13 33 21 47
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B O O K I N G S
Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card. The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn. If the
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card
chance then the player is sent off. Note that the chances are as follows:
- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))
If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card. Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.
******* COVENTRY CITY YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 8
- Gk Hardness = 1
Gk Kyle Godwin: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 52.06 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 85.65 (no red card)
Df Djibril Édouard: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 99.17 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 81.22 (no red card)
Df Malcolm Pickford: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 98.25 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 32.18 (no red card)
Df Alex Ganiyu: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 98.11 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 90.36 (no red card)
Df Ronnie Maddison: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 72.13 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 94.75 (no red card)
Df Seydou Sonko: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 63.28 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 77.37 (no red card)
Mf Asbjorn Mathiasen: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 41.49 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 8.21 (no red card)
Mf Aeron Moore: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 24.18 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 0.92 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
Aeron Moore new match skill level = 4
Aeron Moore new match total level = 3
Mf Cathal Holland: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 14.69 (BOOKED!)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 20.06 (no second yellow)
Fw Boško Levchenko: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 95.16 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 28.32 (no red card)
Fw Adrian Fullkrug: Chance of booking = 16.5% | Random number = 27.27 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 2.75% | Random number = 61.05 (no red card)
******* CARLISLE UNITED YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
- Team Hardness = 0
- Gk Hardness = 0
Gk Dani Cassio: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 24.99 (no booking)
Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 59.67 (no red card)
Sw Philippe Manago: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 21.3 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 15.09 (no red card)
Df Marco Sa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 39.69 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 8.09 (no red card)
Df Nicola Panucci: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.33 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 7.97 (no red card)
Df Kyria Brozovic: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 45.63 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 12.16 (no red card)
Mf Marco D'amato: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.91 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 65.22 (no red card)
Mf Ousmane Laforest: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 99.13 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 52.32 (no red card)
Fw Jordan Pérez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.27 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 53.49 (no red card)
Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 77.38 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 5.88 (no red card)
Fw Yannick Vanaken: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 82.38 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 32.97 (no red card)
Fw Agustin Martinez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.9 (no booking)
Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 37.64 (no red card)
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I N J U R I E S
A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured.
For each player the chance of injury is:
((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.
The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.
Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost.
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.
******* COVENTRY CITY CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Coventry City Team Hardness = 8
- Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 4.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 2.25%
Gk Kyle Godwin: Chance of injury = 2.25% | Random number = 79.08 (no injury)
Df Djibril Édouard: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 66.81 (no injury)
Df Malcolm Pickford: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 11.02 (no injury)
Df Alex Ganiyu: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 48.8 (no injury)
Df Ronnie Maddison: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 8.35 (no injury)
Df Seydou Sonko: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 77.07 (no injury)
Mf Asbjorn Mathiasen: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 55.59 (no injury)
Mf Aeron Moore: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 32.06 (no injury)
Mf Cathal Holland: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 76.4 (no injury)
Fw Boško Levchenko: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 14.61 (no injury)
Fw Adrian Fullkrug: Chance of injury = 4.5% | Random number = 64.54 (no injury)
******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
- Carlisle United Team Hardness = 0
- Coventry City Team Hardness = 8
- All (except Gk) chance of injury = 8.5%
- Gk chance of injury = 4.25%
Gk Dani Cassio: Chance of injury = 4.25% | Random number = 75.21 (no injury)
Sw Philippe Manago: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 56.38 (no injury)
Df Marco Sa: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 24.39 (no injury)
Df Nicola Panucci: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 42.27 (no injury)
Df Kyria Brozovic: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 87.43 (no injury)
Mf Marco D'amato: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 16.98 (no injury)
Mf Ousmane Laforest: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 60.74 (no injury)
Fw Jordan Pérez: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 17.44 (no injury)
Fw Abdou Karim Mbengue: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 59.57 (no injury)
Fw Yannick Vanaken: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 44.9 (no injury)
Fw Agustin Martinez: Chance of injury = 8.5% | Random number = 71.37 (no injury)
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P E N A L T Y K I C K S
There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance.
