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Friday, February 6th, 2026 - 02:03:52 AM (gmt)
 
ball MSWL UNITED ① Season 51 // Landing
 
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Port Vale FC
John Holden
 
Bristol City FC
Jason Halpin
 
 
League Round 6
 
 
 
 

S  T  A  R  T  I  N  G      L  I  N  E  U  P  S

PORT VALE FC                               BRISTOL CITY FC

Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL     Ps Player Name            SL  FIT  LVL
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gk Dylan De boer          12    2   14     Gk Eugene Vasilev         12    2   14
Sw Fokke Taylor           13    0   13     Sw Atsushi Oshima         15    1   16
Df Carsten Kragelund      12    1   13     Df Yahya Cheddira         10    0   10
Df Ricardo Fernandes      11    1   12     Df Eugene Goodwin         10    0   10
Df Meliton López           3    2    5     Df Patrick LecLercq        7    2    9
Mf Alan Herdman           12    1   13     Df Cadwaladr Lewis         6    2    8
Mf Benedicto González      6    2    8     Df Sebastiaan Blind       11    1   12
Fw Adam Vasilev           15    1   16     Mf Valentin Gavranovic     7    2    9
Fw Abdeljalil El Ahmadi   15    0   15     Mf Samim Skov              3    2    5
Fw Hermidio Rivera        10    2   12     Fw Mislav Caleta-Car       7    2    9
Fw Ayrton Chamot           3    2    5     Fw Jacob Jones             7    2    9

      Gk Sw Df Mf Fw   A R E A  T O T A L S    Gk Sw Df Mf Fw
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
      14 13 30 21 48        ROSTER TOTALS      14 16 49 14 18    
       1  0  0  0  0          HARDNESS          0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  9       HOME ADVANTAGE       0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0  GREAT PERFORMANCE POINTS  0  0  0  0  0    
       0  0  0  0  0        PLAY FOR DRAW       0  0  2  5  0    
=======================================================================
      15 13 30 21 57         T O T A L S       14 16 51 19 18    

============================================================================
============================================================================
B  O  O  K  I  N  G  S

Each player is next given a chance for a yellow/red card.  The first
number listed is the chance for the player to get the yellow/red
card while the second number shows the random number drawn.  If the 
random number is less than or equal to the player's yellow/red card 
chance then the player is sent off.  Note that the chances are as follows:
	- Booking: 1.5 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness))
	- Red Card: 0.25 x (3 + (1.5 x Team_Hardness)))

If a player is booked we immediately draw a second number to check
for a 'second yellow' (red card chance) resulting in a sending off.
If a player is not booked we draw a red card chance to see if the player
was given a straight red card.  Note that the aforementioned formula
differs for a Gk where the formula uses the hardness points added to
your Gk area and NOT the team hardness points.

*******  PORT VALE FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 1
   - Gk   Hardness = 1

Gk Dylan De boer: Chance of booking = 6.75% | Random number = 1.44 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 1.0% | Random number = 65.71 (no red card)

Sw Fokke Taylor: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 39.38 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 62.06 (no red card)

Df Carsten Kragelund: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 45.27 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 8.12 (no red card)

Df Ricardo Fernandes: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 69.49 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 75.97 (no red card)

Df Meliton López: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 95.63 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 40.8 (no red card)

Mf Alan Herdman: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 2.69 (BOOKED!) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 40.71 (no second yellow)

Mf Benedicto González: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 13.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 63.88 (no red card)

Fw Adam Vasilev: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 53.8 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 59.32 (no red card)

Fw Abdeljalil El Ahmadi: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 32.86 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 35.24 (no red card)

Fw Hermidio Rivera: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 79.95 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 22.42 (no red card)

Fw Ayrton Chamot: Chance of booking = 6.0% | Random number = 33.93 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 1.0% | Random number = 95.26 (no red card)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC YELLOW/RED CARD CHANCES *******
   - Team Hardness = 0
   - Gk   Hardness = 0

Gk Eugene Vasilev: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 44.76 (no booking) 
   Chance of straight red card = 0.75% | Random number = 55.57 (no red card)

Sw Atsushi Oshima: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 85.39 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 22.12 (no red card)

Df Yahya Cheddira: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 54.67 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 71.95 (no red card)

Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 68.3 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 77.8 (no red card)

Df Patrick LecLercq: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.55 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 50.27 (no red card)

