Dude, Where's My RP?!?

This season at BUM Central we have been tracking a new stat (for us) to see how the Haves and the Have Nots of the TMVL world play out their recruiting strategies.  It has become abundantly clear that some teams are much more aggressive in getting in as many chances as possible to try to steal a player at a bargain.  Other teams focus their efforts on just a few, and don't bother trying to get a good deal or run up the price on other managers to limit the number of 5* guys they can get this season.

Please totally take this column as judgment on certain managers, because that's more fun for the comments section!

At the same time, there are some very good reasons why managers might bid on players in phase 1 and then drop out during phase 2.  For example: they got a player at that position in the prior auction round and no longer need to continue bidding for that position; they got a player in the prior auction round and no longer have the RP to make a competitive (or any) bid in phase 3; more managers than expected appear to be competing in phase 2 and the chances of winning in phase 3 are really low (or none) so dropping now saves a few RP to invest in the next session; a team with way more RP just jumped in on phase 2 and now your own RP total isn't going to cut it, etc.  Similarly, there are good reasons to jump into the bidding at phase 2 and pay the penalty of double-RP: nobody bid in on phase 1 and it's a minimum bid player at this point; you forgot to bid in phase 1 and really need that player/position so it's worth the extra RP to you; the teams listed for phase 2 all have lower RP totals than you, so you could jump in and bully your way to an auction win; or maybe you really, really don't like a manager that appears to be likely to win the player, and consider it worth it to spend 100 RP to make them pay several hundred RP more to win that 5* +2 skill player that's going to hurt your team for the next 4 seasons.  In any case, sometimes it's worth it to bid early and drop out, or jump in late and bid through.

Sometimes though, jumping in late when a team has almost no chance of winning the bid in phase 3 makes no apparent sense.  It's up to the beholder to decide whether or not the teams spending more RP are getting appropriate returns or not.  To that end, we present the RP totals spent on recruiting in phases 1 & 2 this season, broken down by team, total RP spent, players marked in phase 1 (with total RP), players marked in phase 2 (with total RP), and how many players were recruited in phase 2 only - thus paying the 'double-RP' tax for skipping phase 1.  Finally, it seems appropriate to show how this played out team-by-team with who got recruited for their efforts.  I know, there's still one more session to go for phase 3 recruiting, so it's not quite done yet.  To that end, I will list a final parenthetical player for each of the 9 remaining players to be recruited, based off who has the most RP at each auction point, showing which team would win the bid if they bid as much as they could.

The List (sorted by total RP spent on phases 1 & 2 combined, not spend on actual phase 3 player bids)

Team - Total RP - Phase 1 players (RP) - Phase 2 players (RP) - # of phase 2 only bids (double penalty paid)

Carlsbad - 1350 RP - Ph1 24 (500) - Ph2 23 (850) - 6 Ph2 only (+250).
5*OH, 4*S, 3*MB max atk

Santa Clara - 1275 RP - Ph1 17 (375) - Ph2 18 (900) - 8 Ph2 only (+340).
4*S

Dallas - 1070 RP - Ph1 26 (555) - Ph2 24 (515) - 0 Ph2 only.
4*OH +1 srv, 4*OH

Teutopolis - 870 RP - Ph1 14 (325) - Ph2 17 (545) - 3 Ph2 only (+110)
4*OH max srv, 4*MB (poss 3*OH max rcv)

San Diego - 735 RP - Ph1 19 (425) - Ph2 14 (310) - 0 Ph2 only
4*OH, 4*RS

St. Charles - 710 RP - Ph1 14 (315) - Ph2 15 (395) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
5*MB max atk, 4*MB, 3*RS max atk

Mat-Su - 670 RP - Ph1 17 (355) - Ph2 15 (315) - 0 Ph2 only
5*L max def, 3*OH +1 atk, 3*MB max blk (possible 5*MB)

Mendon - 625 RP - Ph1 14 (315) - Ph2 10 (310) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
5*S max blk, 4*OH, 4*L

