Session 1.

We played 2 hard in the first two games and our opponents 0. We got an injury apiece, which is ok as the chance of either team being injury free in both games would be about 40-50%. Our injury cost us 3 Fw attacks and gave KIN 1 Df attack and with a better Gk/Sw combo we might have won but 1-1 was fair. We also picked up more yellow cards over the 2 games, which is also fair.

In the 3rd game both teams played 5 hard but we got a penalty. Both teams had a 6 EL injury that cost their team more than ours (we were playing a lot of low SL players though) but didn't affect the final result.

Verdict: neutral

Session 2

We played 2 hard in each game and our opponents 3 in one game. No penalties in any of the games. So far we haven't given up a penalty in 15 hard and have received 1 for 8 hard so luck on our side there.

However we got hit for injuries picking up 4 for 0, 5, 6 and 6 and only gave 2 for 1 and 6. The injuries in the 2nd and 3rd game didn't affect the results though the scorelines might have been bigger a bigger win and a smaller loss for us.

However in the 1st game we drew 0-0 after outplaying KIN and with average luck would have expected a 2-0 win.

Although the injuries didn't affect the results it did knock three top players, including our Gk,  out of session 3.

Verdict: Olmec starting to dislike me a little.

Session 4

I know Steve will provide the detailed analysis but I'm going to go ahead and say that Olmec liked him A LOT this session.  :-)

Session 3 (I'm a week behind, Al, and haven't checked session 4 yet)

Due to the Gk problem I decided to play hard in all 3 games. First up the game versus Tonbridge where I played 10 hard and they played 6. With 10 hard there is a 35% chance of getting away with 0 penalties, 38% chance of giving up 1 and 27% chance of giving away 2 or more. Of course we fall in the 27% chance. Meanwhile Tonbridge with 6 hard have a 53% chance of getting away with it and do. We're a bit unlucky there but over all the season we've given away 3 penalties playing a total of 35 hard, which is 'right', same with the 1 penalty for the 14 hard against us.

However the goals expected was against us. I don't take into affect the shot on target chance being reduced and it turns out the penalties are counted first but with our shot chances versus their Sw/Gk combo I work it out at 2.4 goals and we got 4. But theirs was 1.85 goals and they got 5. A game that could easliy have been a draw ended up a 7-4 loss - and the injuries that both sides suffered cost us 3 attacks as well.

The other two games wewren't affected by luck all that much. We got a red card and caused a 0 injury with 5 hard in one game but were playing so weak we easily lost. In the other we gave away a penalty (40% chance) and on average would have had 1.5 goals, so on average we'd have won by 1 goal. We won 3-1.

Verdict: A little more hurt by Olmec

Session 4.

This was our best session for results ever and the first time this season I didn't play any hardness. We did pick up an injury in the first game and our opponents had their Gk sent off and they played 2 hard. However we were the stronger side and the averages said we should have won about 2-0 even without their injury.

In the second game we won 1-0 "as expected" and the third 4-1 rather than the odds 2-0.

Verdict: neutral this session

not had the chance to update this session but I think we deserved at least a draw against KIN and a draw against BUR seemed fair as well.  Olmec still not doing me any favours and it's looking like another average season

I haven't had many chances to update this for a while but I'll point everyone to the FA Cup final. We played 4 hard and Boston played 5 hard. We both gave away a penalty.

However we had 3 injuries and they had 0. The physio helped one of our players but overall it went from a 41 to 33 shot chance in our favour to 35 to 40 in theirs. Goal chance was 4.8% for us and 4.3% for them.

I'll look at penalties (how many per hard) and injuries (average value of injury) later as it's back to work time.

We played 52 hard and gave away 5 penalties
We received 58 hard and got 5 penalties
We played 0 hard 14 times for 0 penalties
We played against 0 hard 17 times and got 1 penalty

Injuries cost us again
We got 18, with 5 not needing the player to go off for an average pre-physio score of 2.666
We gave just 11, with 4 not needing the player to go off for an average of 2.182

The average over many throws of Olmec is 2.25 and like last season injuries cost us more than we dealt out, which means less value in all areas

One last comment from me. This wasn't planned to be an Olmec hates me set of posts (there's not that many games where Olmec made a great deal of difference) just a running commentary because we always remember where we've been hard done to but not so much when we've been lucky. Having said that the FA Cup Final was harsh.

And although I know Al is joking in the poll, I haven't always been hurt by Olmec. I won't forget SESL where we had no chance in Season 16 with 2 games to go, but won our last 2 games and DFA only got 1 draw. I'd pretty much cracked that version of Olmec by then, swapping teams and building up a weak team to nearly getting the Div 1 title again (we were unlucky in the final run in there though).

I just haven't cracked this version and am enjoying trying to.

Steve is spot on with the comment of: "we always remember where we've been hard done to but not so much when we've been lucky".

I know some sessions I come away thinking "wow, I had some good luck there"...and others where "well, that was AWFUL luck"...but the bad luck ones seem to stick with you more often.

Glad to hear that Steve hasn't cracked this version yet but enjoying it.

And I have to say I really, really...okay one more...REALLY appreciate posts like this.  I have a lot of choices for how to spend and focus my time.  The more input/comments/feedback/contributions I see...the more I want to put into the game.

So sometimes if you are sitting there thinking "why bother commenting"...please do...have some fun...its just a game.