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Olmec Smiled on You (Season 9 recap)
Posted by Kevin Martin on Tuesday, Aug. 29th, 2023 at 5:21 AM

Got several questions back in reply to my post on how teams fared when expected to win or lose a match based on the average player ratings being higher or lower than the other team.  One of the most repeated was, "Who was the luckiest team last season?"  When deciding who was favored, I'm comparing the average team ratings as shown on the match results pages, with the higher average player rating being the favored team.  +1 would mean a close match where a team is very narrowly favored.  At +8 or higher, a loss is rare.  I'll throw out my five nominees and let you decide. Listed alphabetically:

Alton Screaming Eagles.  When favored to win a match, they went a perfect 18-0.  No one else who was favored in 11 or more matches escaped being upset at least once.  Alton also went a respectable 3-2 in 5-set matches, and won twice when narrowly outmatched in the -1 to -2 range.

Burlington Bullfrogs.  When at +2 or more over the opposition, Burlington went 18-0.  They dropped just one match when favored narrowly at +1, finishing at the fourth highest expected win rate, 94.7%.  Additionally, they won more than 25% of their matches when NOT favored.  In 5-set matches, they went 6-1, finishing with the best winning percentage in 5-set matches.

Cincinnati Winged Hogs.  James' team was the only one who won at least 3 matches when the underdog by 5 or more ratings points.  In fact, they won more than they lost when expected to lose based on ratings points, at 4-3, the only team with a winning percentage over all matches where they were in the negative for player ratings.  They also pulled off a 6-2 record in 5-set matches, behind only Burlington for the season in win rate for those.

Dallas Bulldogs.  When favored to win, Dallas was one of only two teams other than Alton to win every time, going a perfect 10-0 in those matches.  Additionally, Craig pulled off two upsets when the other team was favored by at least 7 ratings points.  Dallas also played in the most 5-set matches last season, 11 total, getting the extra XP from those and winning his fair share at 6-5 overall in 5-set clashes.

Nashville Red Pandas.  Roy pulled off a top 10 upset, winning a match despite a -9 rating.  When expected to win at +2 or higher, the Red Pandas were a perfect 16-0.  Their winning ways extended even to the slight underdog matches, going 20-2 overall when they were rated at -4 or higher, and winning 75% of their matches in the competitive range of +4 to -4, third highest rate in the league.  They also went 4-2 in 5-set matches for a respectable winning clip on the 'toss up' final sets.  

Honorably lucky mentions:
Denali went 11-2 in the 'close match range' of +4 to -4, including 6-1 when the underdog by 1-4 pts, leading the league with a 84.6% win rate in close matches.  They would have made the final 5 cut if they had not also suffered a top 10 upset against them (losing a match when +9).
Manitowoc didn't get much love in the close matches when they were just a touch weaker than the opponent.  However, they were a perfect 2-0 when favored, and they were also the only team to pull off TWO of the top 10 upsets of the season, winning matches when at -10 and -12 (the #1 overall upset).
Portland went 13-0 when favored by +3 or more, and had a 80% win rate in close matches (+4 to -4), 2nd highest rate in the league.  Needed a stronger upset (best was when -6) or one less loss when favored to make the final cut for luckiest teams.

Readers Comments

Presumably Craig's against the odds success is down to being a tactical genius, while James just seems to understand how to play the game.

Roger Mendonça on Tuesday, Aug. 29th, 2023 at 9:07 AM
 

Amazing posts here, thanks Kevin!

No surprises to see Dallas (tactical genius) going 10-0...

Also, no surprises to see Alton and Dr. White at 18-0 when favo(u)red...

Allan Sellers on Tuesday, Aug. 29th, 2023 at 10:39 PM
 

I am voting for myself on this one. 

Aires Martins Jr on Wednesday, Aug. 30th, 2023 at 3:44 AM
 

Unfortrunately my tactical geniusness (can I say that? I have anyway) stuttered and came grinding to a halt after the mid season 'break'....when Conference matchhes resumed, I'd already gone on holiday celebrating the Conference title.....that never came

Craig Bucknall on Tuesday, Sep. 5th, 2023 at 6:21 PM