Quincy - 615 RP - Ph1 14 (330) - Ph2 12 (285) - 0 Ph2 only
5*MB +2 blk, 4*L max rcv (poss 4*OH)

Baton Rouge - 585 RP - Ph 1 13 (265) - Ph2 11 (320) - 2 Ph2 only (+70)
4*RS, 4*MB

Tucson - 575 RP - Ph1 13 (280) - Ph2 11 (295) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
4*L +2 rcv, 4*RS (poss 4*MB)

Alton - 565 RP - Ph1 14 (320) - Ph2 11 (245) - 0 Ph2 only
5*L, 4*S, 3*MB max atk (poss 5*OH +1 srv)

Albuquerque - 560 RP - Ph1 13 (280) - Ph2 13 (280) - 0 Ph2 only
4*S (poss 4*RS)

Arlington - 550 RP - Ph1 17 (335) - Ph2 11 (215) - 0 Ph2 only
4*OH +1 rcv, 3*MB +1 srv, 3*S max srv, 3*L max srv

Columbia - 550 RP - Ph1 12 (285) - Ph2 11 (265) - 0 Ph2 only
5*RS +1 blk, 5*MB

Denali - 550 RP - Ph1 12 (275) - Ph2 12 (275) - 0 Ph2 only
5*OH, 4*MB, 4*L (could win 2nd 5*OH or 4*OH, but just got 5*OH in session 11)

Cincinnati - 485 RP - Ph1 11 (255) - Ph2 10 (230) - 0 Ph2 only
5*OH, 5*L, 4*MB +1 srv

Merritt Island - 480 RP - Ph1 9 (200) - Ph2 10 (280) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
5*RS, 4*S, 3*RS max atk

Portland - 470 RP - Ph1 13 (280) - Ph2 9 (190) - 0 Ph2 only
5*OH max rcv, 4*MB (poss 4*L)

San Jose - 465 RP - Ph1 9 (205) - Ph2 9 (260) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
5*L +1 srv, 4*S +1 srv, 4*MB

Kentucky - 460 RP - Ph1 14 (300) - Ph2 6 (160) - 0 Ph2 only
5*OH, 5*MB, 4*RS

Spokane - 460 RP - Ph1 11 (240) - Ph2 10 (220) - 0 Ph2 only
4*RS +2 atk, 4*MB max blk (poss 3*S +2 srv)

New Orleans - 455 RP - Ph1 11 (225) - Ph2 8 (230) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
5*MB, 4*OH, 4*MB, 4*L

Burlington - 430 RP - Ph1 7 (165) - Ph2 8 (265) - 1 Ph2 only (+50)
5*S max blk, 4*OH max atk

Antioch - 395 RP - Ph1 10 (210) - Ph2 9 (185) - 0 Ph2 only
4*S, 4*OH, 4*RS, 4*MB max atk

Nashville - 395 RP - Ph1 10 (215) - Ph2 8 (180) - 0 Ph2 only
5*S, 4*OH

Schenectady - 345 RP - Ph1 7 (155) - Ph2 6 (190) - 1 Ph2 only (+40)
5*MB, 4*OH (poss 4*MB)

Starkville - 340 RP - Ph1 5 (120) - Ph2 6 (220) - 1 Ph2 only (+50)
5*MB +1 atk, 5*RS max srv, 4*L max rcv

Sheboygan - 325 RP - Ph1 8 (185) - Ph2 6 (140) - 0 Ph2 only
5*OH, 5*MB, 3*RS +2 blk

