Recent Entries
 | Division One odds Posted by |
I had one goal this season - don't get relegated!
After an amazing start to the season - 22 points, already Rushden's third-best point total in the top flight ever with six games to play - I wanted to see if we were well and truly safe from the drop. It's truly remarkable given we're one of the worst teams in the division statistically and had this pegged as a rebuilding year - and have only won one game that's not a league game the entire season(!)
The first answer was more than Wimbledon are basically already champions, but my second answer was yes - when we get relegated this year it will be from a 99% chance of staying up at this point.
That being said, here's the simulated final table using a team's T16 to run a simple little ELO simulation. Each number in the table is the percentage multiplied by 100, so Wimbledon have a 99.495% chance of finishing top. (Oh, and I assumed Wimbledon would beat us next weekend. So it's not a completely "true" sim because OLMEC could still OLMEC, but I'm not betting on it at all.)
Still lots of competition for the drop!
| Team/Position | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | Avg Points | Avg Pos |
| AFC Wimbledon 1 | 99.495 | 0.499 | 0.007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38.38012 | 1.005 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2 | 0.291 | 42.568 | 24.237 | 15.725 | 9.58 | 5.191 | 1.931 | 0.432 | 0.044 | 0.002 | 27.7505 | 3.175 |
| Clevedon Town 6 | 0.054 | 22.056 | 21.322 | 16.734 | 13.13 | 9.77 | 7.224 | 4.993 | 3.221 | 1.497 | 26.18483 | 4.338 |
| Shepshed Dynamo 4 | 0.042 | 12.55 | 15.717 | 16.192 | 15.66 | 13.753 | 10.836 | 8.123 | 5.024 | 2.104 | 24.72421 | 5.050 |
| Burton Albion 5 | 0.041 | 11.056 | 15.61 | 17.701 | 16.655 | 13.667 | 10.522 | 7.614 | 4.912 | 2.223 | 24.80844 | 5.061 |
| Luton Town 3 | 0.078 | 7.149 | 11.956 | 13.981 | 14.921 | 15.389 | 14.632 | 11.849 | 7.473 | 2.573 | 23.72829 | 5.633 |
| Boston United 8 | 0 | 1.849 | 4.514 | 7.486 | 10.694 | 14.209 | 15.924 | 16.4 | 14.962 | 13.963 | 22.06901 | 7.029 |
| Kendal Town 7 | 0 | 0.879 | 2.755 | 5.176 | 8.038 | 11.437 | 15.352 | 18.825 | 19.029 | 18.51 | 21.27861 | 7.540 |
| York City 9 | 0 | 1.056 | 2.521 | 4.376 | 6.619 | 9.264 | 12.901 | 16.929 | 23.28 | 23.055 | 20.9961 | 7.817 |
| Halifax Town 10 | 0 | 0.339 | 1.362 | 2.63 | 4.704 | 7.321 | 10.679 | 14.836 | 22.056 | 36.074 | 19.4557 | 8.354 |
I can update this weekly if people are interested.
Cheers!
John
Readers Comments
It is unbelievable that Rebuilding Dave can somehow win ANOTHER title whilst rebuilding.
I love the analysis, thanks John!
Also noted is the I-Man in the Drop Zone. I can't see real good, is that "Rebuilding Ian"?
Rebuilding Dave is 99% certain to win the league. I could've told you this at the beginning of the season.
I'd also hasten to point out that while we won't win the 1st division this year, we're currently in a creditable 2nd place in the "Olmec hates you" standings. Is there a monetary award for this?
I'm glad you asked I-Man. The answer is YES there is an award:
- one, slightly used, 22 year old Lake District hat (as pictured below)
While everyone says WIM win a title every year, the fact is we only have 1 title the past 6 seasons. Remember how we were undefeated going into session 10 last season and somehow finished second? We do.......
I'm pretty sure a hailstorm smashed that table a few weeks after the I-Man left...
I won't be getting relegated from Div. ! this season
A bit late to the party, but great stuff, John! Like RUSH, LUT seemed a dead ringer for relegation when rthe season started, yet somehow survived. LUT and RUSH were tied for lowest T11 at season's end, and LUT held lowest T16 alone. We lurked around 2nd/3rd for much of the season, but finished 7th, which was much closer to reality. The division was so tight that we dropped 4 spots in Session 10 and were on the brink of final-week relegation (though I think we would have been saved by the result of the YOR/KIN match either way, albeit razor thin).