Df Cadwaladr Lewis: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 86.17 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 17.97 (no red card)

Df Sebastiaan Blind: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 89.41 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 96.25 (no red card)

Mf Valentin Gavranovic: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 98.35 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 81.36 (no red card)

Mf Samim Skov: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 32.98 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 24.72 (no red card)

Fw Mislav Caleta-Car: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 69.9 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 99.13 (no red card)

Fw Jacob Jones: Chance of booking = 4.5% | Random number = 58.1 (no booking) 
   Chance of second booking = 0.75% | Random number = 76.13 (no red card)
============================================================================
============================================================================
I  N  J  U  R  I  E  S

A major consequence of hardness is that your opponents get injured. 
For each player the chance of injury is:   
  ((your team’s hardness * .25) + (opponent’s hardness * .75) + 2.5)%.
    For example if your team has a hardness of 8 and the opposition has a hardness of 4,
    the chance of injury for each player would be: 2 + 3 + 2.5 or 7.5%.

The chance is halved for the opposition Gk. A player plays at half 
his normal level (skill plus fitness) in the match in which he is injured.

Injured players lose fitness as a result, the amount of fitness lost being
shown on the game report in brackets. There is a 30% chance of no fitness loss,
15% chance of 1 level fitness lost, 15% of 2 levels, and a 10% chance
of each of 3,4,5, or 6 fitness levels being lost. 
This fitness loss (if any) takes place at the end of the session, for 
reasons of simplicity. Should a player be injured twice or
more in a session, only the most severe injury will apply.


*******  PORT VALE FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 1
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 2.75%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.37%
Gk Dylan De boer: Chance of injury = 1.37% | Random number = 30.48 (no injury) 
Sw Fokke Taylor: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 16.38 (no injury) 
Df Carsten Kragelund: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 28.3 (no injury) 
Df Ricardo Fernandes: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 71.35 (no injury) 
Df Meliton López: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 0.58 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 1
      Meliton López is being assisted by the Physio.  He won't lose any fitness points, but he'll have to come off.
      Meliton López new match skill level =  2
      Meliton López new match total level =  4
Mf Alan Herdman: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 34.04 (no injury) 
Mf Benedicto González: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 11.45 (no injury) 
Fw Adam Vasilev: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 49.38 (no injury) 
Fw Abdeljalil El Ahmadi: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 64.36 (no injury) 
Fw Hermidio Rivera: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 2.44 (INJURED!) 
      Targeted fitness lost = 3
      Hermidio Rivera is being assisted by the Physio. He will lose 2 fitness points (deducted at end of session)
      Hermidio Rivera new match skill level =  5
      Hermidio Rivera new match total level =  7
Fw Ayrton Chamot: Chance of injury = 2.75% | Random number = 81.39 (no injury) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES FOR INJURY *******
   - Bristol City FC Team Hardness = 0
   - Port Vale FC Team Hardness = 1
   - All (except Gk) chance of injury = 3.25%
   - Gk chance of injury = 1.62%
Gk Eugene Vasilev: Chance of injury = 1.62% | Random number = 13.56 (no injury) 
Sw Atsushi Oshima: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 83.53 (no injury) 
Df Yahya Cheddira: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 81.15 (no injury) 
Df Eugene Goodwin: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 72.92 (no injury) 
Df Patrick LecLercq: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 72.96 (no injury) 
Df Cadwaladr Lewis: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 57.37 (no injury) 
Df Sebastiaan Blind: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 51.05 (no injury) 
Mf Valentin Gavranovic: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 70.81 (no injury) 
Mf Samim Skov: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 96.23 (no injury) 
Fw Mislav Caleta-Car: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 71.29 (no injury) 
Fw Jacob Jones: Chance of injury = 3.25% | Random number = 46.06 (no injury) 
============================================================================
============================================================================
P  E  N  A  L  T  Y     K  I  C  K  S

There is a 10% chance of conceding a penalty for every hardness point used.
Each 10% chance is separate, so a team could concede as many penalties as it plays
hardness points. If no hardness is used, there is still a 5% penalty chance. 
The chance of a penalty being scored is: 
  50 + (4 x penalty takers skill) - (2 x Gk skill)  %    (to a maximum 95%)

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 0; (1 5% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Adam Vasilev SL 15
   - Defending Gk: Eugene Vasilev SL 12

     intRndPk = 48
1: Chance of PK occurring = 5% | Random number = 48 (no penalty kick)