Ames - 260 RP - Ph1 7 (140) - Ph2 6 (120) - 0 Ph2 only
5*OH, 5*RS, 3*OH max atk

Manitowoc - 180 RP - Ph1 2 (40) - Ph2 2 (140) - 2 Ph2 only (+70)
none

Pekin - 125 RP - Ph1 3 (75) - Ph2 2 (50) - 0 Ph2 only
5*S +2 set, 5*OH

As Al likes to note, the rich get richer in recruiting as well.  Those teams with the most RP going into this season mostly fared well.  They were able to set their sights on a few players, minimizing RP lost chasing multiples at the same position, and bully their way to the top spot based on having the most RP.  No need to look for bargains.  They saved RP on minimal bidding to make up for paying higher in phase 3.  Here are your top 8 in RP to start season 16, the 8 teams that started over 2000 RP, what they spent in recruiting phases 1 & 2, and how they fared in winning phase 3 bids:

Cincinnati, starting RP 2500.  485 RP spent on 11 players.  5*OH, 5*L, 4*MB
Manitowoc, starting RP 2500. 180 RP spent on 4 players. None recruited.
Pekin, starting RP 2474.  125 RP spent on 3 players.  5*S, 5*OH
Denali, starting RP 2352.  550 RP spent on 12 players.  5*OH, 4*MB, 4*L (2nd OH in last session?)
Ames, starting RP 2186.  260 RP spent on 7 players.  5*OH, 5*RS, 3*OH
Kentucky, starting RP 2173.  460 RP spent on 14 players.  5*OH, 5*MB, 4*RS
Mendon, starting RP 2105.  625 RP spent on 15 players. 5*S, 4*OH, 4*L
Alton, starting RP 2036.  565 RP spent on 14 players.  5*L, 4*S, 3*MB (poss 5*OH or 4*OH in last session)

League average is 560 RP spent on phase 1 + phase 2 recruiting costs.  6 of the 8 teams starting with over 2000 RP spent under that, and Alton came in just over at 565, with Mendon spending the most at 625.  7 of the 8 teams starting with over 2000 RP got a 5* player, and 4 of them got 2 5* players (with either Denali or Alton being in the driver's seat to get a 2nd one also, depending on Andy's plans).  That makes 7 of the 8 starting over 2000 RP getting 2 5*s, or a 5* and 2 4*s this season once the last session is done.  Derek's squad is the sole outlier, due mainly to Derek's aversion to in-season recruiting.

The pathway to multiple 5* victory seems apparent.  Scrimp and save to finish a season at 1500 RP or above, so you start next season above the 2000 RP line.  Then target only a handful of players to bid high on, either outgunning the competition or forcing a fellow rich team to burn their warchest and giving you the advantage on the next 5* at your desired position.

Who is currently on pace to achieve that 1500+ RP mark heading into next season?

Albuquerque - 2065 (though they are likely to drop below with an auction win as the top team in #4 this session)
Alton - 1452 (though likely to drop as well, with a win in #1 or #3)
Denali - 1487 (if Andy doesn't try to win a 2nd OH at #1 or #3, as the top RP currently at either auction slot)
Manitowoc - 3860 (will start at 2500, due to RP off-season cap)
Portland - 1306 (on pace between last session RP+bonuses, though could drop with a #8 win, top RP)
Quincy - 1320 (on pace, though could drop if Denali don't want another OH, and Alton wins #1, leaving Quincy top in #3)
San Diego - 1406 (on pace)

That makes it really interesting overall, as we might only see 3 teams at 2000+ depending on the last auctions, though conference and tourney bonuses are going to push some other teams closer.  I haven't tabbed that out yet, as tourney finals and final conference standings are still to play.  Only the PAC 8 title is decided, and we have a three-way tie for 2nd place there currently.

By way of trivia, who started this season with the least RP who still nabbed 2 5* players?  John H & Sheboygan!  They started this season at 1785 RP, and landed a 5*OH, 5*MB, and a 3*RS.  That was just ahead of Eduard & Starkville (1820) who got a 5*RS, 5*MB, and 4*L.

Your thoughts on how your recruiting went this season and whether or not you spent RP well?  Or your thoughts or pushbacks on recruiting strategies that seem to paying off the best currently?  Comment below to the edification (or at least amusement) of all!