The chance of a penalty being scored is:
50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill) % (to a maximum 95%)
******* CARLISLE UNITED CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
- PK Taker: Djibril Édouard SL 13
- Defending Gk: Dani Cassio SL 12
intRndPk = 96
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 96 (no penalty kick)
******* COVENTRY CITY CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
- Team Hardness: 8; (8 10% chances of yielding PKs)
- PK Taker: Jordan Pérez SL 15
- Defending Gk: Kyle Godwin SL 10
1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 18 (no penalty kick)
2: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 20 (no penalty kick)
3: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 18 (no penalty kick)
4: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 32 (no penalty kick)
5: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 98 (no penalty kick)
6: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 94 (no penalty kick)
7: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 85 (no penalty kick)
8: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 91 (no penalty kick)
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A T T A C K I N G C H A N C E S & S H O T S
(i) If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total,
then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
Note: A Sw does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league!
(ii) The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
the difference.
(iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then
team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one
third of the difference. All fractions of attacks are rounded up,
and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many
produce shots, then goals:
(iv) Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!). For each attack,
there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
30 + (Sw level x 2) %
(eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the
Sw become shots.
(v) Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)
(vi) Finally, on-target shots come up against the Gk. This is similar to
the Sw test, but the percentage is:
40 + (Gk level x 2.25) %
Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.
A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw,
Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved
(round up fractions).
******* COVENTRY CITY ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Coventry City 11 0 51 26 23
Carlisle United 15 13 33 21 47
Coventry City Fw Attacks = 0 (23 - 33)
Coventry City Mf Attacks = 3 ((26 - 21) / 2) ; result rounded up
Coventry City Df Attacks = 1 ((51 - 47) / 5); result rounded up
Coventry City Total Attacks = 4
1: Attack for Df Ronnie Maddison
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 80 (Sw did not stop attack!!)
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 1 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Mf Asbjorn Mathiasen
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
3: Attack for Mf Cathal Holland
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 34 (Sw stopped attack)
4: Attack for Mf Asbjorn Mathiasen
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 56% | Random number = 32 (Sw stopped attack)
******* CARLISLE UNITED ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
AREA TOTALS GK Sw Df Mf Fw
-------------------------------------------
Carlisle United 15 13 33 21 47
Coventry City 11 0 51 26 23
Carlisle United Fw Attacks = 0 (47 - 51)
Carlisle United Mf Attacks = 0 ((21 - 26) / 2; rounded up)
Carlisle United Df Attacks = 4 ((33 - 23) / 3); result rounded up
Carlisle United Total Attacks = 4
1: Attack for Df Marco Sa
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Coventry City
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 20 (Shot Off Target)
2: Attack for Df Nicola Panucci
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Coventry City
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 55 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 82.05 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
3: Attack for Df Marco Sa
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Coventry City
Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 58 (Shot On Target)
Chance of Gk Save = 64.75% | Random number = 92.41 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!)
4: Attack for Df Nicola Panucci
Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Coventry City
Chance of Shot Off Target = 40% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target)
===============================================
F I N A L S C O R E
COVENTRY CITY 0 - CARLISLE UNITED 2
Match Notes
Carlisle visit on cup day. We've prepared accordingly, which is more than can be said for most of our opponents.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/17 - 12:08 AM
Up the Sky Blues
Graham (Cardiff City FC) 05/22 - 2:19 PM
Carlisle at home in the cup. We've seen the data, we've done the work. Respect the occasion, control the game.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/22 - 6:30 PM
0-2 at home. Cup football has a habit of exposing complacency more efficiently than any analyst. We'll review the data quietly.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/23 - 6:30 PM
Good to see that we did the talking on the pitch rather than wittering on about data
Dave (Carlisle United) 05/24 - 6:15 PM
Carlisle played well. We did not. The data will confirm what the scoreline already said, so there is little more to add.
Olmec Head Marcus (Coventry City) 05/25 - 6:30 PM