*******  PORT VALE FC CHANCES OF ALLOWING PENALTY KICKS *******
   - Team Hardness: 1; (1 10% chance of yielding a PK)
   - PK Taker: Sebastiaan Blind SL 11
   - Defending Gk: Dylan De boer SL 12

1: Chance of PK occurring = 10% | Random number = 2 (PENALTY KICK!)
   Chance of scoring = 70% | Random number = 32 (PENALTY KICK GOOOAAALLL!!!)
============================================================================
============================================================================
A  T  T  A  C  K  I  N  G      C  H  A  N  C  E  S      &      S  H  O  T  S

  (i)   If team A's Fw area total is greater than team B's Df area total, 
        then A earns a number of attacks equal to the difference.
        Note: A Sw  does NOT add his levels to the Df in this league! 

  (ii)  The team with the highest Mf area total gets attacks equal to half
        the difference.

  (iii) If team A's Df area total is greater than team B's Fw total, then  
        team A earns a number of attacks equal to one fifth of the difference.
        If team A is playing a sweeper behind the defence, this rises to one 
        third of the difference.  All fractions of attacks are rounded up, 
        and then each of the attacks is treated as follows to see how many 
        produce shots, then goals: 

  (iv)  Attacks have first to beat the Sw (if playing!).  For each attack,
        there is a percentage chance of it being stopped equal to:
              30 + (Sw level x 2) % 
        (eg a level 10 Sw stops 30+10x2=50% of attacks.) Attacks passing the 
        Sw become shots.

  (v)   Each shot has a 35% chance of being off-target. If a side has scored
        2 goals this rises to 40%, then by a further 5% after each goal scored,
        to a maximum of 75%. This is to curb ridiculous scorelines (with luck!)

  (vi)  Finally, on-target shots come up against the  Gk. This is similar to 
        the Sw test, but the percentage is:
        40 + (Gk level x 2.25) % 

  Notes: If the defense is playing offside trap then the offensive team has
         their Fw attacks cut in half and theor Mf attacks doubled.

         A team choosing to PFD has 7 extra levels to split between Sw, 
         Df and Mf areas, but their attacks for each area will be halved 
         (round up fractions).

*******  PORT VALE FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Port Vale FC             15  13  29  21  52
  Bristol City FC          14  16  51  19  18

Port Vale FC Fw Attacks = 1 (52 - 51); result rounded up
Port Vale FC Mf Attacks = 1 ((21 - 19) / 2) ; result rounded up
Port Vale FC Df Attacks = 4 ((29 - 18) / 3); result rounded up
Port Vale FC Total Attacks = 6

1: Attack for Df Carsten Kragelund
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 93 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 46 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 4.81 (Shot Saved by Gk) 
2: Attack for Df Ricardo Fernandes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 20 (Sw stopped attack) 
3: Attack for Df Ricardo Fernandes
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 82 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 30 (Shot Off Target) 
4: Attack for Df Carsten Kragelund
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 4 (Sw stopped attack) 
5: Attack for Mf Alan Herdman
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 38 (Sw stopped attack) 
6: Attack for Fw Adam Vasilev
    Chance of Sw stopping attack = 62% | Random number = 83 (Sw did not stop attack!!) 
     Chance of Shot Off Target = 35% | Random number = 74 (Shot On Target) 
      Chance of Gk Save = 71.5% | Random number = 47.07 (Shot Saved by Gk) 

*******  BRISTOL CITY FC ATTACKING CHANCES AND SHOTS *******
  AREA TOTALS             GK  Sw  Df  Mf  Fw
  -------------------------------------------
  Bristol City FC          14  16  51  19  18
  Port Vale FC             15  13  29  21  52

Bristol City FC is Playing For A Draw!
Bristol City FC Fw Attacks = 0 (18 - 29)
Bristol City FC Mf Attacks = 0 ((19 - 21) / 2;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Df Attacks = 0 ((51 - 52) / 3;  rounded up)
Bristol City FC Total Attacks = 0

===============================================
     F  I  N  A  L         S  C  O  R  E
PORT VALE FC 0  -  BRISTOL CITY FC 1
 
Match Notes
We haven't beaten Port Vale away in the league for six seasons.
Jason (Bristol City FC) 01/31 - 4:51 PM
It's a miracle!
Jason (Bristol City FC) 01/31 - 7:04 PM
 
 
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