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Crewe Alexandra FC
Carl Oakes
 
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FA Shield Quarterfinals
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

CREWE ALEXANDRA FC                         BRISTOL CITY FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Per Holmdahl           13   -1   12     Gk Alberto Flores         14    1   15
Sw Piotr Sobolewski        7    2    9     Df Eugene Goodwin         13    1   14
Df Michaël Van der Heyden 13    2   15     Df Martin Rodríguez       13    1   14
Df Edwin O'Doherty        11    2   13     Df Willy Cerfbeer         12    2   14
Df Sion Davey             10    2   12     Mf Isaac Juhlin           13    2   15
Mf Santiago Castillo       5    2    7     Mf Isaac Semenyo          10    2   12
Mf Smahi Youssef          13    2   15     Mf Thomas Jacobs           8    2   10
Mf Mario Pletikosa        11    2   13     Fw Julius Nwosu           14    2   16
Fw Zvonimir Bradaric      12    2   14     Fw Ulf Helander           13    1   14
Fw Haroun Sassi           12    2   14     Fw Mbark Sabiri           10    2   12
Fw Joel Zamora            15    2   17     Fw Dafydd Chapman         10    2   12

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      12  9 40 35 45        ROSTER TOTALS      15  0 42 37 54    
       0  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  0  0  0    
=======================================================================
      12  9 40 35 54         T O T A L S       15  0 42 37 54    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Per Holmdahl: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.59 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 10.04 (no red card)

Sw Piotr Sobolewski: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 40.28 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 21.21 (no red card)

Df Michaël Van der Heyden: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 34.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.75 (no red card)

Df Edwin O'Doherty: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 87.91 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 45.3 (no red card)

Df Sion Davey: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 76.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 47.07 (no red card)

Mf Santiago Castillo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 19.46 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 88.22 (no red card)

Mf Smahi Youssef: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 12.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.91 (no red card)

Mf Mario Pletikosa: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 41.95 (no red card)

Fw Zvonimir Bradaric: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 16.47 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 63.79 (no red card)

Fw Haroun Sassi: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.5 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 11.62 (no red card)

Fw Joel Zamora: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 72.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 0.03 (STRAIGHT RED CARD! SENT OFF!!!)
      Joel Zamora new match skill level =  8
      Joel Zamora new match total level =  10

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 26.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 94.86 (no red card)

Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 49.16 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 78.78 (no red card)

Df Martin Rodríguez: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.96 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 14.96 (no red card)

Df Willy Cerfbeer: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.21 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 40.93 (no red card)

Mf Isaac Juhlin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 64.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 13.96 (no red card)

Mf Isaac Semenyo: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 65.85 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 34.74 (no red card)

Mf Thomas Jacobs: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.15 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 14.36 (no red card)

Fw Julius Nwosu: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 33.84 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 76.3 (no red card)

Fw Ulf Helander: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 30.81 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.91 (no red card)

Fw Mbark Sabiri: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 73.26 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.07 (no red card)

Fw Dafydd Chapman: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 63.29 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 93.42 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Per Holmdahl: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 71.39 (no injury) 
Sw Piotr Sobolewski: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 60.96 (no injury) 
Df Michaël Van der Heyden: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 33.13 (no injury) 
Df Edwin O'Doherty: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 56.3 (no injury) 
Df Sion Davey: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 4.74 (no injury) 
Mf Santiago Castillo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 30.3 (no injury) 
Mf Smahi Youssef: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 58.6 (no injury) 
Mf Mario Pletikosa: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 47.41 (no injury) 
Fw Zvonimir Bradaric: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 98.4 (no injury) 
Fw Haroun Sassi: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 45.75 (no injury) 
Fw Joel Zamora: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 47.95 (no injury) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Crewe Alexandra FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.5%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.25%
Gk Alberto Flores: Chance of injury = 1.25% | Random number = 9.89 (no injury) 
Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 60.04 (no injury) 
Df Martin Rodríguez: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 80.98 (no injury) 
Df Willy Cerfbeer: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 30.67 (no injury) 
Mf Isaac Juhlin: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 88.04 (no injury) 
Mf Isaac Semenyo: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 27.09 (no injury) 
Mf Thomas Jacobs: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 23.6 (no injury) 
Fw Julius Nwosu: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 8.92 (no injury) 
Fw Ulf Helander: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 11.67 (no injury) 
Fw Mbark Sabiri: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 95.71 (no injury) 
Fw Dafydd Chapman: Chance of injury = 2.5% | Random number = 91.65 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Michaël Van der Heyden SL 13
   - Defending Gk: Alberto Flores SL 14

     intRndPk = 28
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 28 (no penalty kick)

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Julius Nwosu SL 14
   - Defending Gk: Per Holmdahl SL 13

     intRndPk = 73
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 73 (no penalty kick)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  CREWE ALEXANDRA FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Crewe Alexandra FC       12   9  40  35  47
  Bristol City FC          15   0  42  37  54

Bristol City FC is using Offside Trap!
Crewe Alexandra FC Fw Attacks = 3 (47 - 42) * 0.5 (OST Multiplier) ; result rounded up
Crewe Alexandra FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((35 - 37) / 2;  rounded up)
Crewe Alexandra FC Df Attacks = 0 ((40 - 54) / 3;  rounded up)
Crewe Alexandra FC Total Attacks = 3

1: Attack for Fw Joel Zamora
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 92 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 0.32 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Joel Zamora
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 35 (Shot Off Target) 
3: Attack for Fw Zvonimir Bradaric
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 0; no Sw playing for Bristol City FC
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 42 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 73.75% | Random number = 49.52 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          15   0  42  37  54
  Crewe Alexandra FC       12   9  40  35  47

Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 14 (54 - 40); result rounded up
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((37 - 35) / 2) ; result rounded up
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((42 - 47) / 5;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 15

1: Attack for Mf Thomas Jacobs
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 77 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 72 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 15.76 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 39 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Fw Julius Nwosu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
4: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 27 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 12 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Julius Nwosu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 3 (Sw stopped attack) 
7: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 53 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 29 (Shot Off Target) 
8: Attack for Fw Julius Nwosu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 76 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 69 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 25.86 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
9: Attack for Fw Mbark Sabiri
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 53 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 4 (Shot Off Target) 
10: Attack for Fw Julius Nwosu
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 78 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
11: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 55 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 51 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 82.74 (GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!!) 
12: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 56 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 48 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 67.0% | Random number = 39.81 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
13: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 64 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 27 (Shot Off Target) 
14: Attack for Fw Ulf Helander
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 67 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 34 (Shot Off Target) 
15: Attack for Fw Dafydd Chapman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 48% | Random number = 5 (Sw stopped attack) 
===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
CREWE ALEXANDRA FC 0  -  BRISTOL CITY FC 1
 
Match Notes
Might need to take our socks off the add this up
Carl (Crewe Alexandra FC) 06/22 - 7:42 AM
are you tempting to poison the Bristol players with cheesy feet?
Vick (Weston-super-Mare AFC) 06/28 - 10:01 AM
If recent results are any indication, expect a draw.
Jason (Bristol City FC) 06/28 - 3:55 PM
We held the goal total down.
Carl (Crewe Alexandra FC) 06/29 - 7:57 AM
 
 
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